[已解决]请墙外反贼帮忙确定陆媒的 [Delta 变种流行美国三种主要疫苗有效率都大幅下降] 这条消息
Delta 变种流行美国三种主要疫苗有效率都大幅下降
随著新冠 Delta 变种成为美国主流的毒株，最新研究显示三种主要疫苗的有效率都出现了大幅下降。今年三月，Moderna 的两剂疫苗有效率为 89%，到 10 月份有效率降至了 58%；辉瑞和 BioNTech 的两剂疫苗有效率同期从 87% 降至 45%；而强生的单剂疫苗有效率在六个月内从 86% 跌至了 13%。研究报告发表在《科学》期刊上。Moderna 和辉瑞的疫苗都是 mRNA 疫苗，而强生则是以腺病毒为载体的疫苗。数据显示，接种疫苗有助于预防新冠病毒导致的死亡。美国疾控中心推荐强生疫苗的接种者打加强针。
墙内防误点请自行补链接首H ttps://www.solidot.org/story?sid=69528
如为真则可解释近来大陆防疫加强的现象, 毕竟大陆只有传统灭活苗, 而无普遍 mRNA、腺病毒等先进疫苗
且预示着未来新一波全球流行
随著新冠 Delta 变种成为美国主流的毒株，最新研究显示三种主要疫苗的有效率都出现了大幅下降。今年三月，Moderna 的两剂疫苗有效率为 89%，到 10 月份有效率降至了 58%；辉瑞和 BioNTech 的两剂疫苗有效率同期从 87% 降至 45%；而强生的单剂疫苗有效率在六个月内从 86% 跌至了 13%。研究报告发表在《科学》期刊上。Moderna 和辉瑞的疫苗都是 mRNA 疫苗，而强生则是以腺病毒为载体的疫苗。数据显示，接种疫苗有助于预防新冠病毒导致的死亡。美国疾控中心推荐强生疫苗的接种者打加强针。
墙内防误点请自行补链接首H ttps://www.solidot.org/story?sid=69528
如为真则可解释近来大陆防疫加强的现象, 毕竟大陆只有传统灭活苗, 而无普遍 mRNA、腺病毒等先进疫苗
且预示着未来新一波全球流行
29 个评论
>> 并没有感染率更低？没负效率？你这是洗地。我就明说你在洗地，因为白纸黑字在这里：随便找一期htt...
你说的数据没错
然而
后面也白纸黑字地写着
1Comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 infection. Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is summarised on pages 5 to 8 in this report.
The case rates in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are unadjusted crude rates that do not take into account underlying statistical biases in the data and there are likely to be systematic differences between these 2 population groups. For example:
• people who are fully vaccinated may be more health conscious and therefore more likely to get tested for COVID-19 and so more likely to be identified as a case (based on the data provided by the NHS Test and Trace)
• many of those who were at the head of the queue for vaccination are those at higher risk from COVID-19 due to their age, their occupation, their family circumstances or because of underlying health issues
• people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to social interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19
• people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus for a few months which may have contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks
后面这四个因素哪一个是不容忽略的？
尤其是第四点我前面没有提到的，在我国这个感染率这么高的地方（累计确诊案例已经达到9400万，是总人口的七分之一），很多没打过疫苗的人都已经得过covid，有了自然免疫能力。
固然把文中的一部分数据拿出来进行分析并且进行质疑和求证是完全可以接受的行为。但是如果说要从那几组数据得出”打疫苗之后长时间会出现负效率“这个结论确实非常牵强，因为存在以上干扰因素。
所以还是文中的那句话，会有更好researach instrument去专门测试Vaccine effectiveness
Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is summarised on pages 5 to 8 in this report.
比如文中reference的以下这些
Harris RJ, Hall JA, Zaidi A, Andrews NJ, Dunbar JK, Dabrera G. ‘Effect of
Vaccination on Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in England’ NEJM 2021
V Shah AS, Gribben C, Bishop J, Hanlon P, Caldwell D, Wood R and others.
‘Effect of vaccination on transmission of COVID-19: an observational study in
healthcare workers and their households.’ medRxiv 2021: 2021.03.11.21253275
Eyre DW, Taylor D, Purver M, Chapman D, Fowler T, Pouwels KB, Walker S, Peto
T. ‘The impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on Alpha & Delta variant transmission’
medRxiv 2021: 2021.09.28.21264260
