威斯康星州先期投票与邮寄选票总结：共和党占优
https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/wisconsin-early-ballot-returns-show-recent-polls-are-wrong-as-republicans-storm-the-polls-now-ahead-in-wi/?amp=1
威斯康星州 传统意义的蓝州 上次川普翻红的州之一
已经有46%的威斯康星州预估选票了 比任何一个poll都有说服力： 42%共和党 36%民主党
https://i2.wp.com/www.toptradeguru.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Wisconsin-1-e1603718926443.png?resize=580%2C171&ssl=1Source: NBC
With 1,294,660 ballots cast, the GOP leads the early vote in Wisconsin. 42% GOP to 36% DEM. About 46% of the estimated total votes for 2020 have been cast. In Wisconsin, you can register and vote the same day, so this is still a close race. Over the past few days, Republicans have stormed the polls and are beginning to take the lead in early voting in several sates. The following data is derived from actual ballots cast.
The sample size is larger than any poll, and makes this a more accurate indicator of voting preference. This data does not account for specific demographics or segments of the electorate that still have to vote. In general, though, Republicans are more weary of casting mail-in votes, and are waiting for election day. If that assumption is correct, President Trump has the advantage in Wisconsin.
目前各大民调拜登在威斯康星州领先至少5%
Republicans are expected to have a swell of voters cast ballots, as we approach November 3rd, 2020. In Wisconsin, this effect may be subdued since so many Republicans have voted early. However, the remaining poll of super-voters in Wisconsin remains split between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have the clear edge because they are currently up. But the race is far from over.
These early ballot numbers are unexpected because the current aggregate of polls show Biden up 5+ points and the Democrats were suppose to have the clear advantage in early voting.
However, emerging evidence suggests that Trump supporters do not trust polls, and therefore, do not take their calls — especially when it requires a time commitment of at least twenty minutes.
While it appears that President Trump is on the cusp of victory in Wisconsin, this can only happen if Republicans continue to show up with the same vigor as they have up until this point. In other words, Trump has a very good chance of winning Wisconsin–about 90%–if Republicans do not get complacent.
18-29岁选民投票率不高 仅占总投票人数5% 2016年为17% 民主党如果要取胜 势必要去催年轻选票
但是现在大学都不是正常运作的 很多大学生没在学校 （thanks to 民主党的lock everything down政策） 所以还是有难度的 当然 年轻的民主党选民看见这个结果主动跑出去投票也很可能
Particularly worrisome for Democrats is the absence of the youth voters (18-29) as a percentage. Because voting is up 309% from this time in 2016, raw numbers show the youth vote up. In 2020, as a percentage of the electorate, 18-29 year olds cast only 5% of the total vote. In 2016, they were 17% of the electorate. This data suggests that young people are not showing up at the same rate.
https://i2.wp.com/www.toptradeguru.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Wisconsin-Youth.png?resize=580%2C160&ssl=1Source: NBC News.
As Democratic strategists pore over early numbers, a clear and unexpected trend is emerging: The lock-downs are suppressing the college vote. Many college social events are tied to campaign events for Democratic candidates. Not this year with COVID-19 lock-downs.
Also, a general complacency within college-age Democrats of an inevitable Biden win has gripped campuses. As it turns out, many college outreach initiatives have been cancelled. Some of these events include virtual rallies, voting caravans and door-to-door canvassing. From our interview with a few organizers in the upper-Midwest, these cancellations are due to Biden’s ‘huge lead’ and concerns over social distancing. The result? College students have not turned out to vote, yet. It’s not clear if they will turn out.
威斯康星州 传统意义的蓝州 上次川普翻红的州之一
已经有46%的威斯康星州预估选票了 比任何一个poll都有说服力： 42%共和党 36%民主党
https://i2.wp.com/www.toptradeguru.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Wisconsin-1-e1603718926443.png?resize=580%2C171&ssl=1Source: NBC
With 1,294,660 ballots cast, the GOP leads the early vote in Wisconsin. 42% GOP to 36% DEM. About 46% of the estimated total votes for 2020 have been cast. In Wisconsin, you can register and vote the same day, so this is still a close race. Over the past few days, Republicans have stormed the polls and are beginning to take the lead in early voting in several sates. The following data is derived from actual ballots cast.
The sample size is larger than any poll, and makes this a more accurate indicator of voting preference. This data does not account for specific demographics or segments of the electorate that still have to vote. In general, though, Republicans are more weary of casting mail-in votes, and are waiting for election day. If that assumption is correct, President Trump has the advantage in Wisconsin.
目前各大民调拜登在威斯康星州领先至少5%
Republicans are expected to have a swell of voters cast ballots, as we approach November 3rd, 2020. In Wisconsin, this effect may be subdued since so many Republicans have voted early. However, the remaining poll of super-voters in Wisconsin remains split between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have the clear edge because they are currently up. But the race is far from over.
These early ballot numbers are unexpected because the current aggregate of polls show Biden up 5+ points and the Democrats were suppose to have the clear advantage in early voting.
However, emerging evidence suggests that Trump supporters do not trust polls, and therefore, do not take their calls — especially when it requires a time commitment of at least twenty minutes.
While it appears that President Trump is on the cusp of victory in Wisconsin, this can only happen if Republicans continue to show up with the same vigor as they have up until this point. In other words, Trump has a very good chance of winning Wisconsin–about 90%–if Republicans do not get complacent.
18-29岁选民投票率不高 仅占总投票人数5% 2016年为17% 民主党如果要取胜 势必要去催年轻选票
但是现在大学都不是正常运作的 很多大学生没在学校 （thanks to 民主党的lock everything down政策） 所以还是有难度的 当然 年轻的民主党选民看见这个结果主动跑出去投票也很可能
Particularly worrisome for Democrats is the absence of the youth voters (18-29) as a percentage. Because voting is up 309% from this time in 2016, raw numbers show the youth vote up. In 2020, as a percentage of the electorate, 18-29 year olds cast only 5% of the total vote. In 2016, they were 17% of the electorate. This data suggests that young people are not showing up at the same rate.
As Democratic strategists pore over early numbers, a clear and unexpected trend is emerging: The lock-downs are suppressing the college vote. Many college social events are tied to campaign events for Democratic candidates. Not this year with COVID-19 lock-downs.
Also, a general complacency within college-age Democrats of an inevitable Biden win has gripped campuses. As it turns out, many college outreach initiatives have been cancelled. Some of these events include virtual rallies, voting caravans and door-to-door canvassing. From our interview with a few organizers in the upper-Midwest, these cancellations are due to Biden’s ‘huge lead’ and concerns over social distancing. The result? College students have not turned out to vote, yet. It’s not clear if they will turn out.
