右翼分子吐槽扯淡专楼
"The defense of individual rights has reached such extremes as to make society as a whole defenseless against certain individuals. It is time, in the West, to defend not so much human rights as human obligations.
On the other hand, destructive and irresponsible freedom has been granted boundless space. Society has turned out to have scarce defense against the abyss of human decadence, for example against the misuse of liberty for moral violence against young people, such as motion pictures full of pornography, crime, and horror. This is all considered to be part of freedom and to be counterbalanced, in theory, by the young people’s right not to look and not to accept. Life organized legalistically has thus shown its inability to defend itself against the corrosion of evil.
......
This tilt of freedom toward evil has come about gradually, but it evidently stems from a humanistic and benevolent concept according to which man—the master of this world—does not bear any evil within himself, and all the defects of life are caused by misguided social systems, which must therefore be corrected."
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Harvard Commencement Address ("A World Split Apart"), June 8, 1978
On the other hand, destructive and irresponsible freedom has been granted boundless space. Society has turned out to have scarce defense against the abyss of human decadence, for example against the misuse of liberty for moral violence against young people, such as motion pictures full of pornography, crime, and horror. This is all considered to be part of freedom and to be counterbalanced, in theory, by the young people’s right not to look and not to accept. Life organized legalistically has thus shown its inability to defend itself against the corrosion of evil.
......
This tilt of freedom toward evil has come about gradually, but it evidently stems from a humanistic and benevolent concept according to which man—the master of this world—does not bear any evil within himself, and all the defects of life are caused by misguided social systems, which must therefore be corrected."
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Harvard Commencement Address ("A World Split Apart"), June 8, 1978
1473 个评论
Allie Beth Stuckey @conservmillen
“All the sexual revolution stuff was fine until they started going after kids.” Nope. Wrong. From pagan Greece & Rome to Alfred Kinsey & John Money, sexual “liberation” movements have ALWAYS included child predation.
Understand that one form of degeneracy always leads to another. It has no moral foundation and therefore no limiting principle.
https://twitter.com/conservmillen/status/1533855750560391168
Auron MacIntyre @AuronMacintyre
Replying to @conservmillen
They don't understand that deconstructing a moral foundation is not the same as constructing one on
They called demolition progress and proudly stood on the rubble wondering why there was nothing to shelter their children from the inevitable
https://twitter.com/AuronMacintyre/status/1533857318454153218
“All the sexual revolution stuff was fine until they started going after kids.” Nope. Wrong. From pagan Greece & Rome to Alfred Kinsey & John Money, sexual “liberation” movements have ALWAYS included child predation.
Understand that one form of degeneracy always leads to another. It has no moral foundation and therefore no limiting principle.
https://twitter.com/conservmillen/status/1533855750560391168
Auron MacIntyre @AuronMacintyre
Replying to @conservmillen
They don't understand that deconstructing a moral foundation is not the same as constructing one on
They called demolition progress and proudly stood on the rubble wondering why there was nothing to shelter their children from the inevitable
https://twitter.com/AuronMacintyre/status/1533857318454153218
Experts warn arms for Ukraine could end up in wrong hands
Paris (AFP) – Western countries have been ramping up weapons and ammunition shipments to Ukraine as Kyiv fights off a Russian invasion, but arms trade experts warn some of the lethal assistance could end up falling into the wrong hands.
Ukraine in particular has a history as a hub of the arms trade during the 1990s, setting off alarm bells for those who study illicit flows.
...
"While the response to provide more weapons to Ukraine is understandable..., it would be prudent to consider the immediate and long-term security implications," the US-based Stimson Center think-tank said in March.
"We’ve seen time and time again how arms aimed at aiding an ally in one conflict have found their way to the frontlines of unforeseen battlefields, often in the hands of groups at odds with US interests or those of civilians," it added, pointing especially to small arms.
...
Annie Shiel of the Center for Civilians in Conflict (Civic) warned that "there has been very little transparency around what risk mitigation or monitoring steps the US and other countries sending weapons to Ukraine have taken, if any... to ensure the protection of civilians".
The aid group has called for deliveries to be tied to human rights commitments and for the arms to be tracked after they are handed over.
Other experts see the task of following arms through conflict zones as all but impossible.
"It's an illusion to think that in a context of war you can actually have control of weapons there. We know that many weapons will not return to the official forces but they will remain in the region for many years," said Nils Duquet.
"Look at Yugoslavia, success has been made but these weapons are still being smuggled in all parts of Europe," he added, predicting similar outcomes for Ukraine.
One senior French military officer evoked a lurid possible outcome.
"We'll be laughing on the other side of our faces once we're seeing bank robberies with Javelins," he said, referring to the US-made anti-tank missiles.
Paris (AFP) – Western countries have been ramping up weapons and ammunition shipments to Ukraine as Kyiv fights off a Russian invasion, but arms trade experts warn some of the lethal assistance could end up falling into the wrong hands.
Ukraine in particular has a history as a hub of the arms trade during the 1990s, setting off alarm bells for those who study illicit flows.
...
"While the response to provide more weapons to Ukraine is understandable..., it would be prudent to consider the immediate and long-term security implications," the US-based Stimson Center think-tank said in March.
"We’ve seen time and time again how arms aimed at aiding an ally in one conflict have found their way to the frontlines of unforeseen battlefields, often in the hands of groups at odds with US interests or those of civilians," it added, pointing especially to small arms.
...
Annie Shiel of the Center for Civilians in Conflict (Civic) warned that "there has been very little transparency around what risk mitigation or monitoring steps the US and other countries sending weapons to Ukraine have taken, if any... to ensure the protection of civilians".
The aid group has called for deliveries to be tied to human rights commitments and for the arms to be tracked after they are handed over.
Other experts see the task of following arms through conflict zones as all but impossible.
"It's an illusion to think that in a context of war you can actually have control of weapons there. We know that many weapons will not return to the official forces but they will remain in the region for many years," said Nils Duquet.
"Look at Yugoslavia, success has been made but these weapons are still being smuggled in all parts of Europe," he added, predicting similar outcomes for Ukraine.
One senior French military officer evoked a lurid possible outcome.
"We'll be laughing on the other side of our faces once we're seeing bank robberies with Javelins," he said, referring to the US-made anti-tank missiles.
Arms sent to Ukraine will end up in criminal hands, says Interpol chief
Weapons sent to Ukraine after Russia’s invasion in February will end up in the global hidden economy and in the hands of criminals, the head of Interpol has said.
Jürgen Stock says once the conflict ends, a wave of guns and heavy arms will flood the international market and he urged Interpol’s member states, especially those supplying weapons, to cooperate on arms tracing.
“Once the guns fall silent [in Ukraine], the illegal weapons will come. We know this from many other theatres of conflict. The criminals are even now, as we speak, focusing on them,” Stock said.
“Criminal groups try to exploit these chaotic situations and the availability of weapons, even those used by the military and including heavy weapons. These will be available on the criminal market and will create a challenge. No country or region can deal with it in isolation because these groups operate at a global level.”
He added: “We can expect an influx of weapons in Europe and beyond. We should be alarmed and we have to expect these weapons to be trafficked not only to neighbouring countries but to other continents.”
Weapons sent to Ukraine after Russia’s invasion in February will end up in the global hidden economy and in the hands of criminals, the head of Interpol has said.
Jürgen Stock says once the conflict ends, a wave of guns and heavy arms will flood the international market and he urged Interpol’s member states, especially those supplying weapons, to cooperate on arms tracing.
“Once the guns fall silent [in Ukraine], the illegal weapons will come. We know this from many other theatres of conflict. The criminals are even now, as we speak, focusing on them,” Stock said.
“Criminal groups try to exploit these chaotic situations and the availability of weapons, even those used by the military and including heavy weapons. These will be available on the criminal market and will create a challenge. No country or region can deal with it in isolation because these groups operate at a global level.”
He added: “We can expect an influx of weapons in Europe and beyond. We should be alarmed and we have to expect these weapons to be trafficked not only to neighbouring countries but to other continents.”
"On climate change, we are all in this together!"
Corporate jets to escape EU’s ‘green’ aviation fuel tax
...From 2023, the minimum tax rate for aviation fuel would start at zero and increase gradually over a 10-year period, until the full rate is imposed. The draft proposal did not specify what the final rate would be.
However, the minimum EU tax rate would not apply to cargo-only flights or to “pleasure flights” and “business aviation” – a term that covers executive jets.
Yachts To Be Exempt From EU's Carbon Pricing Plan
...According to the report, in July 2021, the European Commission published a set of proposals to decarbonize the maritime sector. However, what quietly not mentioned, is that the proposed carbon pricing scheme (ETS) and the low GHG fuel standard (FuelEU Maritime) will only apply to ships above 5,000 GT and exclude a number of ship types such as offshore vessels, fishing vessels and.... yachts.
Corporate jets to escape EU’s ‘green’ aviation fuel tax
...From 2023, the minimum tax rate for aviation fuel would start at zero and increase gradually over a 10-year period, until the full rate is imposed. The draft proposal did not specify what the final rate would be.
However, the minimum EU tax rate would not apply to cargo-only flights or to “pleasure flights” and “business aviation” – a term that covers executive jets.
Yachts To Be Exempt From EU's Carbon Pricing Plan
...According to the report, in July 2021, the European Commission published a set of proposals to decarbonize the maritime sector. However, what quietly not mentioned, is that the proposed carbon pricing scheme (ETS) and the low GHG fuel standard (FuelEU Maritime) will only apply to ships above 5,000 GT and exclude a number of ship types such as offshore vessels, fishing vessels and.... yachts.
华邮记者内战，女记者声讨男记者转发一条她认为歧视女性的推文，两边各有人声援，对轰之后华邮将男记者停职一个月。他转发的是这句玩笑话：
"Every girl is bi. You just have to figure out if it’s polar or sexual."
如果把女记者看作进步派的代表，把华邮官方看作传统自由派的代表，这场内战几乎是过去二十年来左翼内部文化斗争的缩影：进步派通过道德绑架将自由派拉向左边，后者无力抵抗，因为前者用来在公众面前胁迫他们的道德理由正是他们自己宣称赞同的。比如你说你支持女权，我告诉你believe all women才叫支持女权，你对这个界定的反驳不会比我的界定看上去更体面、更被相关的社会观众接受，因此你到头来得赞同我在该问题上的话事权。就像在此例中，标榜重视女员工的华邮如果解释说转发一句略微对女性不敬的话够不上misogyny, 它潜在的读者都会觉得这样不够体谅女性，很不得体，所以为了维护自身形象，华邮只能被女记者牵着走。
男记者本人以前也表达过cancel culture无所谓的想法，不值得同情。They deserve each other.
"Every girl is bi. You just have to figure out if it’s polar or sexual."
如果把女记者看作进步派的代表，把华邮官方看作传统自由派的代表，这场内战几乎是过去二十年来左翼内部文化斗争的缩影：进步派通过道德绑架将自由派拉向左边，后者无力抵抗，因为前者用来在公众面前胁迫他们的道德理由正是他们自己宣称赞同的。比如你说你支持女权，我告诉你believe all women才叫支持女权，你对这个界定的反驳不会比我的界定看上去更体面、更被相关的社会观众接受，因此你到头来得赞同我在该问题上的话事权。就像在此例中，标榜重视女员工的华邮如果解释说转发一句略微对女性不敬的话够不上misogyny, 它潜在的读者都会觉得这样不够体谅女性，很不得体，所以为了维护自身形象，华邮只能被女记者牵着走。
男记者本人以前也表达过cancel culture无所谓的想法，不值得同情。They deserve each other.
Hypotheses on the implications of the Ukraine-Russia war
...The notion of “spheres of influence” figured prominently in the U.S. debate about whether Russia ought to have been granted some say on NATO’s open-door policy, as it related to Ukraine and Georgia. Advocates of a “rules-based, liberal world order” condemn the idea that a great power has any say over the foreign or domestic policy of a neighboring small power, just because it is a great power. Small states must have agency, they aver. No spheres of influence would be conceded. This policy is unlikely to change, at least outwardly. Yet when the history is written, the unwillingness of the United States to consider, let alone concede, a sphere of influence to Russia will likely figure as an important contributing cause of this war.11
Presently, this view is banished to the margins of public discourse on the war, but it is likely that many key participants would, if privately pressed, accept it, if only in part. Open agreement on “spheres” is not likely to become a policy of the United States or its allies. But private understanding of “spheres of interest” may exert a subtle influence. This is especially true given what we have relearned about confrontation between nuclear powers. The U.S. has been chary of bringing its own military power to bear in this war because it retains a healthy fear of nuclear escalation. Nuclear confrontations are typically contests of will. It is simply the case that states care more about what happens in their side and back yards than do their opponents farther afield. We know that Russia cares more about the Donbas than we do, and that is one reason we don’t wish to fight them there. Statespersons may not wish to concede spheres of influence, but they will still need a set of policies that capture the connection between geography, interest, and nuclear deterrence.
