魏京生五年前的受奖感言,今天看来依然非常深刻,切中要害

感谢美国工商业委员会今天颁发我"2015年经济自由奖"。谢谢大家来参加这次会议。


我讲的主题,仍然是贸易和人权。有人会笑起来了:你讲这两个话题都讲十几年了,我们早就知道了。但是,我讲错了吗?十几年前,他们说我错了。中国共产党说我错了;美国的大企业们说我错了;所以克林顿总统和国会里的多数议员们也说我错了。他们给了中国永久最惠国待遇,也就是后来叫做PNTR的东西;并进入了世界贸易组织,即WTO。


我来简单回顾一下,看看到底是谁错了。

https://i.imgur.com/cS2PdPv.jpg



我说中国共产党不会为此而改善人权状况。十五年过去了,现在全世界都看到了,中国的人权状况不但没有改进,反而向着更加集权的方向倒退。中国人都认为是小毛泽东或者叫做习泽东在复辟毛泽东的时代。习泽东是中国网民给习近平起的绰号,并被大家所接受。



我说共产党不会随着经济的进步,而自动渐进到民主制度。十五年过去了,现在仍然是共产党的一党专政,他们管那叫做世界上最民主的;或者叫做真正民主的制度。 习近平正在发起一个由官方强制推动的运动,叫做禁止宣传西方腐朽的价值观。很多告密者因此获得了奖赏。甚至因编造谎言而闹了笑话的,也可以升官发财。


我说中国政府不会遵守贸易规则,而会破坏贸易规则以求对他们单方面有利。因为中国是一个没有正常法制的社会。十五年过去了,中国政府没有改变它不讲理的性格。不但在国际贸易中不守规矩;在国内也一样不守规矩。最近一些年来,很多外国企业吃尽了苦头后不得不退出中国,就是最好的证明。


现在它不但不遵守国际贸易的规则,而且还要按照中国的方式制定国际贸易的规则,这是我当时就已经说到的。如果中国共产党成功了,第二次世界大战后赖以维护世界和平的基础之一,国际贸易规则将不复存在。半个多世纪的相对和平的局面,将很难维持下去。


我说当年几十亿美元的贸易逆差,将会迅速扩大。短短的十年,就已经扩大到了三千亿美元。美国的经济因此而不断衰退;中国的经济因此而快速增长。等于美国在向中国共产党输血。美国的很多工人因此而失业,中国的工人也并没有增加多少收入。中国的亿万富翁迅速增加,美国的亿万富翁也在迅速增加。中美两国的贫富差距在同步扩大。


我说中国经济增长之后,不会用来大幅度改善国民的福利;而会大幅度增加军用经费,对周边国家以至于美国本身构成威胁。十五年后的现在,美国的学者和政治家们已经清楚地认识到了这一点。中国军力的超常速度增长,已经引起了美国和它的盟国的极大不安。连这样明显的事实都看不见的学者,很可能是脑子进水了,或者是有其它的目的。


我说中国人民也不会从PNTR和WTO中得到多少好处,当时遭到了几乎一致的反对,其中包括一些在海外的中国反对派人士。我甚至怀疑,在这一点上我不一定是对的,至少不完全对。看来确实不完全对。除了仅仅比美国少一些的亿万富翁以外,至少有几百万人生活得像发达国家一样富裕;几千万人生活水平达到了中等发达国家的水平。这个数字差不多等于法国或者德国的总人口,所以给外国旅行者留下了错觉。


https://i.imgur.com/jqe5LOP.jpg


但是,占人口百分之九十五的人民是怎样生活的呢?其中一部分人的账面收入比过去增加了一些,住房和医疗、教育等等福利却没有了。他们的实际生活状况反而下降了。大多数家庭没钱供孩子上大学,如果遇到大病就只能等死。房价被有官方背景的亿万富翁们炒作到东京、纽约的水平,大多数穷人却只能拥挤在狭小的公寓中。 另一些人甚至账面收入都少于过去,他们甚至全年都吃不到肉食。这就是美国输血而又避谈人权,给中国人民带来的好处。


