结合阿姨的观点，谈谈我对拜登当选后远东和世界局势发展的看法
首先，请管理员不要把我这篇文章弄到大选的集中讨论区去，这篇文章的主旨无关大选，只是观点假设。
下面来说说我的看法
1、关于中美经贸脱钩
远东局势中最重要的关系莫过于中美关系。而拜登当选，将会使中美脱钩进程放缓，而脱钩不可逆。
为什么如此？我们要看清楚一点，目前远东局势如此，主动挑起争端的是中国，无论是南海军事化，还是一带一路，都是如此。美国只是被动应对罢了。
脱钩也是如此。正因为中国主动出击，使得地区安全问题凸显，川普敏锐地觉察到了这一点，或许还有其他因素如恶性竞争之类的，综合起来，他开始推动中美经贸脱钩。
在这里，川普只是顺应了趋势罢了，经贸活动中最重要的客观因素是安全，只有安全才能让绝大多数人赚钱，而争端频发的地区，则仅仅是少数冒险家的乐土罢了。
所以说，韩国，日本，美国的脱钩举动，很大程度上是基于战略判断，而深陷中国市场的欧盟，将来不可避免地会在即将到来的冲突中受到重大损失。
所以说，无论拜登当选后是采取接触政策还是继续脱钩，脱钩进程都将不可逆，这是因为中国的战略主动所导致的后果。
关于脱钩放缓的原因我补充一点。拜登之前毫无意义是拥抱熊猫派。就算目前美国社会两党在遏制中国问题上达成了所谓共识，但是这个共识只是口头共识而不是行动共识。
拜登等政客，尤其在外交领域，行动力堪忧。就如同今年，整个九月份，美国的军机除了台风天，天天都在南海上空转悠，换了拜登，我不相信他敢这么做。他要等盟友一起行动，而盟友是看你行动了才会去动的，毕竟当前中国纸面上的力量想当可观。
2、关于台海和南海平衡问题
拜登当选后，外交将采取多边主义，而历史已经无数次证明，对于足够强大的政权来说，通过多边主义的外交政策对其限制是无效的，如果需要盟友达成共识才能采取行动，那么这个共识将永远无法达成，各个盟友将会被这个强权威逼利诱逐个击破，从而强权实现其战略意图。
川普的单边政策，使得习近平投鼠忌器，南海岛礁的建设工作停滞不前，一带一路也销声匿迹，潜入地下。
而一旦拜登上台，外交上采取多边主义，也就是要整合盟国的利益后才采取行动，那么就有很大可能被中共逐个击破，最终实现中共野心。也就是，南海完全军事化，台海平衡被彻底打破，突破第一岛链，一带一路继续高歌猛进。
而此时的拜登，或许还在为国内的危机和被渗透的盟友搞得焦头烂额，根本无法做出有效行动，只能口头上谴责再谴责，然后会见达赖喇嘛，搞一些恶心中共但根本毫无作用的行为艺术。
3、关于美国国内以及国际局势的变化影响
美国在奥巴马时期出现的经济危机，本质上是产业空心化，而福利国家尚未建立的结果。
川普上台后，这个趋势得以扭转。而拜登则会遵循奥巴马的路线，继续建立福利国家。所以，美国经济将会经历相当长一段时间的阵痛期。
福利国家并非不好，但需要社会共识。也就是说，有足够多的富人愿意供养穷人，实现社会平衡。而这个共识，在美国这种移民社会当中，非常难以建立，原因也是因为移民，利益的压力将会击垮富裕人群的可怜的良知，从而使得福利国家在建立的过程中严重伤害中产阶级，最终使整个社会变成中国那样的金字塔结构，美国引以为傲的两亿中产将不复存在。
法国在被移民大量冲击后，近几年已经削减了税率，降低了福利，就是这个原因。而美国作为传统的移民国家，根本不具备建立福利社会的现实条件，这一点上川普歪打正着，而拜登，虽然口号喊得响亮，说要团结美国，但是他的经济政策只会导致美国持续衰弱。
而由此，世界局势将会经历至少四年甚至更长时间的动荡。美国衰弱，多边崩溃，战争的阴云将笼罩在中东、高加索、中印、远东、南美等各个地区，而此时的美国和所谓的各种国际机构，将一次次发表谴责而因为实力原因无所作为。
未来已来，让我们真正见证历史。再次要求本帖不要转到集中讨论区，管理员谢谢了！！！
下面来说说我的看法
1、关于中美经贸脱钩
远东局势中最重要的关系莫过于中美关系。而拜登当选，将会使中美脱钩进程放缓，而脱钩不可逆。
为什么如此？我们要看清楚一点，目前远东局势如此，主动挑起争端的是中国，无论是南海军事化，还是一带一路，都是如此。美国只是被动应对罢了。