...
The Ukraine war will provide a fillip to U.S. activism, as the Europeans seek inexpensive security insurance from the United States and U.S. policymakers succumb to the temptations of invitational hegemony, if only confined to certain regions. At the same time, the notion of a U.S.-led, rules-based, liberal world order is looking pretty threadbare. That intellectual construct was founded on a unipolar structure of power that no longer exists. Instead, we see the reemergence of the U.S.-led Cold War coalition. (That coalition is largely liberal, but often hypocritically tolerant of vicious authoritarians within its own ranks.) Even before the war in Ukraine, the United States hoped to resurrect said coalition and, despite its trans-Atlantic core, direct it at China. This seemed like it would have been very difficult. But Russia’s aggression has energized the Cold War coalition and stimulated its muscle memory, and China’s tacit support of Russia has alerted Europeans to the dangers China might pose. Though the coalition is getting back into shape tilting with a somewhat weakened Russia, this fight is still exercise. A counter-China tool is falling into the U.S. lap courtesy of Russia’s strategic overreach.
On the other side of the ledger, a weakened Russia aligned with China makes for a less imposing coalition than the pair presented just a few months ago. Chinese behavior may be a bit more judicious not only because it has “seen” what comes from bold bids for advantage, but also because its only major partner is weaker than it was. Wolf warrior diplomacy stems from many domestic sources, and a structural realist should be modest about the prospects of “socializing” China into more cautious behavior. Great powers do not always profit from the lessons offered them.
...The notion of “spheres of influence” figured prominently in the U.S. debate about whether Russia ought to have been granted some say on NATO’s open-door policy, as it related to Ukraine and Georgia. Advocates of a “rules-based, liberal world order” condemn the idea that a great power has any say over the foreign or domestic policy of a neighboring small power, just because it is a great power. Small states must have agency, they aver. No spheres of influence would be conceded. This policy is unlikely to change, at least outwardly. Yet when the history is written, the unwillingness of the United States to consider, let alone concede, a sphere of influence to Russia will likely figure as an important contributing cause of this war.11
Presently, this view is banished to the margins of public discourse on the war, but it is likely that many key participants would, if privately pressed, accept it, if only in part. Open agreement on “spheres” is not likely to become a policy of the United States or its allies. But private understanding of “spheres of interest” may exert a subtle influence. This is especially true given what we have relearned about confrontation between nuclear powers. The U.S. has been chary of bringing its own military power to bear in this war because it retains a healthy fear of nuclear escalation. Nuclear confrontations are typically contests of will. It is simply the case that states care more about what happens in their side and back yards than do their opponents farther afield. We know that Russia cares more about the Donbas than we do, and that is one reason we don’t wish to fight them there. Statespersons may not wish to concede spheres of influence, but they will still need a set of policies that capture the connection between geography, interest, and nuclear deterrence.
...
The Ukraine war will provide a fillip to U.S. activism, as the Europeans seek inexpensive security insurance from the United States and U.S. policymakers succumb to the temptations of invitational hegemony, if only confined to certain regions. At the same time, the notion of a U.S.-led, rules-based, liberal world order is looking pretty threadbare. That intellectual construct was founded on a unipolar structure of power that no longer exists. Instead, we see the reemergence of the U.S.-led Cold War coalition. (That coalition is largely liberal, but often hypocritically tolerant of vicious authoritarians within its own ranks.) Even before the war in Ukraine, the United States hoped to resurrect said coalition and, despite its trans-Atlantic core, direct it at China. This seemed like it would have been very difficult. But Russia’s aggression has energized the Cold War coalition and stimulated its muscle memory, and China’s tacit support of Russia has alerted Europeans to the dangers China might pose. Though the coalition is getting back into shape tilting with a somewhat weakened Russia, this fight is still exercise. A counter-China tool is falling into the U.S. lap courtesy of Russia’s strategic overreach.
On the other side of the ledger, a weakened Russia aligned with China makes for a less imposing coalition than the pair presented just a few months ago. Chinese behavior may be a bit more judicious not only because it has “seen” what comes from bold bids for advantage, but also because its only major partner is weaker than it was. Wolf warrior diplomacy stems from many domestic sources, and a structural realist should be modest about the prospects of “socializing” China into more cautious behavior. Great powers do not always profit from the lessons offered them.
Emma Ashford @EmmaMAshford
This is what a framing foreign policy in moral terms gets you: in exchange for getting to grandstand about values, you look like an idiot sometimes, and might undermine key interests at other times.
https://twitter.com/EmmaMAshford/status/1533915513042214914
Daniel Berman @DanielBerman2
It is typical for US Adminstrations to have problems with the Left or Right in Latin America, usually with the Left. It is odd to have poor relations with practically everyone simultaneously. Very similar to the situation in the Middle East where Turkey/RSA/Israel are all mad
https://twitter.com/DanielBerman2/status/1534279866459234304
This is what a framing foreign policy in moral terms gets you: in exchange for getting to grandstand about values, you look like an idiot sometimes, and might undermine key interests at other times.
Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins
The White House was asked how they reconcile not inviting Cuba, Nicaragua & Venezuela to the Summit of the Americas because "we don’t believe dictators should be invited" while simultaneously planning a trip for President Biden to Saudi Arabia, which he vowed to make a pariah.
https://twitter.com/EmmaMAshford/status/1533915513042214914
Daniel Berman @DanielBerman2
It is typical for US Adminstrations to have problems with the Left or Right in Latin America, usually with the Left. It is odd to have poor relations with practically everyone simultaneously. Very similar to the situation in the Middle East where Turkey/RSA/Israel are all mad
Richard N. Haass @RichardHaass
The Summit of the Americas looks to be a debacle, a diplomatic own goal. The US has no trade proposal, no immigration policy, & no infrastructure package. Instead, the focus is on who will & will not be there. Unclear is why we pressed for it to happen.
https://twitter.com/DanielBerman2/status/1534279866459234304
革命吞噬了自己的第一批儿女，新政的栋梁丹东啊，谁能想到你也有上断头台的一天？
Norwegian Feminist Facing Up To Three Years In Prison Over Tweets
A Norwegian feminist could be facing up to three years in prison for allegedly “hateful” tweets directed at a male who claims to be a lesbian woman.
Christina Ellingsen, a representative of feminist organization Women’s Declaration International (WDI) is being investigated under hate crime charges for tweets she made between February 2021 and January 2022.
The tweets in question were replies directed at Christine Marie Jentoft, a representative of trans activist group Foreningen FRI. Jentoft is a male who identifies as a lesbian woman.
Ellingsen’s charges are centered around her questioning why FRI promoted the belief that men could be lesbians. While police are still investigating, if she is found guilty, Ellingsen could face a prison sentence of up to three years.
Norway introduced “gender identity” into the hate crime paragraphs in January 2021. At the time, WDI Norway (formerly WHRC Norway) warned that the introduction of the concept into law would result in persecution of women for stating biological facts.
“Why [does] FRI teach young people that males can be lesbians? Isn’t that conversion therapy?” Ellingsen tweeted in October 2021.
A second tweet that has been cited as evidence of hate speech reads, “Jentoft, who is male and an advisor in FRI, presents himself as a lesbian – that’s how bonkers the organization which supposedly works to protect young lesbians’ interests is. How does it help young lesbians when males claim to be lesbian, too?”
Ellingsen was recently accused by Amnesty International Norway of harassing Jentoft after telling him on national television that he was male.
Norwegian Feminist Facing Up To Three Years In Prison Over Tweets
A Norwegian feminist could be facing up to three years in prison for allegedly “hateful” tweets directed at a male who claims to be a lesbian woman.
Christina Ellingsen, a representative of feminist organization Women’s Declaration International (WDI) is being investigated under hate crime charges for tweets she made between February 2021 and January 2022.
The tweets in question were replies directed at Christine Marie Jentoft, a representative of trans activist group Foreningen FRI. Jentoft is a male who identifies as a lesbian woman.
Ellingsen’s charges are centered around her questioning why FRI promoted the belief that men could be lesbians. While police are still investigating, if she is found guilty, Ellingsen could face a prison sentence of up to three years.
Norway introduced “gender identity” into the hate crime paragraphs in January 2021. At the time, WDI Norway (formerly WHRC Norway) warned that the introduction of the concept into law would result in persecution of women for stating biological facts.
“Why [does] FRI teach young people that males can be lesbians? Isn’t that conversion therapy?” Ellingsen tweeted in October 2021.
A second tweet that has been cited as evidence of hate speech reads, “Jentoft, who is male and an advisor in FRI, presents himself as a lesbian – that’s how bonkers the organization which supposedly works to protect young lesbians’ interests is. How does it help young lesbians when males claim to be lesbian, too?”
Ellingsen was recently accused by Amnesty International Norway of harassing Jentoft after telling him on national television that he was male.
几年前美国的丹东们跑到反革命大本营Heritage Foundation哭诉罗伯斯庇尔们搞得太过分：
The Inequality of the Equality Act: Concerns from the Left
Who could be against a law that promises equality and bans discrimination? ... People who have transitioned, and then detransitioned, concerned with what this ideology will do to children. Lesbians who have been punished for having the audacity to say that men are not women. Radical feminists concerned that nearly all sex-segregated spaces, colleges, sports, dormitories, and women's rights in general will disappear if “gender identity” becomes a protected class and the dangers this poses to women and girls.
Intro: 00:00
The Inequality of The Equality Act: 0:07:41
Former Transgender Activist on Transitioning: 0:21:10
Lesbian Feminist on The Equality Act: 0:35:05
Radical Feminist: The Equality Act Would Hurt Women: 0:44:34
Q&A: 0:55:08
The Inequality of the Equality Act: Concerns from the Left
Who could be against a law that promises equality and bans discrimination? ... People who have transitioned, and then detransitioned, concerned with what this ideology will do to children. Lesbians who have been punished for having the audacity to say that men are not women. Radical feminists concerned that nearly all sex-segregated spaces, colleges, sports, dormitories, and women's rights in general will disappear if “gender identity” becomes a protected class and the dangers this poses to women and girls.
Intro: 00:00
The Inequality of The Equality Act: 0:07:41
Former Transgender Activist on Transitioning: 0:21:10
Lesbian Feminist on The Equality Act: 0:35:05
Radical Feminist: The Equality Act Would Hurt Women: 0:44:34
Q&A: 0:55:08
Camille Paglia是我很欣赏的女权主义者，她在15年reason杂志访问中表现出的诚实和自知，我至今还有印象：
reason: Would you agree that there's been a massive proliferation of legitimate cultural identities out there? Is that a good thing or a bad thing, and what's driving that move forward?
Paglia: At first, I was very excited about the ethnic identity movement, because I feel very Italian-American and have always been in revolt against the WASP style that dominated academe—Leslie Fiedler himself was a victim of this, Harold Bloom was—there weren't any Jews hired in the Yale English department in the mid-1950s, there were quotas on Jewish students admitted to Harvard, all things like that. But over time, what's happened, I think, is that gender identity has become really almost fascist. It's to me a very shrunk and miniaturized way of perceiving your position in the world and in the universe.
There [comes] a time when these fine gradations of gender identity—I'm a male trans doing this, etc.—this is a symbol of decadence, I'm sorry. Sexual Personae talks about this: That was in fact the inspiration for it, was that my overview of history and my noticing that in late phases, you all of a sudden get a proliferation of homosexuality, of sadomasochism, or gendered games, impersonations and masks, and so on. I think we're in a really kind of late phase of culture.
reason: So that the proliferation of cultural identities, the proliferation of all sorts of possibilities is actually a sign that we're…
Paglia: On the verge of collapse? Yes! Western culture is in decline. There's absolutely no doubt about it, in my view, looking at the history of Egypt, of Babylon, of Byzantium, and so on. And so what's happening is everyone's so busy-busy-busy with themselves, with this narcissistic sense of who they are in terms of sexual orientation or gender, and this intense gender consciousness, woman consciousness at the same time, and meanwhile…
reason: Is that also racial or ethnic consciousness as well?
