關於這次肺炎感染人數的嚴謹分析
現在英美的專家已經出了一篇初步的分析報告，想看全文的朋友自己搜索標題"Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions"去網上找。
這裡我貼出報告裡的要點
Key findings
We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (R0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.
這個病的R0估計在3.6到4之間，也就是說要有效的阻擋住72%到75%的傳播才能止住病例的增加
We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.
目前確知的感染人數估計只有總感染人數的5.1%
If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250 thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
如果沒有能夠控制傳播，其他城市也會爆發，包括傳到國外地方。他們的模型預測到2月4日武漢的感染人數也許會達到25萬（預測區間164,602到351,396之間，我還沒仔細看全文，如果是95%的confidence interval也就是說基本有95%的可能未來感染人數會在16萬到35萬之間，注意是武漢一個地方）內地的北上廣成都和重慶預測會有大爆發，海外的話，最可能的是泰國日本台灣香港和韓國。
Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.
武漢封城其實沒太大鳥用，封了99%的出入交通也只預計會讓武漢以外的疫情降低24.9%
There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These should be considered when interpreting our findings.
當然，這些預測建立在模型的假設和數據上，不是絕對可靠的。
這裡我貼出報告裡的要點
Key findings
We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (R0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.
這個病的R0估計在3.6到4之間，也就是說要有效的阻擋住72%到75%的傳播才能止住病例的增加
We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.
目前確知的感染人數估計只有總感染人數的5.1%
If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250 thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
如果沒有能夠控制傳播，其他城市也會爆發，包括傳到國外地方。他們的模型預測到2月4日武漢的感染人數也許會達到25萬（預測區間164,602到351,396之間，我還沒仔細看全文，如果是95%的confidence interval也就是說基本有95%的可能未來感染人數會在16萬到35萬之間，注意是武漢一個地方）內地的北上廣成都和重慶預測會有大爆發，海外的話，最可能的是泰國日本台灣香港和韓國。
Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.
武漢封城其實沒太大鳥用，封了99%的出入交通也只預計會讓武漢以外的疫情降低24.9%
There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These should be considered when interpreting our findings.
當然，這些預測建立在模型的假設和數據上，不是絕對可靠的。
