列列汇率与利率的数据
今天在两个关于汇率的帖子里，先是被@yogafire 兄引用了我的经典嘲讽；后是害@心情不好 在其他帖子里被认成我的马甲，看来我这个“人民币汇率吹”的帽子是摘不掉了哈
既然帽子摘不掉，索性破罐子破摔，贴一些现实的数据，和我的吹捧，再坐实一下。
让我们来对比一下本轮美元加息周期开始，世界前五大主流货币中除美元外的英镑、欧元、日元、人民币，在汇率和利率方面的表现。
美元本轮加息开始时间：2022年3月，以下汇率涨跌2022-3-1为基准，汇率信息来自https://xe.com
利率信息来自https://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/globalRate.html
美国：
当前联邦基金目标利率：5.25%
2022-3-1：0.5%
利率提高了4.75个百分点
英国：
当前央行利率决议：5.25%
2022-3-1：0.75%
利率提高了4.5个百分点
对美元汇率最高跌25.13%
当前跌10.53%
欧元区：
当前再融资利率：4.5%
2022-3-1：0
利率提高了4.5个百分点
对美元汇率最高跌16.87%
当前跌6.05%
日本：
当前央行利率决议：-0.1
2022-3-1：-0.1
利率未变
对美元汇率最高跌31.46%
当前跌31.46%
中国：
当前1年期存款利率：1.5
2022-3-1：1.5
利率未变
对美元汇率最高跌16.35%
当前跌15.61%
总结：根据蒙代尔不可能三角，稳定的汇率、货币自由流动、独立的货币政策，三者不可得兼。根据上述数据，我们可以得到这样一些结论
1，欧洲和英国在不可能三角中放弃“独立的货币政策”，追随美国加息，最后收获了将近20%的汇率波动和当前将近10%的货币贬值。
2，日本在不可能三角中放弃“稳定的汇率”，利率不变，汇率跌去30%以上
3，中国在不可能三角中放弃“货币自由流动”，利率不变，汇率下跌的最大值小于上述三个地区，当前下跌值小于日本。换言之，人民币相比同样采用独立货币政策的日本，汇率下跌更小；而相比同样下跌不多的欧洲和英国，汇率的波动更小，而且维持了更低的利率促进经济。
我的话讲完了，谁赞成，谁反对？
既然帽子摘不掉，索性破罐子破摔，贴一些现实的数据，和我的吹捧，再坐实一下。
让我们来对比一下本轮美元加息周期开始，世界前五大主流货币中除美元外的英镑、欧元、日元、人民币，在汇率和利率方面的表现。
美元本轮加息开始时间：2022年3月，以下汇率涨跌2022-3-1为基准，汇率信息来自https://xe.com
利率信息来自https://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/globalRate.html
美国：
当前联邦基金目标利率：5.25%
2022-3-1：0.5%
利率提高了4.75个百分点
英国：
当前央行利率决议：5.25%
2022-3-1：0.75%
利率提高了4.5个百分点
对美元汇率最高跌25.13%
当前跌10.53%
欧元区：
当前再融资利率：4.5%
2022-3-1：0
利率提高了4.5个百分点
对美元汇率最高跌16.87%
当前跌6.05%
日本：
当前央行利率决议：-0.1
2022-3-1：-0.1
利率未变
对美元汇率最高跌31.46%
当前跌31.46%
中国：
当前1年期存款利率：1.5
2022-3-1：1.5
利率未变
对美元汇率最高跌16.35%
当前跌15.61%
总结：根据蒙代尔不可能三角，稳定的汇率、货币自由流动、独立的货币政策，三者不可得兼。根据上述数据，我们可以得到这样一些结论
1，欧洲和英国在不可能三角中放弃“独立的货币政策”，追随美国加息，最后收获了将近20%的汇率波动和当前将近10%的货币贬值。
2，日本在不可能三角中放弃“稳定的汇率”，利率不变，汇率跌去30%以上
3，中国在不可能三角中放弃“货币自由流动”，利率不变，汇率下跌的最大值小于上述三个地区，当前下跌值小于日本。换言之，人民币相比同样采用独立货币政策的日本，汇率下跌更小；而相比同样下跌不多的欧洲和英国，汇率的波动更小，而且维持了更低的利率促进经济。
我的话讲完了，谁赞成，谁反对？
59 个评论
Some of the key timepoints when European or UK has made different interest rate decisions against US Fed are:
- **July 2022**: The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates for the first time in 11 years, ending an era of negative rates dating back to the Greek debt crisis of 2012³. The ECB raised its three key interest rates to **0.50%**, **0.75%** and **0%** respectively³. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), on the other hand, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at **0.25%** to **0.5%** in July 2022, citing the uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and its variants.