Paglia: Right now, to me, the real obsessions have to do with gender orientation. Although I think there's been this flare-up [regarding race]. I voted for Obama, but I've been disappointed. I think we had hoped that he would inaugurate a period of racial harmony, and I think the situation has actually become even worse over recent years. It seems to be overt inflammatory actions by the administration to pit the races against each other, so I think there's a lot of damage that needs to be healed.
But I think most of the problems as I perceive them in my students and so on, is that there's this new obsession with where you are on this wide gender spectrum. That view of gender seems to me to be unrealistic because it's so divorced from any biological referent. I do believe in biology, and I say in the first paragraph of Sexual Personae that sexuality is an intricate intersection of nature and culture. But what's happened now is that the way the universities are teaching, it's nothing but culture, and nothing's from biology. It's madness! It's a form of madness, because women who want to marry and have children are going to have to encounter their own hormonal realities at a certain point.
reason: Do you see your personal liberation as having helped to grease the skids for decadence, for the collapse of Western civilization?
Paglia: I have, yes.
reason: Would you agree that there's been a massive proliferation of legitimate cultural identities out there? Is that a good thing or a bad thing, and what's driving that move forward?
Paglia: At first, I was very excited about the ethnic identity movement, because I feel very Italian-American and have always been in revolt against the WASP style that dominated academe—Leslie Fiedler himself was a victim of this, Harold Bloom was—there weren't any Jews hired in the Yale English department in the mid-1950s, there were quotas on Jewish students admitted to Harvard, all things like that. But over time, what's happened, I think, is that gender identity has become really almost fascist. It's to me a very shrunk and miniaturized way of perceiving your position in the world and in the universe.
There [comes] a time when these fine gradations of gender identity—I'm a male trans doing this, etc.—this is a symbol of decadence, I'm sorry. Sexual Personae talks about this: That was in fact the inspiration for it, was that my overview of history and my noticing that in late phases, you all of a sudden get a proliferation of homosexuality, of sadomasochism, or gendered games, impersonations and masks, and so on. I think we're in a really kind of late phase of culture.
reason: So that the proliferation of cultural identities, the proliferation of all sorts of possibilities is actually a sign that we're…
Paglia: On the verge of collapse? Yes! Western culture is in decline. There's absolutely no doubt about it, in my view, looking at the history of Egypt, of Babylon, of Byzantium, and so on. And so what's happening is everyone's so busy-busy-busy with themselves, with this narcissistic sense of who they are in terms of sexual orientation or gender, and this intense gender consciousness, woman consciousness at the same time, and meanwhile…
reason: Is that also racial or ethnic consciousness as well?
Paglia: Right now, to me, the real obsessions have to do with gender orientation. Although I think there's been this flare-up [regarding race]. I voted for Obama, but I've been disappointed. I think we had hoped that he would inaugurate a period of racial harmony, and I think the situation has actually become even worse over recent years. It seems to be overt inflammatory actions by the administration to pit the races against each other, so I think there's a lot of damage that needs to be healed.
But I think most of the problems as I perceive them in my students and so on, is that there's this new obsession with where you are on this wide gender spectrum. That view of gender seems to me to be unrealistic because it's so divorced from any biological referent. I do believe in biology, and I say in the first paragraph of Sexual Personae that sexuality is an intricate intersection of nature and culture. But what's happened now is that the way the universities are teaching, it's nothing but culture, and nothing's from biology. It's madness! It's a form of madness, because women who want to marry and have children are going to have to encounter their own hormonal realities at a certain point.
reason: Do you see your personal liberation as having helped to grease the skids for decadence, for the collapse of Western civilization?
Paglia: I have, yes.
>>革命吞噬了自己的第一批儿女，新政的栋梁丹东啊，谁能想到你也有上断头台的一天？A Norwegian ...
>>几年前美国的丹东们跑到反革命大本营Heritage Foundation哭诉罗伯斯庇尔们搞得太过分：...
These are the sweetest moments of euphoria I get from watching the drama of real life, which to me is also the proof that Destiny has a no-joking-around sense of humour.
Now I can claim watching them will be a lifelong addiction which I could not possibly giving up and still living an ideal life in accordance to my own vision.
Anyway, that will not stop them, so much as Paglia(s) may wish.
---------------------------------
During past few years, trying to explain this sort of behaviour and from which such ironical destiny inevitably follow, on the 'personal motive' aspect, only one conclusion ultimately come up to me: that deep within the heart of the progressive/left only Death is the viable Love they want most or truly think that is attainable. So they absolutely WANT Death/Love to everything, consciously or not, no matter how that could be done.
Period.
>>Camille Paglia是我很欣赏的女权主义者，她在中表现出的诚实和自知，我至今还有印象：rea...
Good sense of reality might shine at an odd moment.
Yet, that does NOT mean anyone with such good sense or sound judgement will listen to their own rationality, or wit, and act accordingly.
Their intelligence may tell them to stop and retreat, whilst their heart yelling: Screw It! It's SO MUCH fun!
To fall, is so much an extreme ecstasy (up-to-eleven probably) that seems no mortal could effectively resist. Not without deliberate help from God, or gods, if you prefer a more 'culturally equal' term.
How San Francisco Became a Failed City
...The anger directed at Chesa Boudin probably could have been contained. The petty crime was frustrating, but it wasn’t what lit the city up for revolution. The housing crush is miserable, but it’s been that way for more than a decade now. The spark that lit this all on fire was the school board. And the population ready to rage was San Francisco’s parents.
...
...the board voted to replace the rigorous test that screened applicants for Lowell, San Francisco’s most competitive high school, with a lottery system. López had explained it this way: “Grades and standardized test scores are automatic barriers for students outside of white and Asian communities.” She said they “have shown to be one of the most effective racist policies, considering they’re used to attempt to measure aptitude and intelligence. So the fact that Lowell uses this merit-based system as a step in applying is inherently racist.”
Collins echoed that: “‘Merit’ is an inherently racist construct designed and centered on white supremacist framing.”
...
Gabriela López must have thought that history was on her side. Boudin, too. But things are turning out differently. If there was a tipping point in this story, it was when the city’s Asian American parents in particular got really, really mad.
As Allison Collins’s profile rose during the pandemic, critics started looking through her old tweets. There were bad ones. In 2016, she had written: “Many Asian Americans believe they benefit from the ‘model minority’ BS. In fact many Asian American teachers, students and parents actively promote these myths. They use white supremacist thinking to assimilate and ‘get ahead.’”
She also complained about Asian Americans not speaking out enough about Trump: “Do they think they won’t be deported? Profiled? Beaten? Being a house n****r is still being a n****r. You’re still considered ‘the help.’”
The San Francisco Bay Area is 52 percent white, 6.7 percent Black, and 23.3 percent Asian. And many Asian San Franciscans were horrified by the tweets.
“Her comments deeply insulted my family and the entire Chinese community in San Francisco,” Kit Lam told me. Lam is an immigrant from Hong Kong with two children in public school. He works for the school district, in the enrollment department, though he just learned that his job will be eliminated next month. He said he knew what richer parents were doing during the pandemic because he saw the paperwork: They were pulling their kids out and sending them to private schools. Lam didn’t have that choice.
In April 2021, he started going on 1400 AM, the Bay Area’s Chinese-language radio station, to express his outrage. He spoke out against school closures and the decision to get rid of the admissions test for Lowell. Asian students have traditionally been overrepresented at Lowell; getting in is one of the best ways for high-achieving poor and middle-class kids in San Francisco to rise up the economic ladder.
Many people from his community agreed with him. They began gathering signatures and raising money for a campaign to recall Collins, López, and another progressive board member, Faauuga Moliga. Siva Raj, one of the recall organizers, told me that roughly half of those volunteering for the campaign spoke Chinese.
...
...And Mayor Breed is responding. She was elected during the Trump administration, like Boudin and the school board, and her approval numbers are also faltering. But she’s in a different mold. Breed is a canny politician who knows which way the wind is blowing, and is open to changing course depending on the results.
Just a few years ago, she had proudly embraced the “defund the police” movement; no longer. This spring, after the city’s gay-pride parade banned police officers from marching in uniform, Breed announced that out of solidarity, she wouldn’t march either.
I took a stroll with her back in February. She had just given a press conference on anti-Asian hate crimes outside a senior center in Chinatown. As in places like New York, the city had seen a spike in the reporting of hate crimes against Asians.
...The anger directed at Chesa Boudin probably could have been contained. The petty crime was frustrating, but it wasn’t what lit the city up for revolution. The housing crush is miserable, but it’s been that way for more than a decade now. The spark that lit this all on fire was the school board. And the population ready to rage was San Francisco’s parents.
...
...the board voted to replace the rigorous test that screened applicants for Lowell, San Francisco’s most competitive high school, with a lottery system. López had explained it this way: “Grades and standardized test scores are automatic barriers for students outside of white and Asian communities.” She said they “have shown to be one of the most effective racist policies, considering they’re used to attempt to measure aptitude and intelligence. So the fact that Lowell uses this merit-based system as a step in applying is inherently racist.”
Collins echoed that: “‘Merit’ is an inherently racist construct designed and centered on white supremacist framing.”
...
Gabriela López must have thought that history was on her side. Boudin, too. But things are turning out differently. If there was a tipping point in this story, it was when the city’s Asian American parents in particular got really, really mad.
As Allison Collins’s profile rose during the pandemic, critics started looking through her old tweets. There were bad ones. In 2016, she had written: “Many Asian Americans believe they benefit from the ‘model minority’ BS. In fact many Asian American teachers, students and parents actively promote these myths. They use white supremacist thinking to assimilate and ‘get ahead.’”
She also complained about Asian Americans not speaking out enough about Trump: “Do they think they won’t be deported? Profiled? Beaten? Being a house n****r is still being a n****r. You’re still considered ‘the help.’”
The San Francisco Bay Area is 52 percent white, 6.7 percent Black, and 23.3 percent Asian. And many Asian San Franciscans were horrified by the tweets.
“Her comments deeply insulted my family and the entire Chinese community in San Francisco,” Kit Lam told me. Lam is an immigrant from Hong Kong with two children in public school. He works for the school district, in the enrollment department, though he just learned that his job will be eliminated next month. He said he knew what richer parents were doing during the pandemic because he saw the paperwork: They were pulling their kids out and sending them to private schools. Lam didn’t have that choice.
In April 2021, he started going on 1400 AM, the Bay Area’s Chinese-language radio station, to express his outrage. He spoke out against school closures and the decision to get rid of the admissions test for Lowell. Asian students have traditionally been overrepresented at Lowell; getting in is one of the best ways for high-achieving poor and middle-class kids in San Francisco to rise up the economic ladder.
Many people from his community agreed with him. They began gathering signatures and raising money for a campaign to recall Collins, López, and another progressive board member, Faauuga Moliga. Siva Raj, one of the recall organizers, told me that roughly half of those volunteering for the campaign spoke Chinese.
...
...And Mayor Breed is responding. She was elected during the Trump administration, like Boudin and the school board, and her approval numbers are also faltering. But she’s in a different mold. Breed is a canny politician who knows which way the wind is blowing, and is open to changing course depending on the results.
Just a few years ago, she had proudly embraced the “defund the police” movement; no longer. This spring, after the city’s gay-pride parade banned police officers from marching in uniform, Breed announced that out of solidarity, she wouldn’t march either.
I took a stroll with her back in February. She had just given a press conference on anti-Asian hate crimes outside a senior center in Chinatown. As in places like New York, the city had seen a spike in the reporting of hate crimes against Asians.
Ousted D.A. Chesa Boudin Backed by Pro-Communist China Group, Opposed by Chinese-Americans
Ousted San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin, who was recalled by voters on Tuesday, benefited from spending linked to a pro-Communist China organization — and was also opposed by a network of Chinese-American voters.