脱钩也是如此。正因为中国主动出击，使得地区安全问题凸显，川普敏锐地觉察到了这一点，或许还有其他因素如恶性竞争之类的，综合起来，他开始推动中美经贸脱钩。
在这里，川普只是顺应了趋势罢了，经贸活动中最重要的客观因素是安全，只有安全才能让绝大多数人赚钱，而争端频发的地区，则仅仅是少数冒险家的乐土罢了。
所以说，韩国，日本，美国的脱钩举动，很大程度上是基于战略判断，而深陷中国市场的欧盟，将来不可避免地会在即将到来的冲突中受到重大损失。
所以说，无论拜登当选后是采取接触政策还是继续脱钩，脱钩进程都将不可逆，这是因为中国的战略主动所导致的后果。
关于脱钩放缓的原因我补充一点。拜登之前毫无意义是拥抱熊猫派。就算目前美国社会两党在遏制中国问题上达成了所谓共识，但是这个共识只是口头共识而不是行动共识。
拜登等政客，尤其在外交领域，行动力堪忧。就如同今年，整个九月份，美国的军机除了台风天，天天都在南海上空转悠，换了拜登，我不相信他敢这么做。他要等盟友一起行动，而盟友是看你行动了才会去动的，毕竟当前中国纸面上的力量想当可观。
2、关于台海和南海平衡问题
拜登当选后，外交将采取多边主义，而历史已经无数次证明，对于足够强大的政权来说，通过多边主义的外交政策对其限制是无效的，如果需要盟友达成共识才能采取行动，那么这个共识将永远无法达成，各个盟友将会被这个强权威逼利诱逐个击破，从而强权实现其战略意图。
川普的单边政策，使得习近平投鼠忌器，南海岛礁的建设工作停滞不前，一带一路也销声匿迹，潜入地下。
而一旦拜登上台，外交上采取多边主义，也就是要整合盟国的利益后才采取行动，那么就有很大可能被中共逐个击破，最终实现中共野心。也就是，南海完全军事化，台海平衡被彻底打破，突破第一岛链，一带一路继续高歌猛进。
而此时的拜登，或许还在为国内的危机和被渗透的盟友搞得焦头烂额，根本无法做出有效行动，只能口头上谴责再谴责，然后会见达赖喇嘛，搞一些恶心中共但根本毫无作用的行为艺术。
3、关于美国国内以及国际局势的变化影响
美国在奥巴马时期出现的经济危机，本质上是产业空心化，而福利国家尚未建立的结果。
川普上台后，这个趋势得以扭转。而拜登则会遵循奥巴马的路线，继续建立福利国家。所以，美国经济将会经历相当长一段时间的阵痛期。
福利国家并非不好，但需要社会共识。也就是说，有足够多的富人愿意供养穷人，实现社会平衡。而这个共识，在美国这种移民社会当中，非常难以建立，原因也是因为移民，利益的压力将会击垮富裕人群的可怜的良知，从而使得福利国家在建立的过程中严重伤害中产阶级，最终使整个社会变成中国那样的金字塔结构，美国引以为傲的两亿中产将不复存在。
法国在被移民大量冲击后，近几年已经削减了税率，降低了福利，就是这个原因。而美国作为传统的移民国家，根本不具备建立福利社会的现实条件，这一点上川普歪打正着，而拜登，虽然口号喊得响亮，说要团结美国，但是他的经济政策只会导致美国持续衰弱。
而由此，世界局势将会经历至少四年甚至更长时间的动荡。美国衰弱，多边崩溃，战争的阴云将笼罩在中东、高加索、中印、远东、南美等各个地区，而此时的美国和所谓的各种国际机构，将一次次发表谴责而因为实力原因无所作为。
未来已来，让我们真正见证历史。再次要求本帖不要转到集中讨论区，管理员谢谢了！！！
30 个评论
>>那我确实该去试一下了
贴一下我翻译的全文吧
Talking about my views on the development of the situation in the Far East and the world after Biden was elected
1. Regarding the decoupling of CN-US economic and trade
The most important relationship in the Far East situation is the CN-US relationship. The election of Biden will slow the decoupling process between China and the United States, and the decoupling will be irreversible.