这种状况如果可能继续下去,能让美国的大企业继续赚钱,也许美国的大企业和它们支持的政治家和学者们无所谓,只有美国的中产阶级比较倒霉。遗憾的是,习近平和他的同党们不这么认为;中美两国清醒的学者们不这么认为;中国人民不这么认为。开始是一些穷人不愿意再这样继续下去了;之后是富人们也知道不能够继续下去了;现在连清醒的共产党人也不得不承认,继续下去就是灾难,就是亡党亡国。


众所周知,中国的经济正在快速的下滑,各项指标说明已经进入了经济危机,和美国上个世纪三十代的大危机相似。和美国一样,中国也是一个大国,经济危机不可能不向全球扩散。实际上现在已经在向全球扩散。美国的增长速度停止;欧洲的经济明显陷入困境。这都和中国的严重经济衰退,或者说经济危机有关。这种趋势如果继续下去,全球经济都可能会进入严重的衰退,甚至经济危机。


如何挽救中国的经济呢?第一是开放中国市场,实行真正公平的自由贸易,而不是单方面的自由贸易。第二是尊重人权,大规模增加中国国内消费市场。只有这两项政策同时进行,才可能挽救中国的经济,并且使中美两国人民同时得到好处,使全球经济同时得到好处。


开放中国的市场,达到实际上的公平自由贸易。这不仅仅对美国的出口有利,也对恢复已经被破坏的国际贸易规则有利。现在的国际贸易中,越来越盛行各种非关税壁垒;越来越倾向于以国内法规代替公平的国际贸易规则。单向的自由贸易和单向的不公平贸易,是阻碍世界经济发展的最大障碍,也是引起近年来经济衰退的主要原因。而中国已经且正在其中扮演着最大的和主要的角色,起着榜样的作用。


开放中国的市场,不仅是世界贸易的需要,也是中国经济恢复发展的需要。经过十五年高速的和畸形的发展,中国经济已经进入到所谓的中等收入陷阱。过分依赖廉价劳动力的惯性,使得中国经济的总体技术和经营管理水平低下。产品、技术以至于企业本身需要更新换代,否则很快就会陷入崩溃的地步。从美国大量进口这些服务,是解决这些问题的唯一出路。

https://i.imgur.com/e9pXJ6I.jpg
为了避免中国的地方垄断和行业垄断,必须在国内法上遵循公平贸易的规则,而不能继续过去的那种不公平的规则,否则不可能解决走出中等收入陷阱的难题。在中国内部利益集团极其强大的前提下,没有美国的强大压力,任何人也不可能主动走出开放市场的关键一步。假设习近平有这个动机,也必须借助于美国的强大压力,才能够提出开放市场的问题。何况很多中国人还有思维方式上的问题。


他们像某些乡下人一样,认为给了别人便宜,就是自己吃了亏。对于还有给了别人便宜且自己也占便宜的好事,他们会很惊奇地笑一笑然后不相信,认为那是好莱坞的故事。只有当别人强迫他吃亏的时候,事后他们才会发现自己也占了便宜。中国共产党的大部分人是这种心理状态。所以美国只能设法强迫中国接受公平的自由贸易原则;否则就只能给它公平的不自由贸易,双方都不开放市场。


开放中国的市场,就必须保障基本的人权。不保障人权,没有言论和结社的自由,占中国劳动人口大多数的工人就没有集体谈判的权利。没有集体谈判的权利,就不可能大规模、大幅度地提高工人的收入。也就不可能明显扩大中国国内的市场,不可能为美国企业提供更多的出口市场。同时也就不可能解决中国经济的困境。


有人以为可以开放中国的市场,而又不保障人权,其中当然也包括美国商人们的人权。但在人权没有保障的前提下,美国的商品、技术、经营和管理能够顺利地在中国落户吗?看看那些像退潮的潮水一样离开中国的企业和商人,就已经可以得出结论了。这对美国的企业和商人不利;对中国的经济不利;只对中国的垄断企业和官僚资产阶级有利。不保障人权的结果,就是中国经济失去最后挽救自己的机会。中国的经济崩溃了,世界的经济也会进入程度不等的衰退。这对所有人都不利。


所以自由贸易必须是多边的公平贸易,否则会给大家都带来不好的结果。推动人权的保障,是自由贸易的基本条件之一。它关系到我们每一个人的权利和利益。是中国人,美国人和所有人都必须关注和为之努力的目标。
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分享 2019-12-21

