如何看待中国通赫德爵士1900年描写与预言中国的未来？

中文版：今天的这一事件（义和团运动）不是没有意义的，它是一个要发生变革的世纪的序幕，是远东未来历史的基调：2000年的中国将大大不同于1900年的中国！民族感情是一个永久性的因素，这是必须承认的，在研究一个民族世纪状况时，决不能排除这个因素，而在中国，唯一普遍存在的感情就是对中国制度的自豪和对外国一切的蔑视 .......

中国人是一个有才智、有教养的种族，冷静、勤劳，有自己的文明，无论语言、思想和感情各方面都是中国式的，人口总数约有四亿，生活在自己的疆域内，在他们所繁衍的的国度里有肥沃的土地和众多的江河，有千姿百态的高山和平原、丘陵和溪谷，有各种各样的气候和条件，地面上生产着一个民族所需要的一切，地底下埋藏着从未开发过的无穷的宝藏，这个种族，在经过数千年唯我独尊与闭关自守之后，已经迫于形势和外来者的巨大优势，同世界其余各国发生了条约关系，但是他们认为那是一种耻辱，他们知道从这种关系中得不到好处，所以正在指望有朝一日自己能够十足地强大起来，重新恢复昔日的生活，排除同外国的交往、一切外来的干涉和入侵，用睡眠来形容，这个民族已经酣睡了很久，但现在他已经苏醒，他的每一个成员身上都激荡着一种中国人的情感“中国人是中国的，把外国人赶出去！”

义和团无疑是官方煽动的产物，但是这个运动已经吸纳了群众的想象力，将会像野火一样烧遍中国各个角落。简单说来，它是一个纯粹的爱国的自发运动，其目标是使中国强盛起来--以实现中国人的计划。通过武力来达到它所预期的目的，即根除外国宗教和驱逐外国人的目的，它的第一次实验并不是十分成功，但是，作为一次对志愿行动是否可行的试探，或者作为将来所要采取的途径和手段的一次试验，它并不是一次失败。他证明了广大民众会如何齐心协力的响应号召，也进一步表明原来谨小慎微的官方有意限制义和团只使用大刀长矛，这是不够的，必须要用毛瑟步枪和克虏伯大炮来代替他，将来的爱国者将拥有金钱所能买到的最好武器" ..........

"危及世界未来”这几个字无疑将引起哄堂大笑，好吧，让他们去笑吧，但愿他们会一直笑下去，两千万或两千万以上武装起来的、训练有素、纪律严明而又被爱国（即使是被误解了）动机所激励的团民，将使外国人不可能再在中国住下去，将从外国人那里收回外国人从中国拿去的一切，将额外加价的报复旧日的怨恨，将把中国的国旗和中国的武器带到许许多多现在连想都想不到的地方去。

五十年以后，就将有千百万团民排成密集队形，穿戴全副盔甲，听候中国政府的号召，这一点是不用怀疑的！如果中国政府继续存在下去，它将鼓励（而这样鼓励是很对的）支持并发展这个中华民族运动；这个运动对世界其余各国将是不祥之兆，但是中国有权这样做，中国将贯彻她的民族计划！" ..............

“中国将会有很长时期的挣扎，还会做错很多的事情和遭受极大的灾难，但或迟或早，这个国家将会以健康的、强大的、经验老到的姿态呈现于世界，并拥有这个世界强加给它的军事力量，而且，既然它必须拥有，它必将拥有最好的--最好的武器，最适当的训练，最高级的教育，士兵的数量将视人口的允许和情况的需要而定，士兵的质量将会一代胜过一代，今天，为了义和团在去年的所作所为而惩罚中国，西方在禁止向中国出口的物品中包括武器，关于这一点，一位贵胄子弟曾对我说：”很好，这将迫使我们成为生产者，且请记住我的话，总有一天我们会成为出口商，不仅那样，而且还会比现在的制造商卖的更便宜。

英文原文：
What precedes, as already explained, is not THE PEKING LEGATIONS a chronicle it is simply a note to give readers a bird's-eye view of the unprecedented occur- rences of a Peking summer and prepare the way for directing attention briefly to the future thereby foreshadowed : as for daily details, they will be found in many quarters elsewhere from the reports and pens of many observers. This episode of to-day is not meaningless it is the prelude to a century of change and the keynote of the future history of the Far East : the China of the year 2000 will be very different from the China of 1900 ! National sentiment is a constant factor which must be recognized, and not eliminated, when dealing with national facts, and the one feeling that is universal in China is pride in Chinese institutions and con- tempt for foreign : treaty intercourse has not altered this if anything, it has deepened it, and the future will not be uninfluenced by it. The first question now to be settled by the Treaty Powers is how to make peace, for China is at war with all ; and what conditions to impose to safeguard the future, for the stipulations of the past have been set at defiance and obliterated.

