tony blair institute发文挺包子连任

https://institute.global/policy/all-eyes-chinese-communist-party-congress-guide-western-policymakers

All Eyes on the Chinese Communist Party Congress: A Guide for Western Policymakers

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原文太长了，但毕竟这篇文章说对了中共党内政治局的结构，比路透社那篇好太多了。
所以我截取一些关键的片段，tbi认为包子收到的挑战包括：
Zero-Covid policy，A beleaguered economy，Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

但是他们认为包子能连任的原因是：
But outside observers need to be careful not to see what they want to see. In reality, there’s little chance that Xi won’t secure his third term. The past months have made clear that he retains his ironclad influence over the Chinese propaganda machine, while also manoeuvring allies like Wang Xiaohong into key security positions – historically the area he’s struggled the most to control. A slew of new books on Xi’s philosophy, sweeping new internal party regulations and a recent trip to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan – his first time out of the country in two years – all point to a man who still feels very much in control.

然后提到了派系斗争。
However, now that he’s in the top job, the connections built up over a four-decade career have become far more prominent, allowing Xi to consolidate his authority. He has successfully (albeit not entirely) sidelined those traditional factions, instead installing close affiliates into key positions. At least 60 per cent of the current 25-member Politburo are known allies – and he will be hoping it’s even more post-congress.

最后总结是包子能连任。

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那么我的评价是：外媒的脑回路总是那么跳跃，
关于包子能连任的原因：
1、提到了8月包子依然延续了自己的影响力这点，没有任何证据能证明这点，tbi自己也没写原因反正就是稳了，实际上8.30-9.9是包子权力被打击最严重的时候。
2、把自己的人安排进关键位子，这点没啥问题。
3、去中亚他们认为显示包子稳了，这也是完全没有任何理由就认为是稳了。和实际上包子在普狗面前快哭的情况完全就两样。
4、提到派系斗争的时候无视了元老团的存在。
并且全文没有注意到党内对包子清零和经济的严重不满。

总之，这篇文章我认为是通过调研大量外媒和海外中文媒体的文章得出的结论，并不是基于大陆媒体的报道和观察。
如果中共的选举，外媒采访学习的对象是外媒，怎么可能得出正确的结论呢？