- **September 2022**: The ECB raised interest rates across the eurozone by a record margin of **0.75%** to combat soaring inflation that reached double figures in some of the currency bloc’s 19 member countries². The ECB set its benchmark interest rate for lending to banks at **1.25%**². The Fed also raised its interest rate by **0.75%** in September 2022, but to a higher level of **1%** to **1.25%**, as it sought to balance the risks of inflation and economic growth.
- **December 2022**: The ECB raised interest rates across the eurozone by another **0.5%** to **1.75%**, as it tried to control rising inflation in the eurozone that reached a record rate of **9.1%** in November¹. The Bank of England (BoE) also hiked its key interest rate by a **0.5%** point to **3.5%**, which was the highest level in 14 years². The BoE had been more aggressive than the ECB and the Fed in raising interest rates throughout 2022, as it battled the country's unusually high inflation that peaked at **10.4%** in October. The Fed, meanwhile, raised its interest rate by only **0.25%** to **1.25%** to **1.5%** in December 2022, as it adopted a more cautious approach amid signs of slowing economic growth and labor market recovery in the US.
I hope this information is helpful to you. If you have any other questions, feel free to chat with me more. 😊
Source: Conversation with Bing, 2023/11/1
(1) European Central Bank raises interest rates for first time in 11 years. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/21/european-central-bank-raises-interest-rates-for-first-time-in-11-years.
(2) ECB raises interest rates across eurozone by record margin | European .... https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/08/ecb-european-central-bank-interest-rates-eurozone.
(3) ECB raises eurozone interest rate by 0.5% – DW – 12/15/2022. https://www.dw.com/en/ecb-raises-eurozone-interest-rate-by-05/a-64107186.
- **July 2022**: The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates for the first time in 11 years, ending an era of negative rates dating back to the Greek debt crisis of 2012³. The ECB raised its three key interest rates to **0.50%**, **0.75%** and **0%** respectively³. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), on the other hand, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at **0.25%** to **0.5%** in July 2022, citing the uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and its variants.
- **September 2022**: The ECB raised interest rates across the eurozone by a record margin of **0.75%** to combat soaring inflation that reached double figures in some of the currency bloc’s 19 member countries². The ECB set its benchmark interest rate for lending to banks at **1.25%**². The Fed also raised its interest rate by **0.75%** in September 2022, but to a higher level of **1%** to **1.25%**, as it sought to balance the risks of inflation and economic growth.
- **December 2022**: The ECB raised interest rates across the eurozone by another **0.5%** to **1.75%**, as it tried to control rising inflation in the eurozone that reached a record rate of **9.1%** in November¹. The Bank of England (BoE) also hiked its key interest rate by a **0.5%** point to **3.5%**, which was the highest level in 14 years². The BoE had been more aggressive than the ECB and the Fed in raising interest rates throughout 2022, as it battled the country's unusually high inflation that peaked at **10.4%** in October. The Fed, meanwhile, raised its interest rate by only **0.25%** to **1.25%** to **1.5%** in December 2022, as it adopted a more cautious approach amid signs of slowing economic growth and labor market recovery in the US.
I hope this information is helpful to you. If you have any other questions, feel free to chat with me more. 😊
Source: Conversation with Bing, 2023/11/1
(1) European Central Bank raises interest rates for first time in 11 years. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/21/european-central-bank-raises-interest-rates-for-first-time-in-11-years.
(2) ECB raises interest rates across eurozone by record margin | European .... https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/08/ecb-european-central-bank-interest-rates-eurozone.
(3) ECB raises eurozone interest rate by 0.5% – DW – 12/15/2022. https://www.dw.com/en/ecb-raises-eurozone-interest-rate-by-05/a-64107186.
