金融时报：自1949年中国人口首次下降－低于14亿
https://www .ft.com/content/008ea78a-8bc1-4954-b283-700608d3dc6c
China is set to report its first population decline since records began in 1949 despite the relaxation of the government’s strict family planning policies, which was meant to reverse the falling birth rate of the world’s most populous country.
The latest Chinese census, which was completed in December but has yet to be made public, is expected to report the total population of the country at less than 1.4bn, according to people familiar with the research. In 2019, China’s population was reported to have exceeded the 1.4bn mark.
https://amp .ft.com/content/008ea78a-8bc1-4954-b283-700608d3dc6c?__twitter_impression=true
China is set to report its first population decline since records began in 1949 despite the relaxation of the government’s strict family planning policies, which was meant to reverse the falling birth rate of the world’s most populous country.
The latest Chinese census, which was completed in December but has yet to be made public, is expected to report the total population of the country at less than 1.4bn, according to people familiar with the research. In 2019, China’s population was reported to have exceeded the 1.4bn mark.
https://amp .ft.com/content/008ea78a-8bc1-4954-b283-700608d3dc6c?__twitter_impression=true
80 个评论
>> 这也不见得。事实是即使最悲观的估计，到2100年中国人口只有6亿，这个数字依然大于美国。真正的...
到2100年，现在的14亿人基本死光了，剩下一些80以上老人可以忽略不计。那么要达到6亿人口，从2020年到2100年，这80年里平均每年必须出生750万人，且全部活到2100年。若加上早死的、出国的，大概要800万吧。2020年出生人口1000万，按女性500万来算，20年后达到育龄，除去早夭的、跑路的、不孕不育的、不婚不生的，剩下的算400万，平均每个人必须生2个才能完成800万的任务。再过20年，育龄女性不足400万，每个人要生更多才能到达800万。
今后的女性生育任务十分繁重啊，你确定6亿人口是最悲观的估计？