Campaign finance disclosures reveal that Boudin received $230,000 from a group called the Center for Empowered Politics. That group, in turn, is described by InfluenceWatch as “a lobbying and advocacy organization for the San Francisco-based Chinese Progressive Association (CPA).” As Breitbart News has previously reported, the CPA was founded to support the People’s Republic of China, the communist mainland regime. It has become involved in radical politics in the San Francisco Bay Area, even sponsoring Black Lives Matter projects.
However, the CPA remains on the fringe of the Chinese-American community in San Francisco, whose members have been at the forefront of a recent backlash by voters against the city’s left-wing policies.
For example, the community helped push for a successful recall of three San Francisco school board members earlier this year, partly in reaction to radical policies that saw merit-based admissions temporarily dropped for a local magnet school.
Ousted San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin, who was recalled by voters on Tuesday, benefited from spending linked to a pro-Communist China organization — and was also opposed by a network of Chinese-American voters.
Campaign finance disclosures reveal that Boudin received $230,000 from a group called the Center for Empowered Politics. That group, in turn, is described by InfluenceWatch as “a lobbying and advocacy organization for the San Francisco-based Chinese Progressive Association (CPA).” As Breitbart News has previously reported, the CPA was founded to support the People’s Republic of China, the communist mainland regime. It has become involved in radical politics in the San Francisco Bay Area, even sponsoring Black Lives Matter projects.
However, the CPA remains on the fringe of the Chinese-American community in San Francisco, whose members have been at the forefront of a recent backlash by voters against the city’s left-wing policies.
For example, the community helped push for a successful recall of three San Francisco school board members earlier this year, partly in reaction to radical policies that saw merit-based admissions temporarily dropped for a local magnet school.
Zaid Jilani @ZaidJilani
The story of the Chesa Boudin recall is closely tied to the recall of three school board members earlier this year. Largely Chinese American grassroots organizers were involved in both.
Much of the organizing and outreach was done on WeChat in Chinese language text messages and chat groups.
I covered a similar campaign in 2020, where a lot of 1st gen Chinese American immigrants worked to defeat the proposition that would've legalized racial preferences in college admissions and hiring. These orgs are certainly a growing force in Cali politics.
...
And yes, there was political spending on the race. But political spending comes when there's an underlying vulnerability, and the margin suggests the voter sentiment was there before money was spent. (Also true when these races go the other way).
A lot of races where one side has a sizable money advantage come down to single digits. An incumbent losing by 20 points....that's not a money issue.
...
https://twitter.com/ZaidJilani/status/1534383788909789184
The story of the Chesa Boudin recall is closely tied to the recall of three school board members earlier this year. Largely Chinese American grassroots organizers were involved in both.
Much of the organizing and outreach was done on WeChat in Chinese language text messages and chat groups.
I covered a similar campaign in 2020, where a lot of 1st gen Chinese American immigrants worked to defeat the proposition that would've legalized racial preferences in college admissions and hiring. These orgs are certainly a growing force in Cali politics.
...
And yes, there was political spending on the race. But political spending comes when there's an underlying vulnerability, and the margin suggests the voter sentiment was there before money was spent. (Also true when these races go the other way).
A lot of races where one side has a sizable money advantage come down to single digits. An incumbent losing by 20 points....that's not a money issue.
...
https://twitter.com/ZaidJilani/status/1534383788909789184
Poll: Asian Americans Driving Support for Recall of Progressive DA Chesa Boudin
Asian American voters appear to be driving the support for an upcoming recall of progressive San Francisco district attorney Chesa Boudin, who has been accused of emboldening criminals in the city by relaxing law enforcement and sentencing.
The initiative to put Boudin’s job on the ballot was most popular with Asian voters among all racial groups, according to the San Francisco Standard Voter Poll released Wednesday.
The poll found that 67 percent of Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) voters support the recall, in comparison to 52 percent of Hispanic voters, 51 percent of white voters, and 34 percent of Black voters.
...
Leanna Louie, an Asian-American who has protested against Boudin at multiple public events, told The Standard that the crime issue has been seriously neglected under his leadership.
“The Asian community has had enough,” Louie said in a statement. “Public safety should be Chesa Boudin’s highest priority, but it feels like he’s focused more on politics and optics than protecting us from the dangerous people on the street.”
Asian American voters appear to be driving the support for an upcoming recall of progressive San Francisco district attorney Chesa Boudin, who has been accused of emboldening criminals in the city by relaxing law enforcement and sentencing.
The initiative to put Boudin’s job on the ballot was most popular with Asian voters among all racial groups, according to the San Francisco Standard Voter Poll released Wednesday.
The poll found that 67 percent of Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) voters support the recall, in comparison to 52 percent of Hispanic voters, 51 percent of white voters, and 34 percent of Black voters.
...
Leanna Louie, an Asian-American who has protested against Boudin at multiple public events, told The Standard that the crime issue has been seriously neglected under his leadership.
“The Asian community has had enough,” Louie said in a statement. “Public safety should be Chesa Boudin’s highest priority, but it feels like he’s focused more on politics and optics than protecting us from the dangerous people on the street.”
Garry Tan 陈嘉兴 @garrytan
In SF, violent crime against Asian Americans is not merely low priority: it is used as a political tool
Recall Chesa Boudin. Yes on H.
We want criminal justice reform but this is dereliction of duty and pure incompetence.
https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1533830734896541698
Garry Tan 陈嘉兴 @garrytan
WE DID IT
https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1534398640805978113
Jonathan Choe Journalist @choeshow
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED: More than $7 mil spent to recall Chesa Boudin. Asian American venture capitalist @garrytan one of the principal architects behind this initiative. Like I said, national media better get on the back story of what really happened on the ground. #StopAsianHate
https://twitter.com/choeshow/status/1534443711706308609
In SF, violent crime against Asian Americans is not merely low priority: it is used as a political tool
Recall Chesa Boudin. Yes on H.
We want criminal justice reform but this is dereliction of duty and pure incompetence.
https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1533830734896541698
Garry Tan 陈嘉兴 @garrytan
WE DID IT
San Francisco Chronicle @sfchronicle
BREAKING: San Francisco removes Chesa Boudin in historic recall.
See live election results, including vote breakdown by district: https://trib.al/A9Qcntx
https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1534398640805978113
Jonathan Choe Journalist @choeshow
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED: More than $7 mil spent to recall Chesa Boudin. Asian American venture capitalist @garrytan one of the principal architects behind this initiative. Like I said, national media better get on the back story of what really happened on the ground. #StopAsianHate
Garry Tan 陈嘉兴 @garrytan
WE DID IT
https://twitter.com/choeshow/status/1534443711706308609
Mallory Moench @mallorymoench
Jade Tu, an outer Sunset native, has been up since 3:55 a.m volunteering. She never got involved in politics before but felt compelled as she saw attacks, some fatal, against Asian-Americans, and what she felt was as a lack of empathy and consequences from Boudin.
https://twitter.com/mallorymoench/status/1534375916582776832
Mallory Moench @mallorymoench
“I just want hard criminals to be prosecuted and those who deserve a second chance to get a second chance. When someone murders someone, they don’t deserve a second chance,” she said. “I care about my community and they are suffering because of policies. He needs to go.”
https://twitter.com/mallorymoench/status/1534375918709374986
Jade Tu, an outer Sunset native, has been up since 3:55 a.m volunteering. She never got involved in politics before but felt compelled as she saw attacks, some fatal, against Asian-Americans, and what she felt was as a lack of empathy and consequences from Boudin.
https://twitter.com/mallorymoench/status/1534375916582776832
Mallory Moench @mallorymoench
“I just want hard criminals to be prosecuted and those who deserve a second chance to get a second chance. When someone murders someone, they don’t deserve a second chance,” she said. “I care about my community and they are suffering because of policies. He needs to go.”
https://twitter.com/mallorymoench/status/1534375918709374986
美国亚裔不介意跟着左翼一起走，直到他们发现在最关注的教育和治安两个问题上，左翼不是他们的朋友——在教育资源的分配上，左翼甚至把他们视作潜在的敌人。
如果进一步透视在教育和治安上推动民主党继续极端化的左翼，其实推力的根源是黑人左翼。判罪从轻的治安政策所应对的现实是黑人以远高于其他族群的比例入狱，取消入学标准化测试等教育政策应对的现实是黑人在家庭环境和应试水平上不如他族。黑人是民主党笼络得最成功的群体，也是对他们的政策影响最大少数族群。然而不同族群的生态位、传统、价值取向、心态是不一样的，继续走黑左指给你的方向，相当一部分亚裔和拉丁裔就要抛弃你了。
如果进一步透视在教育和治安上推动民主党继续极端化的左翼，其实推力的根源是黑人左翼。判罪从轻的治安政策所应对的现实是黑人以远高于其他族群的比例入狱，取消入学标准化测试等教育政策应对的现实是黑人在家庭环境和应试水平上不如他族。黑人是民主党笼络得最成功的群体，也是对他们的政策影响最大少数族群。然而不同族群的生态位、传统、价值取向、心态是不一样的，继续走黑左指给你的方向，相当一部分亚裔和拉丁裔就要抛弃你了。
Daniel DePetris @DanDePetris
One of the most persistent claims by the “win in Ukraine at all costs” crowd is the notion that anyone with a different opinion is a morally bankrupt naïf who is cruelly pressuring Ukraine. It’s frivolous nonsense, detached from what is actually happening on the battlefield.
Put the righteous indignation and moral signaling to the side and ask yourself this very basic question: are you so certain that Russia can be pushed off every inch of Ukrainian territory that you’re willing to forgo a diplomatic settlement, which is how a lot of wars end?
I would also like the “win at all costs” crowd (curious how so many of them are located in DC) to be forthright about what they’re advocating here. In pursuit of total victory, the costs to Ukraine in both lives and economic damage would be be astronomical. Be honest about it.
In sum: let’s stop pretending fighting to the last Ukrainian is a serious policy proposal. At the very least, own up to the costs attached to this course of action.
https://twitter.com/DanDePetris/status/1534902025821032450
One of the most persistent claims by the “win in Ukraine at all costs” crowd is the notion that anyone with a different opinion is a morally bankrupt naïf who is cruelly pressuring Ukraine. It’s frivolous nonsense, detached from what is actually happening on the battlefield.
Put the righteous indignation and moral signaling to the side and ask yourself this very basic question: are you so certain that Russia can be pushed off every inch of Ukrainian territory that you’re willing to forgo a diplomatic settlement, which is how a lot of wars end?
I would also like the “win at all costs” crowd (curious how so many of them are located in DC) to be forthright about what they’re advocating here. In pursuit of total victory, the costs to Ukraine in both lives and economic damage would be be astronomical. Be honest about it.
In sum: let’s stop pretending fighting to the last Ukrainian is a serious policy proposal. At the very least, own up to the costs attached to this course of action.
https://twitter.com/DanDePetris/status/1534902025821032450
Less than 50% of Ukrainians see their children's future in Ukraine if the war lasts indefinitely — poll
Less than half of Ukrainians plan for the future of their children and grandchildren in Ukraine if the war lasts indefinitely, says the poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). It was conducted between May 13 and 18 at the request of CASE Ukraine, an independent NGO conducting economic research, analysis, and forecasting of macroeconomic policy.
The KIIS asked respondents the following question: Are you planning the future of your children or grandchildren in Ukraine under current war conditions? If you do not have children and grandchildren, imagine that you have them.
42.9% of respondents said they plan for the future of their children and grandchildren in Ukraine if the war continues indefinitely and the threat of constant bombing remains.
54.7% said they plan for their children's future in case of the armistice. If the war ends due to the change of power in Russia to a democratic one, 76.8% of citizens imagine the future of their children and grandchildren in Ukraine.
85.1% see the future of the next generations if Ukraine joins NATO or obtains stronger security guarantees; 84.5% can plan for the future if Russia surrenders or is disarmed.
Only 1.8% of respondents plan that their children and grandchildren will leave Ukraine under any circumstances.
According to the poll, in the eastern regions, the connection between danger and future planning in Ukraine is stronger than in the western regions. If the war continues, 34.8% of residents of eastern Ukraine plan the future of their children in Ukraine; in the south, the number is 38.8%; in central and northern regions of Ukraine — 44.6% and 48.5% in western Ukraine.
Less than half of Ukrainians plan for the future of their children and grandchildren in Ukraine if the war lasts indefinitely, says the poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). It was conducted between May 13 and 18 at the request of CASE Ukraine, an independent NGO conducting economic research, analysis, and forecasting of macroeconomic policy.
