今日中国的崛起验证了当年麦克阿瑟对中共的论断

英文原文：
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/08/04/chinas_rise_is_macarthurs_vindication_115517.html

… With the benefit of hindsight, we can look back across the past 70 years and see Communist China develop into a first-rate power that threatens—with its increasingly powerful navy, its growing and more sophisticated army, and its global geopolitical vision known as the Belt and Road Initiative—hegemony on the Eurasian landmass. MacArthur, to his credit, sensed this 70 years ago. China, under Mao's regime, he wrote in a memorandum to George Marshall in November 1950, is manifesting "increasingly dominant aggressive tendencies,” leading to the creation “of a new and dominant power in Asia.” The Chinese Communist Party, he continued, is “aggressively imperialistic with a lust for expansion and increased power.” “When [the Chinese] reach fructification of their military potential,” MacArthur warned, “I dread to think what may happen.”

… 如今回望过去70多年共产党中国发展成威慑欧亚大陆的一流霸权—— 其日益增长的海军力量，其不断发展及日益复杂化的陆军，以及其具全球地缘政治目标的一带一路倡议 —— 麦克阿瑟70多年前便成功地预见了这些。中国的毛政权，他在1950年11月写给（美国国务卿）乔治·马歇尔的备忘录中写道，正展现出 “日益增长的侵略霸权倾向”，正走向 “一个新的称霸亚洲的强权”。中国共产党，麦克阿瑟继续写道，“具备侵略性质的帝国主义扩张与称霸野心”。“当中国人取得其军事潜能的功成圆满时日”，麦克阿瑟警告道， “我难以设想其可怕后果”。


2023年中期，半数美国人认为中国是美国最大的威胁：


该英文文章的其它段落：

In the midst of President Harry Truman’s controversial firing of General Douglas MacArthur during the Korean War, Air Force General George Kenny, who brilliantly led MacArthur’s air force in the Southwest Pacific in World War II, wrote that when the histories of the Korean War are written, they will "add still more to the luster of MacArthur's reputation as a military leader." General Kenny was wrong about historians, who have largely taken Truman’s side in the debate over how to deal with China’s entry into the war. But in a larger geopolitical sense, General Kenny was right. China’s rise in the 21st century and its challenge to America’s global preeminence have vindicated MacArthur.
关于韩战中杜鲁门总统解职麦克阿瑟将军的争议，二战时麦克阿瑟在西南太平洋属下的优秀空军司令乔治.肯尼将军写道，当韩战载入历史后，肯定将 “增补许多麦克阿瑟作为军事领袖名望的光芒”。肯尼将军对历史学家们的期望并未实现，后者大部分站到了杜鲁门一边争辩应如何应对中国的参战。但站在更广泛的地缘政治角度，肯尼将军说的对。中国在21世纪的崛起与对美国全球优势的挑战，证明了麦克阿瑟的判断。

Truman’s partisans have long portrayed MacArthur’s conduct during the Korean War as reckless, dangerous, and likely to lead to World War III. They have blamed MacArthur for attempting to liberate North Korea from communist rule, even though that was the initial policy of the Truman administration and the United Nations. They have blamed MacArthur for sending forces under his command to the Yalu River, even though MacArthur was told by General George Marshall to “feel unhampered strategically and tactically to proceed north of the 38th Parallel." They claimed that MacArthur's reckless advance into North Korea provoked China to enter the war in October-November 1950, even though China had decided to massively enter the war as early as July 1950, long before Inchon and long before MacArthur’s forces crossed into North Korea. They have blamed MacArthur for suggesting that Nationalist forces on Taiwan be used to help defeat the Communist Chinese army, even though Mao Zedong’s planned invasion of Taiwan was only forestalled by America’s entry into the war and dispatch of warships to the Taiwan Strait. They have blamed MacArthur for suggesting the use of nuclear weapons against China, even though both Presidents Truman and Eisenhower threatened their use, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff ordered unassembled atomic bombs to Guam in case their use was authorized. And they have blamed MacArthur for wanting to win the war instead of settling for stalemate, claiming, in the words of General Omar Bradley, that Korea was the wrong war, in the wrong place, at the wrong time, even though that stalemate has produced 70 years of misery and horrors for the North Korean and Chinese people, led to our disastrous defeat in Vietnam, and enabled China to consolidate its political hold on the mainland and develop into a most dangerous peer competitor of the United States.
杜鲁门的党友们长期以来一直把麦克阿瑟在韩战中的行为描绘成冒进，危险，易于引发三战。他们指责麦克阿瑟企图从共产党统治下解放北韩，其实这些本来便是杜鲁门行政当局与联合国的初始政策。他们指责麦克阿瑟将麾下军队送至鸭绿江畔，其实麦克阿瑟确实接到了乔治.马歇尔将军的命令，“可以在战略与战术上无所羁绊地向三八线以北挺进”。他们指责麦克阿瑟冒进北韩引发了中国在1950年10月至11月参战，其实中国早在1950年7月便已决定大规模进入战争，远早于仁川登陆以及麦克阿瑟的军队跨入北韩。他们指责麦克阿瑟建议使用台湾国民党军队以帮忙打败共产党中国军队，事实上毛泽东入侵台湾的计划仅仅是由于美国参战与派遣战舰进入台湾海峡，才被搁置。他们指责麦克阿瑟建议对中国使用原子弹，其实杜鲁门与艾森豪威尔总统都曾威胁过使用原子弹，而且参谋长联席会议已命令未装配的原子弹进入关岛以备得到授权时使用。最后，他们指责麦克阿瑟想赢得韩战胜利而不是接受停战，引用欧玛.布莱德雷将军的话说 “韩战是一场在错误时间错误地点打的错误战争”，完全不顾这种停战导致了北韩与中国人民70余年的凄惨与苦难，导致了我们在越战中的灾难性失败，导致了中国共产党在大陆站稳政治脚跟并发展成美国最危险的对等竞争者。

