海峡时报又说「最后时刻生变亦非不可能」了
链接在此：https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/last-minute-changes-in-china-s-leadership-reshuffle-possible
不知道是不是海峡时报升级了，Bypass Paywall Clean 不管用了，archive.today 也拽不到全文，因此完全不知道它全文说了啥。
不知道是不是海峡时报升级了，Bypass Paywall Clean 不管用了，archive.today 也拽不到全文，因此完全不知道它全文说了啥。
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尼玛，我在老老实实付钱
BEIJING - The countdown has begun for a sweeping once-every-five-year reshuffle of China’s supreme leadership on Sunday that will see President Xi Jinping assume a rare third term as head of the Communist Party of China (CPC), but 11th-hour changes cannot be ruled out.
About 2,300 delegates will elect around 200 full members and 170 alternate members of the party’s top leadership body, its Central Committee, on the last day of a week-long congress on Saturday.
During the first plenary session of the new 20th Central Committee the following day, full members will in turn elect the party’s 25-member Politburo, its Standing Committee (SC) and the general secretary, as well as the chairman and vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and the chief of the anti-corruption watchdog, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI).
Mr Xi, the country’s most powerful leader since Chairman Mao Zedong, is set to secure a third five-year term as the party’s general secretary and CMC chairman during the one-day plenum.
China’s elite political manoeuvring has become more opaque under Mr Xi, who has clamped down on leaks regarding internal politics and backroom negotiations. It is anyone’s guess who will make it into the SC – the pinnacle of power in China – and whether the number of leaders in this highest order will stay at seven or be expanded to nine, as it was during the two terms of Mr Hu Jintao.
“This time, not even a fly is able to fly out” of the closed-door meetings, a source with ties to the leadership said, referring to how the reshuffle is shrouded in secrecy.
But one party insider who requested anonymity told The Straits Times that “the biggest variable is Li Keqiang”, referring to China’s 67-year-old Premier who is ranked second in the SC behind Mr Xi.
Mr Li must step down as premier after two five-year terms, but he has not reached retirement age and can retain his SC seat for another five-year term.
An informal retirement norm better known as the “seven up, eight down” rule sets at 67 the age limit for old and new members of the SC and the Politburo at the start of a new term. Politicians aged 68 or older are disqualified.
But Mr Li, who some say is frustrated playing second fiddle to the strongman President in the past 10 years, is said to want full retirement.
“Li Keqiang wants to luo tui due to health reasons,” the insider said, using a Chinese term that literally means “naked retirement” that describes a cadre who will no longer hold any official or non-official position in any organisation.
“But this could send the wrong message that he and Xi do not get along. Party elders are trying to convince him to stay on.”
If they succeed, he could become chairman of the National People’s Congress or Parliament in 2023 while retaining his No. 2 rank.
China’s 67-year-old Premier Li Keqiang (right) is ranked second in the Standing Committee behind President Xi Jinping. PHOTO: REUTERS
Mr Xi needs to balance the factions and at least listen to what the party elders want. But he also has a penchant for breaking with tradition and could well spring surprises at the plenum on Sunday.
If he stays faithful to the “seven up, eight down” practice – while at age 69, exempting himself from it – currently third-ranked Li Zhanshu, 72, and seventh-ranked Han Zheng, 68, will step down.
Fourth-ranked Wang Yang, 67, who is chairman of Parliament’s top advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, has been tipped to succeed Mr Li as premier in 2023. As far as seniority goes, Mr Wang should be next in line for the prime minister’s job, moving from fourth to third rank.
Tradition also dictates that only those who have been vice-premiers and are capable of managing the economy can be appointed premier. Mr Wang was vice-premier between 2013 and 2018, overseeing commerce, among other things.
Ideology czar, the fifth-ranked Wang Huning, 67, may not have reached retirement age, but he could
BEIJING - The countdown has begun for a sweeping once-every-five-year reshuffle of China’s supreme leadership on Sunday that will see President Xi Jinping assume a rare third term as head of the Communist Party of China (CPC), but 11th-hour changes cannot be ruled out.
About 2,300 delegates will elect around 200 full members and 170 alternate members of the party’s top leadership body, its Central Committee, on the last day of a week-long congress on Saturday.
During the first plenary session of the new 20th Central Committee the following day, full members will in turn elect the party’s 25-member Politburo, its Standing Committee (SC) and the general secretary, as well as the chairman and vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and the chief of the anti-corruption watchdog, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI).
Mr Xi, the country’s most powerful leader since Chairman Mao Zedong, is set to secure a third five-year term as the party’s general secretary and CMC chairman during the one-day plenum.
China’s elite political manoeuvring has become more opaque under Mr Xi, who has clamped down on leaks regarding internal politics and backroom negotiations. It is anyone’s guess who will make it into the SC – the pinnacle of power in China – and whether the number of leaders in this highest order will stay at seven or be expanded to nine, as it was during the two terms of Mr Hu Jintao.
“This time, not even a fly is able to fly out” of the closed-door meetings, a source with ties to the leadership said, referring to how the reshuffle is shrouded in secrecy.
But one party insider who requested anonymity told The Straits Times that “the biggest variable is Li Keqiang”, referring to China’s 67-year-old Premier who is ranked second in the SC behind Mr Xi.
Mr Li must step down as premier after two five-year terms, but he has not reached retirement age and can retain his SC seat for another five-year term.
An informal retirement norm better known as the “seven up, eight down” rule sets at 67 the age limit for old and new members of the SC and the Politburo at the start of a new term. Politicians aged 68 or older are disqualified.
But Mr Li, who some say is frustrated playing second fiddle to the strongman President in the past 10 years, is said to want full retirement.
“Li Keqiang wants to luo tui due to health reasons,” the insider said, using a Chinese term that literally means “naked retirement” that describes a cadre who will no longer hold any official or non-official position in any organisation.
“But this could send the wrong message that he and Xi do not get along. Party elders are trying to convince him to stay on.”
If they succeed, he could become chairman of the National People’s Congress or Parliament in 2023 while retaining his No. 2 rank.
China’s 67-year-old Premier Li Keqiang (right) is ranked second in the Standing Committee behind President Xi Jinping. PHOTO: REUTERS
Mr Xi needs to balance the factions and at least listen to what the party elders want. But he also has a penchant for breaking with tradition and could well spring surprises at the plenum on Sunday.
If he stays faithful to the “seven up, eight down” practice – while at age 69, exempting himself from it – currently third-ranked Li Zhanshu, 72, and seventh-ranked Han Zheng, 68, will step down.
Fourth-ranked Wang Yang, 67, who is chairman of Parliament’s top advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, has been tipped to succeed Mr Li as premier in 2023. As far as seniority goes, Mr Wang should be next in line for the prime minister’s job, moving from fourth to third rank.
Tradition also dictates that only those who have been vice-premiers and are capable of managing the economy can be appointed premier. Mr Wang was vice-premier between 2013 and 2018, overseeing commerce, among other things.
Ideology czar, the fifth-ranked Wang Huning, 67, may not have reached retirement age, but he could