The KIIS asked respondents the following question: Are you planning the future of your children or grandchildren in Ukraine under current war conditions? If you do not have children and grandchildren, imagine that you have them.
42.9% of respondents said they plan for the future of their children and grandchildren in Ukraine if the war continues indefinitely and the threat of constant bombing remains.
54.7% said they plan for their children's future in case of the armistice. If the war ends due to the change of power in Russia to a democratic one, 76.8% of citizens imagine the future of their children and grandchildren in Ukraine.
85.1% see the future of the next generations if Ukraine joins NATO or obtains stronger security guarantees; 84.5% can plan for the future if Russia surrenders or is disarmed.
Only 1.8% of respondents plan that their children and grandchildren will leave Ukraine under any circumstances.
According to the poll, in the eastern regions, the connection between danger and future planning in Ukraine is stronger than in the western regions. If the war continues, 34.8% of residents of eastern Ukraine plan the future of their children in Ukraine; in the south, the number is 38.8%; in central and northern regions of Ukraine — 44.6% and 48.5% in western Ukraine.
U.S. Lacks a Clear Picture of Ukraine’s War Strategy, Officials Say
...despite the flow of all this news to the public, American intelligence agencies have less information than they would like about Ukraine’s operations and possess a far better picture of Russia’s military, its planned operations and its successes and failures, according to current and former officials.
Governments often withhold information from the public for operational security. But these information gaps within the U.S. government could make it more difficult for the Biden administration to decide how to target military aid as it sends billions of dollars in weapons to Ukraine.
...
The result, former officials said, has been some blind spots.
“How much do we really know about how Ukraine is doing?” said Beth Sanner, a former senior intelligence official. “Can you find a person who will tell you with confidence how many troops has Ukraine lost, how many pieces of equipment has Ukraine lost?”
...
But even in high level conversations with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or Lloyd J. Austin III, the secretary of defense, Ukrainian officials share only their strategic goals, not their detailed operational plans. Ukraine’s secrecy has forced U.S. military and intelligence officials to try and learn what they can from other countries operating in Ukraine, training sessions with Ukrainians and Mr. Zelensky’s public comments, American officials said.
Ukraine, the officials said, wants to present an image of strength, both to the public and to its close partners. The government does not want to share information that could suggest a weakening of resolve, or give the impression that they might not win. In essence, Ukrainian officials do not want to present information that might encourage the United States and its other Western partners to slow the flow of arms.
...despite the flow of all this news to the public, American intelligence agencies have less information than they would like about Ukraine’s operations and possess a far better picture of Russia’s military, its planned operations and its successes and failures, according to current and former officials.
Governments often withhold information from the public for operational security. But these information gaps within the U.S. government could make it more difficult for the Biden administration to decide how to target military aid as it sends billions of dollars in weapons to Ukraine.
...
The result, former officials said, has been some blind spots.
“How much do we really know about how Ukraine is doing?” said Beth Sanner, a former senior intelligence official. “Can you find a person who will tell you with confidence how many troops has Ukraine lost, how many pieces of equipment has Ukraine lost?”
...
But even in high level conversations with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or Lloyd J. Austin III, the secretary of defense, Ukrainian officials share only their strategic goals, not their detailed operational plans. Ukraine’s secrecy has forced U.S. military and intelligence officials to try and learn what they can from other countries operating in Ukraine, training sessions with Ukrainians and Mr. Zelensky’s public comments, American officials said.
Ukraine, the officials said, wants to present an image of strength, both to the public and to its close partners. The government does not want to share information that could suggest a weakening of resolve, or give the impression that they might not win. In essence, Ukrainian officials do not want to present information that might encourage the United States and its other Western partners to slow the flow of arms.
华邮记者Holden Foreman在斯坦福上学时写过一篇文章要求学校食堂进行改革，以解决他的“进食障碍”：
Stanford’s dining hall system did not work with my disordered eating. That can change.
...The specific type of disordered eating I experience has not been diagnosed, but it can be described as a compulsion to eat less than needed when I’m either in social settings or when I have trouble estimating the amount of food I’m consuming.
In theory, Stanford’s dining halls present students with the opportunity to eat as much as they need given its buffet format. Yet students like me may struggle to take enough of any of the available food when they are charged with portioning it themselves.
Disordered eating does not affect everyone in the same way. What helps me could make matters worse for others and vice versa. Still, there are basic actions the University could take to be more supportive of students who may not get enough food otherwise:
1. ... 2. ... 3. ...
这就是文明繁盛到腐烂的地方催生的典型末人：他们的身心如此敏感，以至于一些极其琐屑的周遭事物也会剥夺他们的舒适感受，他们的性情又如此放任，以至于认为社会改变规则来平息他们的不快是理所应当。
毫不奇怪，此人在华邮记者内战中支持为了一条转推向华邮发难的Felicia Somnez. Somnez在男记者受罚停职之后，一连几天继续公开声讨华邮的工作环境，领导层终于忍无可忍，将其开除。末人横行的地方是很难构建和维持共同体的。
Stanford’s dining hall system did not work with my disordered eating. That can change.
...The specific type of disordered eating I experience has not been diagnosed, but it can be described as a compulsion to eat less than needed when I’m either in social settings or when I have trouble estimating the amount of food I’m consuming.
In theory, Stanford’s dining halls present students with the opportunity to eat as much as they need given its buffet format. Yet students like me may struggle to take enough of any of the available food when they are charged with portioning it themselves.
Disordered eating does not affect everyone in the same way. What helps me could make matters worse for others and vice versa. Still, there are basic actions the University could take to be more supportive of students who may not get enough food otherwise:
1. ... 2. ... 3. ...
这就是文明繁盛到腐烂的地方催生的典型末人：他们的身心如此敏感，以至于一些极其琐屑的周遭事物也会剥夺他们的舒适感受，他们的性情又如此放任，以至于认为社会改变规则来平息他们的不快是理所应当。
毫不奇怪，此人在华邮记者内战中支持为了一条转推向华邮发难的Felicia Somnez. Somnez在男记者受罚停职之后，一连几天继续公开声讨华邮的工作环境，领导层终于忍无可忍，将其开除。末人横行的地方是很难构建和维持共同体的。
最新的Quinnipiac poll:
老头子在黑人中的支持率都不到一半了。只有两个群体对他的支持率过半：民主党人和有大学学位的白人。有大学学位的其他族群没调查。足见美国大学让年轻人在政治上更愚钝，更无法直面现实。
老头子在黑人中的支持率都不到一半了。只有两个群体对他的支持率过半：民主党人和有大学学位的白人。有大学学位的其他族群没调查。足见美国大学让年轻人在政治上更愚钝，更无法直面现实。
>>华邮记者Holden Foreman在斯坦福上学时写过一篇文章要求学校食堂进行改革，以解决他的“进食...
说 too dumb to live 也好，说 death hugger 也好，说 libtard 也好，总之这些家伙只能这么个样，放到任何位置都如此。
然而讽刺的是，这种只能在自毁的同时，又自恋到可以带着所有人一起去死的东西，出产条件只一种地方可以满足：人人寄望的幸福所在。
最近随着白左主子的新动作，黄左、黑左、褐左们也都开始活络。从主题到内容，从素材到修辞，用词到句式，其滑稽可笑之处，仿佛出自同一台复印机的同一个硒鼓。（在我这个观戏的看来是 one of the last moves，且不会有什么实效的那一类，现在真正有用的一招是「重兵集结于安克雷奇」）
左们的繁盛活跃，必为战争之世搭好舞台，偏偏战争舞台的落成，就是左们的集体谢幕上演之日。一些始终不想陷入疯狂混沌的人，到时候就不得不出来收拾疯子们自作孽不可活的烂摊子。容我先同情一下他们的辛苦，还有不得不在过程中出于各种无法拒绝的理由，献上自己鲜血的许许多多无名勇士。
----------------------------------
纵然可以自夸隔岸观火，享受自作自受者的悦耳凄惨，却看不尽过程中各种无辜受害，更无法理解其中之义，是为遗憾。
>>足见美国大学让年轻人在政治上更愚钝，更无法直面现实。
「民主党人」，特别是在传统上有着「自己人」含义的时候，就是指的「大学毕业生」。
没有美国的「进步」大学们，「进步」大师们，就不可能存在今天的民主党。不止美国，整个北美的社会学、文学、语言学、历史学、哲学，政治学、国际关系、经济学、公共管理、环保一类的交叉学科，都是「进步」的重灾区。
--------------------------------
别的方面还看不到结局，但那些「进步」的大学可以说是真真正正的已经完了。
就像我以前在品葱说过的，无论科系，它们只剩下为「维持（左）现状」而生产各种方便的意识形态和实用工具的功能。
这下也红脖了
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/6/9/n13756052.htm
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/6/9/n13756052.htm
Yoram Hazony @yhazony
The degradation of everything that took thousands of years to build didn’t start in 2017. It started decades earlier. It doesn’t help us to pretend this came out of nowhere.
https://twitter.com/yhazony/status/1535106573785305096
Pennsylvania Longknife @SEVomHofe
Replying to @yhazony
Eric can't do that, because it would lay bare the reality that he enabled it practically every step of the way.
In the end, he is a Progressive, and the 3rd rule of progressivism is "there shall be no self-awareness, reflection, or introspection."
https://twitter.com/SEVomHofe/status/1535108061626507264
Eric Weinstein的疑惑其实可以用列宁的一句话回复：There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. 他怀念的好日子其实就是他和他的朋友们为如今的坏光景铺路的日子。不明白自己究竟做了什么，才会觉得一切很sudden很mysterious.
The degradation of everything that took thousands of years to build didn’t start in 2017. It started decades earlier. It doesn’t help us to pretend this came out of nowhere.
Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein
Why are we all putting up with the sudden mysterious intellectual degradation of everything that took thousands of years toiling & suffering to build?
Over like an abrupt 5 year period 2017-22 of daily assault spread through media/tech/universities.
I just don’t buy the story.
https://twitter.com/yhazony/status/1535106573785305096
Pennsylvania Longknife @SEVomHofe
Replying to @yhazony
Eric can't do that, because it would lay bare the reality that he enabled it practically every step of the way.
In the end, he is a Progressive, and the 3rd rule of progressivism is "there shall be no self-awareness, reflection, or introspection."
https://twitter.com/SEVomHofe/status/1535108061626507264
Eric Weinstein的疑惑其实可以用列宁的一句话回复：There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. 他怀念的好日子其实就是他和他的朋友们为如今的坏光景铺路的日子。不明白自己究竟做了什么，才会觉得一切很sudden很mysterious.
Fox News也有这种把儿童变性常态化的报道：
California transgender teen, family hope to be an inspiration to others
这孩子被决定做手术时才5岁，他们一家子几年前在CNN被正面宣传。Fox拣选和宣传这个故事的主播是Dana Perino, GWB的白宫新闻发言人，实在不属意外。围绕在GWB身边的这群人在文化战中的角色正是他们善恶分明的外交观念中最鄙视的那一类人：对不共戴天的敌人也乞求妥协、共存的软蛋和白痴。
以下哪一类人和一个坚韧、繁荣的美国社会完全不可能共存：是千里之外的流氓政权，还是疆土之内的极端堕落分子？新保和右翼平民派对此有截然相反的回答。
California transgender teen, family hope to be an inspiration to others
这孩子被决定做手术时才5岁，他们一家子几年前在CNN被正面宣传。Fox拣选和宣传这个故事的主播是Dana Perino, GWB的白宫新闻发言人，实在不属意外。围绕在GWB身边的这群人在文化战中的角色正是他们善恶分明的外交观念中最鄙视的那一类人：对不共戴天的敌人也乞求妥协、共存的软蛋和白痴。
以下哪一类人和一个坚韧、繁荣的美国社会完全不可能共存：是千里之外的流氓政权，还是疆土之内的极端堕落分子？新保和右翼平民派对此有截然相反的回答。
这两天战争报道的新闻标题：
We’re almost out of ammunition and relying on western arms, says Ukraine (The Guardian)
Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russian forces, intelligence report reveals (The Independent)
Shortage of Artillery Ammo Saps Ukrainian Frontline Morale (NYT)
'In this war, the ordinary infantryman is nothing': Ukrainian soldiers in Donbas feel abandoned and outgunned (CBC)
Ukraine is running out of ammunition as prospects dim on the battlefield (WaPo)
Ukrainian casualties: Kyiv losing up to 200 troops a day - Zelensky aide (BBC)
Ukraine’s high casualty rate could bring war to tipping point (The Guardian)
More than three-quarters of Russians still support Putin’s Ukraine War (Atlantic Council)
We’re almost out of ammunition and relying on western arms, says Ukraine (The Guardian)
Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russian forces, intelligence report reveals (The Independent)
Shortage of Artillery Ammo Saps Ukrainian Frontline Morale (NYT)
'In this war, the ordinary infantryman is nothing': Ukrainian soldiers in Donbas feel abandoned and outgunned (CBC)
Ukraine is running out of ammunition as prospects dim on the battlefield (WaPo)
Ukrainian casualties: Kyiv losing up to 200 troops a day - Zelensky aide (BBC)
Ukraine’s high casualty rate could bring war to tipping point (The Guardian)
More than three-quarters of Russians still support Putin’s Ukraine War (Atlantic Council)
Whistleblower docs show disinfo board more domestically focused than originally portrayed
...Initial discussions and reports around the board’s purpose indicated its main focus would be disinformation coming from Russia, as well as misleading messaging from human smugglers about the U.S.-Mexico border intended to target migrants hoping to come to America.