20 个评论

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我觉得他和美国人还是很天真,我真的认为要实现真正的自由平等的贸易只有推翻共产党一条路。
我觉得他和美国人还是很天真,我真的认为要实现真正的自由平等的贸易只有推翻共产党一条路。

被输血的中共是倒不了的,要让它完蛋先把管子撤了,其他等气球把气放完了再看
我也觉得上面的评论是对的。美国人和他还是天真了,开放市场和经济自由再加上言论自由这些,最直接的导致的是什么?是中共丧失当前对中国的管制力,这变相的等于颜色革命了。

这在中共眼里是绝对不允许出现的。
魏京生在美国之音的这个专访里面,讲的也是这个意思。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qd0lkDoJaJk
英文原版的讲话稿:

Speech When Honored with the "2015 Economic Freedom Award" by the United States Business and Industry Council in the US Congress

-- Wei Jingsheng

                                                        September 24, 2015




Thanks to the United States Business and Industry Council for honoring me this "2015 Economic Freedom Award" here.  Thank you all for attending this conference.


The topic I want to talk about today is still about trade and human rights.  Some people may start to laugh: you have been talking about these two topics for more than ten years, we already know.  But was what I said wrong?  More than ten years ago, they said that I was wrong.  The Communist Party of China said that I was wrong; the big US companies said that I was wrong; so President Clinton and the majority of the US lawmakers also said that I was wrong.  They gave China the permanent MFN status (later as PNTR -- Permanent Normal Trade Relationship); and let China enter the WTO (World Trade Organization).


Let me briefly recall the past to see in the end who was wrong.


I said that the Chinese Communist Party would not improve human rights in China just because it got PNTR and entered the WTO.  Fifteen years have passed, now the whole world has seen that human rights in China have not only not improved, but are moving backwards towards a more authoritarian direction.  The Chinese people think a younger Mao Zedong called Xi Zedong is restoring Mao's era.  Xi Zedong is Xi Jinping's nickname by the Chinese netizens, and is accepted by all.


I said that the Communist Party would not automatically enter a democratic system due to the economic progress, as some proclaimed.  Fifteen years have passed, and we still see the one-party dictatorship of the Communist Party.  The Communist regime in China claims it is the most democratic system in the world, a true democracy.  Xi Jinping is launching a mandatory campaign called "prohibiting the promotion of the decadent values of the Westerns".  Many informants have received rewards for that.  Even those who teased themselves by fabricating lies got promoted and rich.


I said that the Chinese government would not abide by trade rules; instead it will destroy these rules in order to make trade unilaterally favorable.  That is because China is not a normal society by rule of law.  Fifteen years have passed and China has not changed its character of being unreasonable.  Not only does the Chinese government not abide by the rules in international trade, it does not abide by the rules within China either.  In recent years, we see the best proof as many foreign companies had to exit China after suffering terribly.


Now the Chinese government not only does not comply with the rules of international trade, but is also trying to develop the rules of international trade in accordance with China's approach, just as what I said back then.  If the Chinese Communist Party is successful, then the international trade rules, one of the foundations that have been maintaining world peace after World War II, will cease to exist.  The relatively peaceful situation of the past more than half a century will be difficult to sustain.


Back then, I said that those billions of dollars of US trade deficit with China will rapidly expand.  It took only ten years for the trade deficit to reach three hundred billion US dollars (in 2011).  So the US economy continues to decline because of this deficit; while China's economy rapidly grew due to it.  This is equal to the United States giving a blood transfusion to the Communist Party of China.  Many American workers lost their jobs, yet the Chinese workers did not gain too much real income.  Chinese and American billionaires have rapidly increased.  The gaps between the rich and poor of both two countries have expanded simultaneously.


I said that after China's economic growth, that growth will not be used to significantly improve the welfare of citizens; instead it will be used significantly to increase the military expense, and pose a threat to neighboring countries and even to the United States itself.  Now after fifteen years, American scholars and politicians have clearly recognized this.  The extraordinary growth rate of China's military power has caused great uneasiness in the United States and its allies.  The scholars who do not even see such obvious facts are likely to be on glue, or due to other purposes.