Truman and his top advisers were Eurocentric in their approach to international politics. They understandably and perhaps correctly perceived the principal immediate threat to U.S. security as emanating from Europe. This may explain, in part, Truman’s disastrous policies in Asia beginning with his abandonment of the Chinese Nationalists during China’s civil war and culminating in the Korean War stalemate. MacArthur’s geopolitical view was more comprehensive, more global. He sensed that the future pivot of world politics was in the Asia-Pacific, not Europe—and he was right.
在国际政治方法论上杜鲁门与其主要顾问们都是欧洲中心论者。他们从而可被理解地大概也正确地看到，对美国的立即及主要威胁来自欧洲。这部分地可用来解释杜鲁门亚洲政策的灾难性失败：这从其在中国内战中抛弃中国国民党开始，直至韩战的停战对峙。麦克阿瑟的地缘政治观点更为全面，更全球化。他观察到将来世界政治的重心将在亚太地区而非欧洲 —— 他是正确的。

In his famous address to Congress after his firing and return to America, MacArthur explained that America’s victory in the Pacific shifted our strategic frontier to embrace the entire Pacific Ocean. “We control it,” he said "… by a chain of islands extending in an arc from the Aleutians to the Marianas." From that island chain, he continued, “we can dominate with sea and air power every Asiatic port from Vladivostok to Singapore and prevent any hostile movement into the Pacific.” If the U.S. maintained “naval and air supremacy and modest ground elements to defend bases,” he further explained, “any major attack from continental Asia toward us or our friends of the Pacific would be doomed to failure.” To hold this “littoral defense line in the western Pacific,” MacArthur continued, we must hold “all segments thereof.” Any major breach of the island chain, such as the loss of Taiwan, he believed, would doom our position in the Pacific.
在他被解职后回到美国对国会的著名演讲中，麦克阿瑟解释了美国在太平洋地区的胜利将我们的战略前线扭转至拥抱整个太平洋。他说， “依靠从阿留申群岛到马里亚纳群岛的一个弧形岛链，我们控制太平洋”。 由此岛链，他继续道，“我们能够以海空力量控制从海参崴到新加坡的每一个亚洲港口并防止任何敌对行为进入太平洋”。如果美国维持海空优势及中等的地面力量以防守基地，他继续解释道，“任何源自亚洲大陆的对我们自己或我们太平洋盟友的重要攻击都注定会失败”。为守住这条 “西太平洋的海岸防卫线”，麦克阿瑟继续道，我们必须守住 那里的所有部位“。该岛链的任何重要断裂，比如丢失台湾，他认为都将终结我们在太平洋的地位。

In subsequent speeches, MacArthur emphasized that to effectively maintain the balance of power in Asia, the United States must “retain undisputed control of the seas [and] secure undisputed control of the air.”
在他接下来的后续演讲中麦克阿瑟强调指出，为有效地维持在亚洲的力量平衡，美国必须 “保持无可争议的对海洋与空中的控制”。

As if to emphasize his dispute with Truman and his Eurocentric advisers, MacArthur suggested that “[t]he first line of freedom’s defense is not the Elbe, not the Rhine, but it is in Korea on the Yalu.” This is why today, we continue to defend South Korea and resist China’s encroachments in the South China Sea. This is why, today, the United States has pivoted to the Asia-Pacific. This is why top Trump administration officials in a widely publicized series of speeches have recently signaled that China poses a potentially existential threat to the United States.

In the infamous letter to Rep. Joseph Martin that triggered his being relieved of command in Korea—the letter where he proclaimed, “There is no substitute for victory”—MacArthur wrote, “here in Asia is where the Communist conspirators have elected to make their play for global conquest.” America’s greatest general of the 20th century foresaw the 21st century world.

似乎是为强调他与杜鲁门及其欧洲中心论的顾问们的分歧，麦克阿瑟建议 “自由世界的第一道防线不在易北河，不在莱茵河，而是在鸭绿江上的朝鲜”。这就是为什么今天，我们继续保卫南朝鲜并抵抗中国在南中国海的侵略。这就是为什么今天，美国已转移重心至亚洲太平洋地区。这就是为什么川普政府的高级官员们在广为发布的一系列最新演说中，已经表明中国潜在地对美国的生存具备威胁。

在其那封声名狼藉的至众议员约瑟夫.马丁的导致其被解除朝鲜战场指挥权的信中 ——信中他声称 “胜利不可替代” —— 麦克阿瑟写道， “就是选择从亚洲这里开始，共产主义阴谋者们决定他们将动手征服全球”。美国20世纪最伟大的将军预见了21世纪的世界。

—— 本文发表于2020年8月4日，作者Francis P. Sempa为Wilkes大学政治科学副教授，检察官，及《美国外交》编辑撰稿人。