However, internal DHS documents obtained by the two Senators show the board’s expected role was much more focused on narratives directly impacting Americans, than originally portrayed.
Among the documents was a memo to Secretary Mayorkas laying out proposed structures for the board. The memo also listed potential disinformation that poses “serious homeland security risks,” which included “conspiracy theories” regarding the validity and security of elections and “disinformation” pertaining to the origins and effects of COVID-19 vaccines and the efficacy of masks.
The list also touched on “domestic violent extremist groups,” and explicitly pointed to those questioning the 2020 election results and those involved in the events of January 6, 2021, as examples of bad actors who spread disinformation that puts the nation’s safety and security at risk.
Other portions of the whistleblower documents chronicle planned coordination with social media platform Twitter to discuss “public-private partnerships” for sharing information about disinformation and tracking analytics of Americans engaging in alleged misinformation. According to the documents a meeting between top DHS officials and top Twitter officials was planned for April, but it is unclear if the meeting ever took place.
============
'Deeply Shocking': Josh Hawley Reveals Whistleblower Information About Disinformation Board
...Initial discussions and reports around the board’s purpose indicated its main focus would be disinformation coming from Russia, as well as misleading messaging from human smugglers about the U.S.-Mexico border intended to target migrants hoping to come to America.
However, internal DHS documents obtained by the two Senators show the board’s expected role was much more focused on narratives directly impacting Americans, than originally portrayed.
Among the documents was a memo to Secretary Mayorkas laying out proposed structures for the board. The memo also listed potential disinformation that poses “serious homeland security risks,” which included “conspiracy theories” regarding the validity and security of elections and “disinformation” pertaining to the origins and effects of COVID-19 vaccines and the efficacy of masks.
The list also touched on “domestic violent extremist groups,” and explicitly pointed to those questioning the 2020 election results and those involved in the events of January 6, 2021, as examples of bad actors who spread disinformation that puts the nation’s safety and security at risk.
Other portions of the whistleblower documents chronicle planned coordination with social media platform Twitter to discuss “public-private partnerships” for sharing information about disinformation and tracking analytics of Americans engaging in alleged misinformation. According to the documents a meeting between top DHS officials and top Twitter officials was planned for April, but it is unclear if the meeting ever took place.
============
'Deeply Shocking': Josh Hawley Reveals Whistleblower Information About Disinformation Board
印度外务部长在斯洛伐克的访问视频节选，外交辞令的水准高于很多欧美同行：
Jaishankar Calls Out West Again, Questions 'Isn't Europe Funding The War?'
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s remarks at GLOBSEC 2022 Bratislava Forum have gone viral. The minister has been praised earlier too for his articulate and assertive replies regarding India’s position on various matters of foreign policy. In the course of defending India’s stance on Ukraine war, Jaishankar says: “Europe has to get out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems."
When the moderator asks him who India will side with - US or China - in case it has to pick a side, the minister added: “I don’t accept that India has to join either the US axis or China axis. We are one-fifth of the world’s population, fifth or sixth largest economy in the world…we are entitled to weigh our own side."
Jaishankar Calls Out West Again, Questions 'Isn't Europe Funding The War?'
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s remarks at GLOBSEC 2022 Bratislava Forum have gone viral. The minister has been praised earlier too for his articulate and assertive replies regarding India’s position on various matters of foreign policy. In the course of defending India’s stance on Ukraine war, Jaishankar says: “Europe has to get out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems."
When the moderator asks him who India will side with - US or China - in case it has to pick a side, the minister added: “I don’t accept that India has to join either the US axis or China axis. We are one-fifth of the world’s population, fifth or sixth largest economy in the world…we are entitled to weigh our own side."
该来的还是来了
https://youtu.be/vVPk5lRHQGc
https://youtu.be/vVPk5lRHQGc
喜迎各类价格上涨，佛州人民并表示情绪稳定everything is ok。
Miami-Dade County single-family median prices increased 13.1% year-over-year in March 2022, increasing from $491,250 to $540,000. Miami single-family median prices have risen for 124 consecutive months (10.33 years), the longest running-streak on record.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article255519916.html
https://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/z7zhr6/picture256264862/alternates/FREE_1140/IMG_4076.jpeg
https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-b796fc9a680c7793973d88253fe15628-lq
Miami-Dade County single-family median prices increased 13.1% year-over-year in March 2022, increasing from $491,250 to $540,000. Miami single-family median prices have risen for 124 consecutive months (10.33 years), the longest running-streak on record.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article255519916.html
https://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/z7zhr6/picture256264862/alternates/FREE_1140/IMG_4076.jpeg
https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-b796fc9a680c7793973d88253fe15628-lq
Ousted Ukrainian Official Breaks Silence, Admits She ‘Exaggerated’ About Mass Rapes by Russian Forces
A top Ukrainian official who was ousted over unsubstantiated claims that Russians were committing mass rape admitted she “exaggerated” but did so to convince the West to send more weapons to Ukraine.
Lyudmila Denisova, who had served as the Ukrainian Parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights, was recently removed by the Ukrainian Parliament over what they said were her false claims about mass rapes. The members of Parliament at the time said that her work focusing on alleged sexual assaults by Russian troops “couldn’t be confirmed with evidence … and distracted the global media from Ukraine’s real needs.”
Speaking to a Ukrainian news outlet, Denisova said that the information about rapes that she spread served her goal to obtain more military aid, confirming that “indeed, maybe I exaggerated” some of the rape claims. She did not elaborate.
“When, for example, I spoke in the Italian parliament at the Committee on International Affairs, I heard and saw such fatigue from Ukraine, you know? I talked about terrible things in order to somehow push them to make the decisions that Ukraine and the Ukrainian people need,” she said this week, according to a translation.
She added in the interview: “I conveyed everything that the applicants wanted to say to society and the world; that the enemies, the Russian Federation, be punished. Yes, then this vocabulary was very harsh, we discussed it … I said that, indeed, maybe I exaggerated. But I tried to achieve the goal of convincing the world to provide weapons and pressure [Russia].”
As an example, she said that an Italian political party, the Five Star Movement, was initially “against the provision of weapons to us, but after [Denisova’s] speech, one of the party leaders… said that they will support [Ukraine], including by the provision of weapons.”
Ukrainian Parliament member Pavlo Frolov had accused Denisova of pushing misinformation that “harmed Ukraine” in connection to her statements about “the numerous details of ‘unnatural sexual offenses’ and child sexual abuses in the occupied territories, which were unsupported by evidence.”
乌克兰政府里有不少出于宣传和求援的目的而满嘴跑火车的高官，除了Lyudmila Denisova之外，还有像Oleksiy Arestovych和Anton Gerashchenko这样的例子。NYT三天前的报道其实是一些美国官员借爆料来温和地批评基辅方面对盟友不坦诚。
A top Ukrainian official who was ousted over unsubstantiated claims that Russians were committing mass rape admitted she “exaggerated” but did so to convince the West to send more weapons to Ukraine.
Lyudmila Denisova, who had served as the Ukrainian Parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights, was recently removed by the Ukrainian Parliament over what they said were her false claims about mass rapes. The members of Parliament at the time said that her work focusing on alleged sexual assaults by Russian troops “couldn’t be confirmed with evidence … and distracted the global media from Ukraine’s real needs.”
Speaking to a Ukrainian news outlet, Denisova said that the information about rapes that she spread served her goal to obtain more military aid, confirming that “indeed, maybe I exaggerated” some of the rape claims. She did not elaborate.
“When, for example, I spoke in the Italian parliament at the Committee on International Affairs, I heard and saw such fatigue from Ukraine, you know? I talked about terrible things in order to somehow push them to make the decisions that Ukraine and the Ukrainian people need,” she said this week, according to a translation.
She added in the interview: “I conveyed everything that the applicants wanted to say to society and the world; that the enemies, the Russian Federation, be punished. Yes, then this vocabulary was very harsh, we discussed it … I said that, indeed, maybe I exaggerated. But I tried to achieve the goal of convincing the world to provide weapons and pressure [Russia].”
As an example, she said that an Italian political party, the Five Star Movement, was initially “against the provision of weapons to us, but after [Denisova’s] speech, one of the party leaders… said that they will support [Ukraine], including by the provision of weapons.”
Ukrainian Parliament member Pavlo Frolov had accused Denisova of pushing misinformation that “harmed Ukraine” in connection to her statements about “the numerous details of ‘unnatural sexual offenses’ and child sexual abuses in the occupied territories, which were unsupported by evidence.”
乌克兰政府里有不少出于宣传和求援的目的而满嘴跑火车的高官，除了Lyudmila Denisova之外，还有像Oleksiy Arestovych和Anton Gerashchenko这样的例子。NYT三天前的报道其实是一些美国官员借爆料来温和地批评基辅方面对盟友不坦诚。
自由国际秩序的扩展是有限度的，它在可见的未来止步的边界在这场战争中已经显明：
Biden Races to Expand Coalition Against Russia but Meets Resistance
...Now, with the conflict in its fourth month, U.S. officials are facing the disappointing reality that the powerful coalition of nations — stretching from North America across Europe and into East Asia — may not be enough to break the looming stalemate in Ukraine.
With growing urgency, the Biden administration is trying to coax or cajole countries that have declared themselves neutral in the conflict — including India, Brazil, Israel and the Gulf Arab states — to join the campaign of economic sanctions, military support and diplomatic pressure to further isolate Russia and bring a decisive end to the war. So far, few if any of them have been willing, despite their partnerships with Washington on other major security matters.
...
Russia’s currency, the ruble, cratered shortly after Mr. Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine in February. But it has since bounced back as Russia continues earning hard currency from exporting energy and other goods to many nations, including China, India, Brazil, Venezuela and Thailand.
For some countries, the decision of whether to align with the United States can have life-or-death consequences. Washington has warned drought-stricken African nations not to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine at a time when food prices are rising and possibly millions of people are starving.
“Key strategic middle powers such as India, Brazil and South Africa are consequently treading a very sharp line in an attempt to preserve their strategic autonomy and cannot be expected to simply sidle up to the U.S.,” said Michael John Williams, a professor of international relations at Syracuse University and a former adviser to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
“Washington believes this war will be won in the West,” Mr. Williams said, “but the Kremlin believes it will be won in the East and the Global South.”
Biden Races to Expand Coalition Against Russia but Meets Resistance
...Now, with the conflict in its fourth month, U.S. officials are facing the disappointing reality that the powerful coalition of nations — stretching from North America across Europe and into East Asia — may not be enough to break the looming stalemate in Ukraine.
With growing urgency, the Biden administration is trying to coax or cajole countries that have declared themselves neutral in the conflict — including India, Brazil, Israel and the Gulf Arab states — to join the campaign of economic sanctions, military support and diplomatic pressure to further isolate Russia and bring a decisive end to the war. So far, few if any of them have been willing, despite their partnerships with Washington on other major security matters.
...
Russia’s currency, the ruble, cratered shortly after Mr. Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine in February. But it has since bounced back as Russia continues earning hard currency from exporting energy and other goods to many nations, including China, India, Brazil, Venezuela and Thailand.