I said that the Chinese people would not get much benefit from PNTR and WTO.  At that time, I was met with almost unanimous opposition, including from some Chinese opposition figures abroad.  I even had to suspect that I might not be right on this, or at least not completely right.  It looks like indeed I was not completely right.  Besides that the number of billionaires in China is only second after the USA, there are now at least several millions of Chinese who are living as rich as people in developed countries, and tens of millions of Chinese who have reached the level of moderately developed countries.  This figure is almost equal to the total population of France or Germany, so they do give foreign travelers an illusion.


However, what about the lives of the other 95% of the Chinese 1.3 plus billion population?  On the surface, some of them show some revenue increases from in the past, but they have lost the welfare which included housing, medical care, education and so on.  Their real-life situation has effectively declined instead.  Most families have no money to send their children to college.  Many people can only wait for death when they encounter serious illness.  The housing prices in China have been pushed up to the level of Tokyo and New York by the billionaire speculators, while most of the poor can only crowd into small apartments.  There are other people who have revenue even less that the past, and cannot even eat meat throughout the whole year.  This is the so-called benefit to the Chinese people, when America gave transfusion blood to China yet avoided talking about human rights.


If this situation could continue, and thus allow the big American companies to continue to make money, perhaps America's big business, along with the politicians and scholars they support, would not care.  Then America's middle class would be the only unlucky ones.  Unfortunately, Xi Jinping and his accomplices do not think it can continue; sober Sino-US scholars do not think so; and the Chinese people do not think so.  At the beginning, it was some poor Chinese who were not willing to continue this way, then the rich Chinese also know it cannot continue so; now ever the sober minded Communists have to admit that it would be a disaster if it continues so, until the collapse of the country and collapse of the Communist Party.


As we all know, China's economy is rapidly declining, with all the indicators illustrating that it had entered an economic crisis, similar to the Great Depression of the USA in the 1930's.  Just like the United States, China is also a big country, so the economic crisis could not have not spread to the globe.  In fact now it is already spreading to the world.  US growth is stopped.  The economy in Europe is clearly in trouble.  All these troubles are associated with the severe economic downturn in China, or its economic crisis.  If this trend continues, the global economy may be entering a serious recession, and even economic crisis.


How to save the Chinese economy?  The first is to open the Chinese market, and to implement truly fair free trade, instead of a free trade that is only unilateral.  The second is to respect human rights, a massive increase of Chinese domestic consumer market.  Only when these two policies are conducted at the same time, it may save the Chinese economy, and benefit the people of both China and the USA at the same time,  and benefit the global economy at the same time.


Let us open China's market, to reach a fair free trade in reality.  This would not only be beneficial to exports of the United States, but also be beneficial to recover the already nearly destroyed international trade rules.  During the current international trade, non-tariff barriers have been increasingly prevalent; states are more inclined to use domestic legislation to replace fair international trade rules.  One-way free trade and one way unfair trade is the biggest obstacle to world economic development, and also the main cause of the recent economic recession.  Yet China has been and is playing the largest and a major role, like being a role model of this one-way traffic.


Opening the Chinese market would not only meet the needs of world trade, but also the need for the Chinese economy to recover its development.  After fifteen years development of China's economy at a high yet abnormal speed, it has entered the so-called middle-income trap.  The inertia of over-reliance on cheap labor has resulted in the overall technical and management level of China's economy to be low.  Products and technology, and even the enterprise itself need replacement, to avoid the point of collapse soon.  To import these services from the United States in large quantity is the only way to solve these problems.


In order to avoid China's local monopolies and industrial monopolies, China must follow the rules of fair trade on its own domestic law, instead of continuing unfair rules of the past.  Otherwise, it is impossible to solve its problem to get out of the middle-income trap.  Under the extreme pressure from China's internal interest groups, without the extreme pressure from the USA, no one can take the initiative to open China's market.  Suppose Xi Jinping had this motivation, he must resort to strong pressure from the United States to be able to raise the issue of open markets in China.  Moreover, many Chinese people have a problem in the way of their thinking.


