【转载翻译】币圈人看过来!从投资者的角度谈【比特币】和两种【山寨币】

原文链接:https://woobull.com/the-two-types-of-altcoins-an-investors-view/

The two types of Altcoins, an investor's view

从投资者的角度谈两种山寨币

This is a thread on altcoins, first published on Twitter.

这是一篇关于山寨币的长文,原文发在Twitter上

Altcoins are nuanced. We have:
  • Protocol coins
  • Utility tokens
  • Security tokens
  • Non-fungible tokens

But to an investor, there's only 2 types. Oscillators and Degenerators.
You can spot them on this chart of the entire market.

山寨币种类繁多,千差万别,涵盖了:
  • 协议币
  • 实用性代币
  • 安全性代币
  • 不可替代型代币(币圈人注:最近爆炒的NFT就是这玩意)

但是对投资者来讲只有两种:振荡币和衰减币(我币圈人称之为归零币,当然是对于比特币来说价格归零,美元价格可能几年不涨)。

我们可以在这幅图上,从这个市场的表现中看出来。

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIv1HMYUEAYvCsl?format=jpg&name=orig

The vast majority of alt-coins are Degenerators. Their price chart has a measurable half-life, like radioactive decay. Plotted on a log chart, it's a straight line down.
This one is Namecoin, a promising coin of its era, there's over 2000 examples like this.

市场上绝大多数都是衰减币,这些币(相对比特币)价格的半衰期相当明显,犹如放射性元素衰变一般。在对数价格(比如0.1、1、10、100之类纵轴)的图表上,币价呈直线下降趋势。

这是Namecoin(域名币)的价格,当年(2013)看起来基本面挺好,前途一片光明。2000多种币都是这个德性(币圈人注:还在不断增加)。

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIv1J4FUcAATt5s?format=jpg&name=orig

Only a small handful are Oscillators.

只有极少数是振荡币。

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIv1KvwUcAEv-1j?format=jpg&name=orig

(币圈人注:蓝线为LTC莱特币,黄线为XLM星际币,绿线为DOGE狗狗币)

Oscillators are proving store of value (SoV) properties. To qualify they need to keep up with BTCUSD gains. To find them, plot their BTC value. It must oscillate around a horizontal line, for at least one full bull-bear cycle (around 4yrs). More cycles are better.
Let me bring up this Oscillator. It's DOGE, a coin that was created as a joke, it has had no active development for years. It's a humour fork of Bitcoin offering no technical innovation.

振荡币被证明有保值属性。一个币想成为振荡币,必须跟上比特币美元价格的步伐。
要找出振荡币,就把这个币对于比特币的价格画出来,币价必须在一条横线周围波动,持续时间至少需要一个牛熊周期(4年左右),越久越好。
我们提一下其中一个振荡币,这是DOGE(狗狗币)价格走势,开发出来就是为了开个玩笑,几年了都没有活跃开发,明摆着就是个比特币的搞笑分叉币,没有技术创新。

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIv1Lp9U4AAbtOa?format=png&name=orig

And it's a freaking oscillator.

惊不惊喜,意不意外?这特么居然是个振荡币。

DOGE achieved SoV because of Lindy Effect. It's listed on nearly all exchanges, it's supported by most wallets, it has a liquid market.
Note I didn't say it has cutting edge technology, scaleability, fancy smart contracts, governance, or has solved sharding. I point this out to mock the common thought train that you need innovation and cutting edge tech to build value in your coin. These are monetary instruments, they build value with economic network effects.
Here's an interesting one...

狗狗币由于林迪效应(币圈人注:编程随想也有提,见20.3处),实现了保值功能。这币在几乎所有交易所都有上架,被许多钱包支持,市场流动性也挺大。
注意,我【并没有说】狗狗币有多么先进的技术,有多好的可扩展性,还是花哨的智能合约或者治理,抑或是解决了分片问题。
我只是来反驳“一个币必须创新,使用先进技术才能实现价值”的常见思维误区。这些都是货币工具,通过经济学上的网络效应才能实现价值。

这个币也挺有趣的:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIv1MyfUYAAxOF9?format=png&name=orig

It's DCRBTC. It's at a critical stage coming onto completing it's very first full bull-bear cycle, it needs to emerge cleanly holding it's horizontal oscillation against BTC. Only then can we say it's achieving SoV properties.

这是Decred(DCR)相对于比特币的价格。此币即将完成一个牛熊周期,现进入关键节点,只有币价围绕着一条横线上下波动才会有储值属性(币圈人注:此文写于2019年11月,我刚看了下DCR/BTC走势,相当不起眼,要加油涨啊,,,)

If you plan on being in altcoins here's my rules of engagement:
  • It's critical to determine a Oscillator from a Degenerator.
  • Oscillators are good to enter and exit to stack more BTC.
  • Never HODL a Degen, period. GTFO.
  • Be careful on the coins younger than one full cycle.



如果你想炒山寨币,注意以下几点:
  • 从满市场的衰减币(归零币)中找出振荡币
  • 振荡币建议低进高出,目的是增持比特币(币圈人注:这是比特币本位的玩法,法币什么的弱爆了)
  • 千万不要长线持有衰减币,有多远滚多远!
  • 对于没有经过一轮4年牛熊周期考验的币,请务必小心


币圈人总结

炒币人士建议换个思维,,,
炒山寨币盯着美元价格是普通币圈小(jiu)散(cai)的玩法,你的收益说不定都跑不赢比特币,,,
盯着比特币价格才是币圈大师级骨灰玩家的玩法,牛市初期,比特币高点乘机把比特币换成低位的山寨币,山寨币涨了再换回来,,,
当然,这样子玩,你眼中的牛熊周期和别人的就不一样,价格走势也不一样,因为你的目标是持有更多比特币,而不是美元人民币等法币,,,
各大交易所也有XXX/BTC交易对,山寨币和比特币之间可以互换,,,
顺便一提,这么说各国法币也是衰减币(归零币),,,
7
分享 2021-04-18

20 个评论

>> 纠正一下,是21000000(2100万),,,而且你这种算法叫做Fully Diluted ...


这泡沫太大了。论刚需,比特币还不如房子呢。
房子早就没人敢买了,谁买谁接盘,如果不是限售限购,房子早跌回原价了,只有现在的1/4。
买比特币的人,没有一个是刚需,甚至根本没有需求,只有投机。
都是等推高价格后其他人接盘,然后他们就可以抛售,快速获利。

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