For some countries, the decision of whether to align with the United States can have life-or-death consequences. Washington has warned drought-stricken African nations not to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine at a time when food prices are rising and possibly millions of people are starving.
“Key strategic middle powers such as India, Brazil and South Africa are consequently treading a very sharp line in an attempt to preserve their strategic autonomy and cannot be expected to simply sidle up to the U.S.,” said Michael John Williams, a professor of international relations at Syracuse University and a former adviser to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
“Washington believes this war will be won in the West,” Mr. Williams said, “but the Kremlin believes it will be won in the East and the Global South.”
The U.S. Can’t Force the Rest of the World to Support Ukraine. Here’s Why.
...The United States and its allies see the moral and strategic stakes involved in the Ukraine war as straightforward: Ukraine is the victim of aggression, Russia the aggressor. At issue for them is not merely Ukraine’s independence, but also the democratic world’s willingness to defend the American-designed “rules-based international order” from Russian President Vladimir Putin — an unapologetic authoritarian.
But in much of the rest of the world, the moral fervor evident in the Western response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine has been noticeably absent. Instead, countries like India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey and Indonesia have remained largely non-committal — acting mostly to protect their economic and strategic interests.
...
There is an important lesson to be learned here: For many countries outside North America and Europe, picking sides in a confrontation between Russia and the West is a losing strategy whose costs significantly outweigh the benefits. What’s more, the United States cannot reasonably expect them to sacrifice important interests to defend global norms that Washington itself casts aside when it sees fit to do so. Painting countries that have not followed the West’s lead toward Russia as Putin sympathizers misses this larger context.
....
...Washington has a bad habit of assuming that, with the right amount of pressure or inducement, other states will eventually line up behind the U.S. as it tries to solve a problem, manage a crisis, or punish an aggressor.
But international politics is a far more complicated affair. How the world looks depends in large measure on where a specific country sits and what its interests are and how much of those interests it can reasonably sacrifice. This is true even in instances, such as Russia’s attack on Ukraine, where a wrong is easily discernible. The U.S. would be better served if it were to live in a world of reality — however frustrating that may be — rather than a world of make-believe, in which countries reliably follow the lead of American policymakers. Otherwise, the U.S. will set itself up for disappointment, frustration and potentially failure.
...The United States and its allies see the moral and strategic stakes involved in the Ukraine war as straightforward: Ukraine is the victim of aggression, Russia the aggressor. At issue for them is not merely Ukraine’s independence, but also the democratic world’s willingness to defend the American-designed “rules-based international order” from Russian President Vladimir Putin — an unapologetic authoritarian.
But in much of the rest of the world, the moral fervor evident in the Western response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine has been noticeably absent. Instead, countries like India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey and Indonesia have remained largely non-committal — acting mostly to protect their economic and strategic interests.
...
There is an important lesson to be learned here: For many countries outside North America and Europe, picking sides in a confrontation between Russia and the West is a losing strategy whose costs significantly outweigh the benefits. What’s more, the United States cannot reasonably expect them to sacrifice important interests to defend global norms that Washington itself casts aside when it sees fit to do so. Painting countries that have not followed the West’s lead toward Russia as Putin sympathizers misses this larger context.
....
...Washington has a bad habit of assuming that, with the right amount of pressure or inducement, other states will eventually line up behind the U.S. as it tries to solve a problem, manage a crisis, or punish an aggressor.
But international politics is a far more complicated affair. How the world looks depends in large measure on where a specific country sits and what its interests are and how much of those interests it can reasonably sacrifice. This is true even in instances, such as Russia’s attack on Ukraine, where a wrong is easily discernible. The U.S. would be better served if it were to live in a world of reality — however frustrating that may be — rather than a world of make-believe, in which countries reliably follow the lead of American policymakers. Otherwise, the U.S. will set itself up for disappointment, frustration and potentially failure.
如果俄罗斯在乌克兰得到可以接受的结果，这将是他们把战争编织进历史叙事的角度：
https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1535729570594406401
图片是俄罗斯外交部发布的。6月12日是俄联邦的国庆日，或者“俄罗斯独立日”。
https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1535729570594406401
图片是俄罗斯外交部发布的。6月12日是俄联邦的国庆日，或者“俄罗斯独立日”。
PayPal bans evolutionary biologist Colin Wright from their service
On Friday, the online financial service Paypal banned evolutionary biologist Colin Wright from using their service.
Wright posted PayPal's message on Twitter which read "You can no longer do business with PayPal." Wright had been using the service to receive both 1-time and recurring donations from his supporters.
Wright, who is also a managing editor at Quillette, has written about the biological reality of the sexes and has been critical of gender ideology and the transgenderism movement. His work has caused him to be the subject of targeted harassment in the past, including being added to the 'Transphobe finder' list in April of this year.
PayPal informed Wright that, "after a review, we have decided to permanently limit your account as there was a change in your business model or your business model was considered risky." PayPal did not specify any other details related to their decision ban Wright.
势力强大的非政府组织把少数人信奉的政治观念强加于所有人，惩罚所有挑战该观念的个体，这种政治迫害一定程度上在民主政体中也存在，它达到一定的强度和广度时，民主制的对社会的正面影响会受到严重局限，甚至被大体抵消。非政府专制主义的复兴是我们时代重要的政治看点。Paypal, Patreon和各大银行扮演的角色相当于当年的宗教裁判所，而其处理异端分子的手段虽不及后者残酷，但判决过程反不如后者透明。如果cashless society实现，他们可能像宗教裁判所一样掌握异端分子的生杀之权。
On Friday, the online financial service Paypal banned evolutionary biologist Colin Wright from using their service.
Wright posted PayPal's message on Twitter which read "You can no longer do business with PayPal." Wright had been using the service to receive both 1-time and recurring donations from his supporters.
Wright, who is also a managing editor at Quillette, has written about the biological reality of the sexes and has been critical of gender ideology and the transgenderism movement. His work has caused him to be the subject of targeted harassment in the past, including being added to the 'Transphobe finder' list in April of this year.
PayPal informed Wright that, "after a review, we have decided to permanently limit your account as there was a change in your business model or your business model was considered risky." PayPal did not specify any other details related to their decision ban Wright.
势力强大的非政府组织把少数人信奉的政治观念强加于所有人，惩罚所有挑战该观念的个体，这种政治迫害一定程度上在民主政体中也存在，它达到一定的强度和广度时，民主制的对社会的正面影响会受到严重局限，甚至被大体抵消。非政府专制主义的复兴是我们时代重要的政治看点。Paypal, Patreon和各大银行扮演的角色相当于当年的宗教裁判所，而其处理异端分子的手段虽不及后者残酷，但判决过程反不如后者透明。如果cashless society实现，他们可能像宗教裁判所一样掌握异端分子的生杀之权。
左人真的永远都意识不到他们宣扬的价值有多恶心
以前表示理解 现在表示好似
>>On Friday, the online financial service Paypal banned evolutionary biologist Colin Wright from using their service
Fresh & Nice, a human cuisine beautifully balanced according to the progressive values.
---------------------------------
但这又是一出自作孽不可活的丹东断头，既然宣扬进化，那么「跟不上社会进化」的自然而然要被淘汰，连抱怨都是在自己作贱自己坚持的价值，或者叫「永恒的真理」。
每一天都能有这种欣赏自作自受而产生的，不可抗拒的 Euphoria ，真是昔日（不到10年前）求都求不过来的幸福时光。而且我可以有把握地说，这种日子要长期持续下去。目前还看不到头。
意识形态对于文字的污染确实是很厉害 能让你生理反感到远离使用 我一直反感任何破坏规律的事情 只要你能够不违法不成为破坏规矩的人 每个人都有自己生活方式 我都不会反感 更不会低级趣味的歧视 21世纪了谁身边还没有形形色色的朋友呢 每个人都有自己的包容度 而且越来越妥协 最容易理解的事情往往却最难做到
有女同朋友是真好 爱认真打扮自己又一头长发 最爱看她们在ig发热吻了 就是彩虹旗有点影响观感
Live Monitor @amlivemon
No. Germany is the EU’s checkbook and France is the political/military arm. That’s not changing for decades.
https://twitter.com/amlivemon/status/1535621227531870214
Ralph Schoellhammer @Raphfel
I think this could be the biggest problem for the EU:
France and Germany remain the key players while many Eastern European countries envision an Anglo-financed Baltic-Polish-Ukrainian axis.
You cannot have both of these conditions within the EU on the long run - in my opinion.
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1535634026983313408
No. Germany is the EU’s checkbook and France is the political/military arm. That’s not changing for decades.
JustynaBracha-Rutkowska @BrachaRutkowska
"The defeat of the Russian military in Ukraine would pave the way for (...) shifting the center of gravity from the Franco-German tandem to a Central European constellation to include Germany, Poland, the Scandinavians, the Baltics and, most of all, Ukraine"
https://twitter.com/amlivemon/status/1535621227531870214
Ralph Schoellhammer @Raphfel
I think this could be the biggest problem for the EU:
France and Germany remain the key players while many Eastern European countries envision an Anglo-financed Baltic-Polish-Ukrainian axis.
You cannot have both of these conditions within the EU on the long run - in my opinion.
Live Monitor @amlivemon
No. Germany is the EU’s checkbook and France is the political/military arm. That’s not changing for decades.
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1535634026983313408
NEXTA @nexta_tv
The West has the right to give #Ukraine nuclear warheads to protect its independence, says MEP @sikorskiradek :
"#Russia has violated [the Budapest] memorandum and therefore the West can give Ukraine the opportunity to defend its independence".
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1535839743975510016
提出给乌克兰送核武器这种连Twitter上挂蓝黄旗的民小都觉得疯狂的建议的，again，不是边缘人物。Radosław Sikorski是波兰的前国防部长、前外交部长。也是Anne Applebaum的丈夫。
The West has the right to give #Ukraine nuclear warheads to protect its independence, says MEP @sikorskiradek :
"#Russia has violated [the Budapest] memorandum and therefore the West can give Ukraine the opportunity to defend its independence".
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1535839743975510016
提出给乌克兰送核武器这种连Twitter上挂蓝黄旗的民小都觉得疯狂的建议的，again，不是边缘人物。Radosław Sikorski是波兰的前国防部长、前外交部长。也是Anne Applebaum的丈夫。
‘They’re Wiping Us From Earth’: Evading Russian Artillery With a Ukrainian Military Unit
...A big part of the problem in defending this part of Donbas, Ostap believes, is that the people who have stayed behind — the people who haven’t fled — don’t really believe they are part of Ukraine. In his view, the civilians who remain are all separatist sympathizers. He says they help the Russians navigate backcountry roads that aren’t on the maps.
“Yeah, they’re all waiting for Russkiy mir,” Mace says, laughing when I ask his opinion about the locals. Russkiy mir, or “Russian world,” is the revanchist concept that Russia needs to restore its central role in the affairs of its neighbors, and its borders, to what they were at the height of the Soviet empire.
He asserts there have been instances of local collaborators getting caught providing information about Ukrainian troop movements or locations. Indeed, Slovyansk fell to Russian separatists in 2014: The retaking of the city by the Ukrainian military later that summer was the first major battle in Donbas.
“Almost everyone here is pro-Russian. But you can’t arrest people just for that,” Mace says. In any case, the police and the SBU —Ukraine’s internal security service — were doing what they could. “The SBU even arrested a couple of people in our brigade,” he says.
...A big part of the problem in defending this part of Donbas, Ostap believes, is that the people who have stayed behind — the people who haven’t fled — don’t really believe they are part of Ukraine. In his view, the civilians who remain are all separatist sympathizers. He says they help the Russians navigate backcountry roads that aren’t on the maps.
“Yeah, they’re all waiting for Russkiy mir,” Mace says, laughing when I ask his opinion about the locals. Russkiy mir, or “Russian world,” is the revanchist concept that Russia needs to restore its central role in the affairs of its neighbors, and its borders, to what they were at the height of the Soviet empire.
He asserts there have been instances of local collaborators getting caught providing information about Ukrainian troop movements or locations. Indeed, Slovyansk fell to Russian separatists in 2014: The retaking of the city by the Ukrainian military later that summer was the first major battle in Donbas.
