美国企业协会对武汉病毒中国传播实际数据的估计

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/estimating-the-true-number-of-chinas-covid-19-cases/

Key Points

  • China’s COVID-19 figures are not arithmetically sensible. The Communist Party has deliberately made estimation difficult, but, outside of Wuhan city and Hubei province, cases are low by a factor of 100 or more.
  • In late January, Chinese media provided information about migrant outflow from Wuhan before quarantine. Using a lower number than theirs, then conservative figures for migrants’ infection rate and time in circulation before national lockdown, generates an estimate of 2.9 million cases.  
  • This is partly due to China’s huge population. That population can also hide COVID-19 among tens of millions of respiratory illnesses. Along with harshly enforced censorship, the population can hide tens of thousands of deaths.
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分享 2020-04-09

5 个评论

不是《美国企业协会》,是美国企业研究所,一个著名的保守派智库。

作者也是著名的研究中国的专家Derek Scissors,有个中文名“史剑道”,有时还在美国之音的中文频道露面。

三个关键点:

在武汉、湖北之外的数字,恐怕是除以100,甚至更多的后果

估计有2900000例感染

中国的人口基数,提供足够多的呼吸道感染统计项目,得以隐藏数以万计的COVID-19死亡者。
Using a lower number than theirs, then conservative figures for migrants’ infection rate and time in circulation before national lockdown, generates an estimate of 2.9 million cases.  

第二点里有这样一句话,谁能解释一下?

用了一个比他们(这里的他们是指中共官方吧)低的数值,则全境封锁前的迁入感染率和传播时间生成约2千9百万的案例?

不是嫌官方数字低报了吗?怎么还要用更低的数值来计算?
In late January, Chinese media provided information about migrant outflow from Wuhan before quarantine. Using a lower number than theirs, then conservative figures for migrants’ infection rate and time in circulation before national lockdown, generates an estimate of 2.9 million cases. 

在一月底时,中国媒体提供了在武汉封城前逃走的人数。取比他们逃走人数的更低值,乘上逃亡者感染他人的最保守的比率(我估计就是中国的2.1%?),从封城到全国封城期间,这些逃亡者约感染了两百九十万人。

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