Why is it so? We need to see clearly that the situation in the Far East is currently the case. It is China that provoked the dispute, whether it is the militarization of the South China Sea or the Belt and Road Initiative. The United States just responded passively.
The same goes for decoupling. It is precisely because of China's proactive attack that regional security issues have become prominent. Trump is keenly aware of this. Perhaps there are other factors such as vicious competition. Together, he has begun to promote the decoupling of CN-US economic and trade relations.
Here, Trump just conforms to the trend. The most important objective factor in economic and trade activities is security. Only security can make most people make money, and areas with frequent disputes are just a paradise for a few adventurers.
Therefore, the decoupling of South Korea,Japan, and the United States is largely based on strategic judgments, and the European Union, which is deeply trapped in the Chinese market, will inevitably suffer heavy losses in the coming conflict in the future.
Therefore, regardless of whether Biden adopts an engagement policy or continues to decouple after his election, the decoupling process will be irreversible. This is because of the consequences of China's strategic initiative.
Let me add one point to the reason for the slowing down of decoupling. Biden has undoubtedly ’embraced the panda’ before. Even if the two parties of the American Socialist Party have reached a so-called consensus on the issue of containing China, this consensus is only an oral consensus rather than an action consensus.
Politicians such as Biden, especially in the diplomatic field, have worrisome actions. Just like this year, throughout September, except for typhoons, American military planes were idling in the South China Sea every day. If Biden?. I don’t believe he dared to do so. He has to wait for his allies to act together, and allies will act only when you act. After all, China's current strength on paper wants to be considerable.
2. Regarding the balance between the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea
After Biden is elected, diplomacy will adopt multilateralism, and history has proven countless times that for a sufficiently powerful regime, the restriction of its foreign policy through multilateralism is ineffective. If allies reach a consensus to take action, then this Consensus will never be reached, and all allies will be smashed one by one by this strong authority, so that the power will realize its strategic intentions.
Trump's unilateral policy has made Xi Jinping dare not make trouble, the construction of South China Sea islands and reefs has stagnated, and the Belt and Road Initiative has also disappeared and dived underground.
Once Biden came to power and adopts multilateralism in diplomacy, which means that he must integrate the interests of allies before he takes action, he is likely to be defeated by the CCP one by one and finally realize the CCP's ambitions. That is, the South China Sea is completely militarized, the balance of the Taiwan Strait has been completely broken, the First Island Chain has been broken, and the Belt and Road Initiative has continued to advance.
At this time, Biden may still be overwhelmed by the domestic crisis and the infiltrated allies. He is unable to take effective actions. He can only verbally condemn and then condemn, then meet with the Dalai Lama and engage in some disgusting CCP. Useless performance art.
3. Regarding the impact of changes in the domestic and international situation in the
United States, the economic crisis that occurred during the Obama era is essentially the result of hollowing out the industry and the unestablished welfare state.
After Trump came to power, this trend was reversed. Biden will follow Obama's line and continue to build a welfare state. Therefore, the US economy will experience a period of pain for a long time.
The welfare state is not bad, but it requires social consensus. In other words, there are enough rich people willing to support the poor and achieve social balance. And this consensus is very difficult to establish in an immigrant society like the United States. The reason is also because of immigrants. The pressure of interest will destroy the poor conscience of the wealthy people, so that the welfare state will seriously hurt the middle class in the process of establishing, and ultimately If the entire society becomes a pyramid structure like China, the 200 million middle class that the United States is proud of will no longer exist.
France has cut its tax rate and welfare in recent years after being hit by a large number of immigrants. That's why. The United States, as a traditional country of immigrants, does not have the realistic conditions to establish a welfare society. Trump is right on this point, and Biden, although his slogans are loud, saying that he wants to unite with the United States, his economic policies will only cause the United States to continue to weaken. .
As a result, the world situation will experience turbulence for at least four years or even longer. The United States is weak and the multilateral collapses. The cloud of war will loom over the Middle East, the Caucasus, China, India, the Far East, South America and other regions. At this time, the United States and so-called various international institutions will issue condemnations and do nothing because of their strength.
The future has come, let us truly witness history.