美国企业协会对武汉病毒中国传播实际数据的估计
https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/estimating-the-true-number-of-chinas-covid-19-cases/
Key Points
Key Points
- China’s COVID-19 figures are not arithmetically sensible. The Communist Party has deliberately made estimation difficult, but, outside of Wuhan city and Hubei province, cases are low by a factor of 100 or more.
- In late January, Chinese media provided information about migrant outflow from Wuhan before quarantine. Using a lower number than theirs, then conservative figures for migrants’ infection rate and time in circulation before national lockdown, generates an estimate of 2.9 million cases.
- This is partly due to China’s huge population. That population can also hide COVID-19 among tens of millions of respiratory illnesses. Along with harshly enforced censorship, the population can hide tens of thousands of deaths.
5 个评论
Using a lower number than theirs, then conservative figures for migrants’ infection rate and time in circulation before national lockdown, generates an estimate of 2.9 million cases.
第二点里有这样一句话，谁能解释一下？
用了一个比他们（这里的他们是指中共官方吧）低的数值，则全境封锁前的迁入感染率和传播时间生成约2千9百万的案例？
不是嫌官方数字低报了吗？怎么还要用更低的数值来计算？