There would seem to be a choice between three courses partition, change of dynasty, or patching up the Manchoo rule. As regards partition that plan, like every other, has its good and its bad sides ; but, with such an enormous population, it could never be  "THESE FROM THE LAND OF SINIM" expected to be a final settlement, and unrest and unhappiness and uncertainty would run through all succeeding generations. The Chinaman is a very practical person, and accepts the rule of those who have the power to rule and the good sense to rule justly with greater equanimity than others ; but, all the same, there is such a thing as Chinese feeling and Chinese aspiration, and these will never be stamped out, but will live and seethe and work beneath the surface through all time, even under the most beneficent rule, and in the end it may be sooner, it may be later assert themselves and win their object. That the future will have ai" yellow" question perhaps a yellow "peril" to deal with, is as certain as that the sun will shine tomorrow : how can its appearance be delayed, or combated, or by any action taken now turned into harmless channels? As to setting up a new dynasty there is no man of mark all China would accept ; the plan would plunge the country into years of anarchy, and for a dynasty to be established by a concert of foreign Powers would be an ear-mark of weakness and disgrace for ever after. Remains, then, the third plan to accept the existing dynasty as a going concern, and, in a word, make the best of it. The present dynasty is far from effete ; its mandate runs through all China its recognition would be the easiest solution for all THE PEKING LEGATIONS powers to acquiesce in and support given to it would restore general tranquillity more quickly and more effectually than any other action; the possible flight of the Court may, however, introduce a new element and require yet another arrangement.

But what is this "Yellow Peril"? The Chinese, an intelligent, cultivated race, sober, industrious, and on its own lines civilized, homogeneous in language, thought, and feeling, which numbers some four hundred millions, lives in its own ring-fence, and covers a country made up of fertile land and teeming waters, with infinite variety of mountain and plain, hill and dale, and every kind of climate and condition, producing on its surface all that a people requires and hiding in its bosom untold virgin wealth that has never yet been disturbed, this race, after thousands of years of haughty seclusion and exclusiveness, has been pushed by the force of circumstances and by the superior strength of assailants into treaty relations with the rest of the world, but regards that as a humiliation, sees no benefit accruing from it, and is looking forward to the day when it in turn will be strong enough to revert to its old life again and do away with foreign intercourse, interference, and intrusion. It has slept long, as we count sleep, but it is awake at last, and its every member is tingling with "THESE FROM THE LAND OF SINIM " Chinese feeling " China for the Chinese and out with the foreigners ! " The Boxer movement is doubtless the product of official inspiration, but it has taken hold of the popular imagination, and will spread like wildfire all over the length and breadth of the country ; it is, in short, a purely patriotic volunteer movement, and its object is to strengthen China and for a Chinese programme.

Its first ex- perience has not been altogether a success as regards the attainment through strength of proposed ends, the rooting up of foreign cults and the ejection of foreigners ; but it is not a failure in respect of the feeler it put out will volunteering work ? or as an experiment that would test ways and means and guide future choice. It has proved how to a man the people will respond to the call, and it has further demonstrated that the swords and spears to which the prudent official mind confined the initiated will not suffice, but must be supplemented or replaced by Mauser rifles and Krupp guns. The Boxer patriot of the future will possess the best weapons money can buy, and then the " Yellow Peril" will be beyond ignoring. Wn Hsiang, the celebrated Prime Minister of China during the minority of Tung Chih in the early sixties, often said, "You are all tooanxious to awake us and start us on a new road, and you will do it ; but you will all regret THE PEKING LEGATIONS it, for, once awaking and started, we shall go fast and far farther than you think much farther than you want! " His words are very true.