右翼分子吐槽扯淡专楼
"The defense of individual rights has reached such extremes as to make society as a whole defenseless against certain individuals. It is time, in the West, to defend not so much human rights as human obligations.
On the other hand, destructive and irresponsible freedom has been granted boundless space. Society has turned out to have scarce defense against the abyss of human decadence, for example against the misuse of liberty for moral violence against young people, such as motion pictures full of pornography, crime, and horror. This is all considered to be part of freedom and to be counterbalanced, in theory, by the young people’s right not to look and not to accept. Life organized legalistically has thus shown its inability to defend itself against the corrosion of evil.
......
This tilt of freedom toward evil has come about gradually, but it evidently stems from a humanistic and benevolent concept according to which man—the master of this world—does not bear any evil within himself, and all the defects of life are caused by misguided social systems, which must therefore be corrected."
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Harvard Commencement Address ("A World Split Apart"), June 8, 1978
On the other hand, destructive and irresponsible freedom has been granted boundless space. Society has turned out to have scarce defense against the abyss of human decadence, for example against the misuse of liberty for moral violence against young people, such as motion pictures full of pornography, crime, and horror. This is all considered to be part of freedom and to be counterbalanced, in theory, by the young people’s right not to look and not to accept. Life organized legalistically has thus shown its inability to defend itself against the corrosion of evil.
......
This tilt of freedom toward evil has come about gradually, but it evidently stems from a humanistic and benevolent concept according to which man—the master of this world—does not bear any evil within himself, and all the defects of life are caused by misguided social systems, which must therefore be corrected."
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Harvard Commencement Address ("A World Split Apart"), June 8, 1978
1473 个评论
不妨把2014年起始、今后还要延续很长时间的西方对俄制裁看作对自由国际秩序的一个要件的测试,测试问题是:经济制裁作为威慑和惩戒手段是否对于维护秩序足够有效。
从目前的反馈看,两点已经可以确定:
一、制裁作为预防恶行的手段,效果有限:对于一个足够强大的政权,遭受制裁的前景并不能遏制他们采取破坏性行动,只要该政权及其大部分国民认定,值得为了该行动而承受程度难料的经济损失。政权和国民在衡量得失的时候并不必然是理性经济人,有一些目标,比如维护国家安全、民族统一会被视作超越经济利益的使命。
二、制裁作为中止正在实施的恶行的手段,效果同样有限:许多制裁需要数月甚至更长时间才能在对象身上产生可感后果,因此无法吓阻专注于当下行动得失的政权。以俄罗斯为例,目前卢布表现强劲,石油收入高涨,民众支持战争不动摇,普京没有收手的动机。此外,一旦受制裁方深深嵌入全球经济体系,制裁方同样要承受经济后果,后果可能反而先临到他们头上,而且范围超出预想。因此短期内可能产生一个尴尬的观感:制裁方伤人不成,反而害己。如此观感也许会在日后影响不同制裁者决策时的团结。
不确定的一点是,制裁作为长久孤立作恶者的手段效果如何。就俄罗斯一例而言,目前的预期是可以生效。实际情况要看将来。但即使生效,制裁导致的更多后果——比如俄国进一步集权,或者其崩溃导致欧亚大陆内乱——恐怕对制裁者并非利好。
假如“制裁不是好用的维护秩序的工具”这一点被时局发展证实并被广泛承认,自由国际秩序将遭受无法挽回的伤害,因为体系中一个不能补救的缺陷被暴露在了光天化日之下。但那不是该秩序在当下冲突中第一次无法挽回地受到创伤:贯彻《布达佩斯备忘录》的失败已经让大国的安全保证丧失了信用,类似的安保承诺只能从构建秩序的工具库中丢弃。
从目前的反馈看,两点已经可以确定:
一、制裁作为预防恶行的手段,效果有限:对于一个足够强大的政权,遭受制裁的前景并不能遏制他们采取破坏性行动,只要该政权及其大部分国民认定,值得为了该行动而承受程度难料的经济损失。政权和国民在衡量得失的时候并不必然是理性经济人,有一些目标,比如维护国家安全、民族统一会被视作超越经济利益的使命。
二、制裁作为中止正在实施的恶行的手段,效果同样有限:许多制裁需要数月甚至更长时间才能在对象身上产生可感后果,因此无法吓阻专注于当下行动得失的政权。以俄罗斯为例,目前卢布表现强劲,石油收入高涨,民众支持战争不动摇,普京没有收手的动机。此外,一旦受制裁方深深嵌入全球经济体系,制裁方同样要承受经济后果,后果可能反而先临到他们头上,而且范围超出预想。因此短期内可能产生一个尴尬的观感:制裁方伤人不成,反而害己。如此观感也许会在日后影响不同制裁者决策时的团结。
不确定的一点是,制裁作为长久孤立作恶者的手段效果如何。就俄罗斯一例而言,目前的预期是可以生效。实际情况要看将来。但即使生效,制裁导致的更多后果——比如俄国进一步集权,或者其崩溃导致欧亚大陆内乱——恐怕对制裁者并非利好。
假如“制裁不是好用的维护秩序的工具”这一点被时局发展证实并被广泛承认,自由国际秩序将遭受无法挽回的伤害,因为体系中一个不能补救的缺陷被暴露在了光天化日之下。但那不是该秩序在当下冲突中第一次无法挽回地受到创伤:贯彻《布达佩斯备忘录》的失败已经让大国的安全保证丧失了信用,类似的安保承诺只能从构建秩序的工具库中丢弃。