They are like some sort of rednecks who would think that they must have gotten taken disadvantage of when the others are benefited.  Regarding the likelihood of good thing that they are benefited by while others have also benefited, they would give a surprise laugh followed by disbelief, to treat it as a story told by Hollywood.  Only when the others forced them to lose, they may realize later that they were benefited.  Most of the Communists in China are in such a mental state.  So the United States can only try to force China to accept the principles of free trade that are fair; otherwise the USA cannot give back to China a non-free trade to be fair.  An unfair non-free trade would only result neither market of both countries be open.


To open China's market means it is necessary to protect the basic human rights.  Without the protection of human rights, without freedom of expression and association, workers, the majority of the Chinese labor force, would have no collective bargaining rights.  Without collective bargaining rights, it is impossible to raise workers' income greatly on a large-scale.  Thus it is impossible to significantly expand the domestic market inside China, and is impossible to provide more export markets for US companies.  At the same time it is impossible to solve the plight of China's economy.


Some people thought that they could open China's market without protecting human rights, including the human rights of the US business people.  However, when there is the premise of no guarantee of human rights, will the goods, the technology, the business and the management of the USA to be successfully settled in China?  Looking at these enterprises and businessmen who leave China like an ebb tide, one would be able to draw conclusions.  This will not be good to either American businesses or their businessmen.  This would not be good to China's economy.  This would only be good to the bureaucratic monopoly and bureaucratic capitalists in China.  The result of not guaranteeing human rights in China is that the Chinese economy loses its last chance to save itself.  When China's economy collapsed, the world economy will enter a recession in varying degrees.  This would not be good to all the people.


So free trade must be multilateral fair trade.  Otherwise it would bring bad fruits for everyone.  Promoting the protection of human rights is one of the basic conditions for free trade.  It relates to the rights and interests of everyone.  It should be the goal that the Chinese, the Americans, and everyone must be concerned about and working hard at.
我也觉得上面的评论是对的。美国人和他还是天真了,开放市场和经济自由再加上言论自由这些,最直接的导致的...

魏京生就是想借用开放市场为条件,逼着中国出现颜色革命。
抛弃幻想,直接按对待朝鲜的方式来对付中国就好,我是土生土长的大陆穷二代,我赞成最极端的封锁策略,把屎坑先生当成道光帝一样,隔三差五过来维稳是拯救中国和中国人的唯一办法。
抛弃幻想,直接按对待朝鲜的方式来对付中国就好,我是土生土长的大陆穷二代,我赞成最极端的封锁策略,把屎...

中国由于有上亿的劳动力,所以是欧美资本家不可能忽视的市场。美国可以对朝鲜彻底封锁,但是如果对中国也封锁,资本家是不会允许的。
洋大爷幻想土匪能从良
只能说 下场一次比一次 可怕
平近习 灰名单
作为中国的民运先驱魏老还是有点水平的
最后土共可能是会主动分享一些利益给老美来换取残喘时间,从最近的金融开放可以看出一点迹象,老美最终要的是利益也不会冒着世界经济倒退甚至战争摩擦的风险去推翻土共。
m3gts 观察
说美国天真的完全naive,就算当时进WTO是判断失误,最近几年华尔街金融骗子们顶风作案把中概股包装上市割韭菜算什么?支美两国统治集团是合作共赢的关系,支国巨量人肉电池和巨大市场世所罕见,而且克林顿也不是什么因为相信支国市场化能民主转型才推动支国入世的白莲花,China gate了解一下
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_campaign_finance_controversy
京生这样讲毫无问题,他的意见不是改良共产党,实际上是在干翻共产党,只不过不是靠制裁方式,假如共产党全部反对,共产党也是死路一条,制裁到把你弄死,然后美国自己来搞一套自由贸易规则和人权法律管中国。
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消灭共匪是我们的事,和外国人无关。
加油中国人
>>说美国天真的完全naive,就算当时进WTO是判断失误,最近几年华尔街金融骗子们顶风作案把中概股包装...
你讲到了中美竞争的本质。国外很多反共频道和人士看不懂美国真正的统治精英的想法,华尔街那帮大佬和中共其实很多利益是相同的,中共玩的是阳谋,就是人性贪婪。美国发展到今天基本已经脱离了立国之初的价值观,二战之后彻底成为了恶龙之一。

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天涯未远 江湖再见

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