“Almost everyone here is pro-Russian. But you can’t arrest people just for that,” Mace says. In any case, the police and the SBU —Ukraine’s internal security service — were doing what they could. “The SBU even arrested a couple of people in our brigade,” he says.
同性恋是因为先天的基因 很多人都是同只是小时候没发觉
恋童癖有良好教育 而且儿童色情犯罪大部分不是恋童癖 是可以接受的
神经病人们 what’s next ？
恋童癖有良好教育 而且儿童色情犯罪大部分不是恋童癖 是可以接受的
神经病人们 what’s next ？
何清涟在推特提到 Goldberg 的著作 Suicide of The West
Goldberg 的这本书我在以前就翻过，当时的感想是：「思想、见识、思维、理解能力，等等方面，远远不如1960年代，James Burnham 的同名著作」。
今天既然看到了自己的感想并非孤例，那么悬而未决的结论就可以下了：「作为灯塔的美国，大半个世纪以来，确实一直在走下坡路」。这两本书的时间跨度、见识高低、思维深度、对真实的把握，等等等等，形成了无法忽视的高低对比，且与时间的进步呈反比。
物质的丰盛，经济的成功，换来的是帝国的冉冉升起，代价是灵魂的堕落和精神的衰退。
但这也没有什么奇怪的，历史已经不止一次表明，人类的文明就是如此，人类的品质就是只能在痛苦和磨难中得以提升。今后不再是自由之世，而是帝国的荣耀占满世人视野的黄金时代。
最后的清醒者与敢言者的坚持，将为上一个时代画上彻底的句号。
-------------------------------------
另外一条值得注意的是，作为新保重镇（哪怕他说自己Neo-imperialist），Niall Ferguson 最近的文章也表明了这一阵营的态度和选择：与中国合作。
说话拐弯抹角，是文豪的基本特点。这一点和故事作家与说书人完全不同，因为后者明白，废话是没有观众的。
作为 Chimerica 概念的发明者，Niall Ferguson 的这种观点并不奇怪，倒是应该反过来肯定其一贯的坚持，哪怕现实在不断地发出「噪音」以示提醒。
他只有一点是对的，即美国的「国内政治主宰其外交政策」，但这种事情太常见，连总加速师也不能免俗。哪怕扭曲如苏联，疯狂如纳粹，自大如旧日本帝国，腐朽如奥斯曼，满清，乃至德川幕府，也都是一样。
这一篇文章真正让我觉得有点意外的，是我从来没有发现，所谓「明星学者」的历史和现实理解能力是如此地流于表面，只能看得到现象，完全不知道更不理解人的观念和选择。
起码在 Ascent of Money 一书中（也是 Chimerica 的出处），在涉及现实与技术层面的真实的时候，Ferguson 并没有显得如此肤浅。或者是因为本来概念就极其简单，让人无从比较。他也从来是一个概念讲厚厚一本书，对真正的明白人来说，看完第一章和结论，也就完全够了。真有兴趣，不如自己去翻 primary sources，但这是一个无比奢侈的个人爱好。
毛泽东的生存威胁，源自他为了自己的野心（白日梦）而抛弃了苏联，所以他可以和从来没有接触的西方进行接触，可以假装过去从来没有什么敌对，邓小平也可以顺着这条路一直走下去。这也是反苏联这个前提带来的唯一选择。
而习近平的生存威胁，源自他自己抛弃了「党的基础」，选择了「中华崛起」。而那「党的基础」真正的生存之根是在西方，「中华崛起」则意味着梁启超、孙中山一脉的「驱逐鞑虏」，是以「反」立足的道路。那么就和苏联的存在必须要反西方一样，反美成为「大中国主义」必须的逻辑前提。换句话说，习近平必须反美，才能在他自己建立起来的对外政治基础上立足，必须永远正确，永远伟大，才能在他自己建立起来的对内政治基础上立足。两者的结合，加上习近平真正信奉「大中国主义」的世界观和价值取向，其选择和行动的方向早已注定。（这种困境带来的唯一的「好」副作用是：如今的习近平，比任何人都更加需要台湾——不必解释，能理解的自然理解）
唯有完全不看「人在想什么」和「人正在做什么」的，才能够如同今天的 Niall Ferguson 一样，得出如此「铿锵有力」的断言，并且伴之以「行云流水」般的长篇大论。
而这，也反映出了美国的所谓「保守阵营」依然犹在梦中，而且不能免于总体上的理解与思维能力的衰退。
如果要问：对现实的认知脱离现实的时候会发生什么？
答案是「睁大眼睛自己看」，因为现在正是进行观察记录的白金窗口期。
------------------------------------
然后，我再看了一下 Niall Ferguson 的生活历程，特别是结婚的选择。
……难怪了
受托给約拿．哥德堡（Jonah Goldberg）《西方的自杀》中译本写序。看完前三章，才明白美国的保守主义有多弱，将国家本位（让美国伟大）归结于部落主义思维；对进步派的种种弊端认识其现象，但却认为这是部落主义造成，只有与部落主义相对的世界主义才能克服。
同意其中部分思考，但对这条完全不能同意
我将自己的想法写给总编，问：是否需要这样的序言？
Goldberg 的这本书我在以前就翻过，当时的感想是：「思想、见识、思维、理解能力，等等方面，远远不如1960年代，James Burnham 的同名著作」。
今天既然看到了自己的感想并非孤例，那么悬而未决的结论就可以下了：「作为灯塔的美国，大半个世纪以来，确实一直在走下坡路」。这两本书的时间跨度、见识高低、思维深度、对真实的把握，等等等等，形成了无法忽视的高低对比，且与时间的进步呈反比。
物质的丰盛，经济的成功，换来的是帝国的冉冉升起，代价是灵魂的堕落和精神的衰退。
但这也没有什么奇怪的，历史已经不止一次表明，人类的文明就是如此，人类的品质就是只能在痛苦和磨难中得以提升。今后不再是自由之世，而是帝国的荣耀占满世人视野的黄金时代。
最后的清醒者与敢言者的坚持，将为上一个时代画上彻底的句号。
-------------------------------------
另外一条值得注意的是，作为新保重镇（哪怕他说自己Neo-imperialist），Niall Ferguson 最近的文章也表明了这一阵营的态度和选择：与中国合作。
...Unable to win its war against North Vietnam, deeply divided over that and a host of other issues, the US was in no position to play hardball with the Soviet Union, as John Kennedy had and as Reagan would. Moreover, with a mounting inflation problem, the US economy was in no fit state to increase spending on defense.
....
First, Reagan ended up doing his own version of detente with Mikhail Gorbachev — involving more radical disarmament than Kissinger himself thought prudent! Second, detente in the 1970s made a good deal of sense at a time when the US was struggling with inflation, deep domestic division, and a war that grew steadily less popular the longer it lasted.
If that sounds familiar, then consider how detente might be helping Joe Biden today if, instead of talking tough on Taiwan in Tokyo, he had taken a trip to Beijing — fittingly, on the 50th anniversary of Nixon's trip there in 1972. He could have:
1. Ended the trade war with China.
2. Begun the process of ending the war in Ukraine with a little Chinese pressure on Putin.
3. Applied joint US-China pressure on the Arab oil producers to step up production in a serious way (last week’s announcement was unserious), instead of letting them play Washington and Beijing off against one another.
Would Xi Jinping take detente if Biden offered it? Like Mao in 1972, the Chinese leader is in enough of a mess himself that he might well. Zero Covid has become Xi’s version of the Cultural Revolution, a policy that is ultimately destabilizing China, whatever the original intent was. As for China’s international position, the decision to back Putin has surely weakened it.
Last week, for example, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi signally failed to persuade 10 countries in the Pacific to sign a regional agreement on trade and security. Mao’s problem in 1972 was that he had quarreled bitterly with Moscow. Half a century later, as Kissinger pointed out at Davos, Xi Jinping’s problem is that he is too close to Moscow for comfort.
Do I think detente stands a chance of being revived? No, I don’t, because I think the Biden administration is deeply committed to the containment of China as the keystone of its foreign policy. But it is worth remembering that their hawkishness had its origins in domestic politics. This time two years ago, Biden’s handlers decided he had to be tougher on China than Trump in order to win the presidency. Well, maybe they were right about that as a matter of electoral tactics. But does the same logic apply today, with a midterm shellacking fast approaching? I think not.
说话拐弯抹角，是文豪的基本特点。这一点和故事作家与说书人完全不同，因为后者明白，废话是没有观众的。
作为 Chimerica 概念的发明者，Niall Ferguson 的这种观点并不奇怪，倒是应该反过来肯定其一贯的坚持，哪怕现实在不断地发出「噪音」以示提醒。
他只有一点是对的，即美国的「国内政治主宰其外交政策」，但这种事情太常见，连总加速师也不能免俗。哪怕扭曲如苏联，疯狂如纳粹，自大如旧日本帝国，腐朽如奥斯曼，满清，乃至德川幕府，也都是一样。
这一篇文章真正让我觉得有点意外的，是我从来没有发现，所谓「明星学者」的历史和现实理解能力是如此地流于表面，只能看得到现象，完全不知道更不理解人的观念和选择。
起码在 Ascent of Money 一书中（也是 Chimerica 的出处），在涉及现实与技术层面的真实的时候，Ferguson 并没有显得如此肤浅。或者是因为本来概念就极其简单，让人无从比较。他也从来是一个概念讲厚厚一本书，对真正的明白人来说，看完第一章和结论，也就完全够了。真有兴趣，不如自己去翻 primary sources，但这是一个无比奢侈的个人爱好。
毛泽东的生存威胁，源自他为了自己的野心（白日梦）而抛弃了苏联，所以他可以和从来没有接触的西方进行接触，可以假装过去从来没有什么敌对，邓小平也可以顺着这条路一直走下去。这也是反苏联这个前提带来的唯一选择。
而习近平的生存威胁，源自他自己抛弃了「党的基础」，选择了「中华崛起」。而那「党的基础」真正的生存之根是在西方，「中华崛起」则意味着梁启超、孙中山一脉的「驱逐鞑虏」，是以「反」立足的道路。那么就和苏联的存在必须要反西方一样，反美成为「大中国主义」必须的逻辑前提。换句话说，习近平必须反美，才能在他自己建立起来的对外政治基础上立足，必须永远正确，永远伟大，才能在他自己建立起来的对内政治基础上立足。两者的结合，加上习近平真正信奉「大中国主义」的世界观和价值取向，其选择和行动的方向早已注定。（这种困境带来的唯一的「好」副作用是：如今的习近平，比任何人都更加需要台湾——不必解释，能理解的自然理解）
唯有完全不看「人在想什么」和「人正在做什么」的，才能够如同今天的 Niall Ferguson 一样，得出如此「铿锵有力」的断言，并且伴之以「行云流水」般的长篇大论。
而这，也反映出了美国的所谓「保守阵营」依然犹在梦中，而且不能免于总体上的理解与思维能力的衰退。
如果要问：对现实的认知脱离现实的时候会发生什么？
答案是「睁大眼睛自己看」，因为现在正是进行观察记录的白金窗口期。
------------------------------------
然后，我再看了一下 Niall Ferguson 的生活历程，特别是结婚的选择。
……难怪了
>> 何清涟在推特提到 Goldberg 的著作 Suicide of The West...
Jonah Goldberg是National Review主笔之一，与David French, Kevin Williamson同列。NR还有Bulwark这群人觉得自己在捍卫一套普遍主义+保守主义的制度安排，包括宪政原则，不同派别的基本共识，rule-based国际秩序。然而他们真正在捍卫的是自由主义的某个暂时受约束的模态：在本土是自由派暂不侵夺保守派发言空间的权力布局，在海外是略带现实主义因素的自由国际主义。他们被人铭记的历史形象就是他们在CNN和MSNBC频繁出镜时的形象：哀叹“正统”保守派势力渐微，抱怨进步派咄咄逼人，同时谴责右翼平民派的反击不守底线。他们的文字对其历史形象不会有什么贡献，这一代后就没人看了。
他们这两年一直在指责DeSantis在和CRT, woke capital斗争时太不择手段。最近DeSantis放话说要儿童保护机构阻挠带孩子去看drag show的家长，他们觉得是侵犯了parents rights. 这些人主导右翼的时候，保守派一输再输，现在有能力的人站上前线赢下两阵，他们又说你赢是因为你不讲武德。可是你的对手讲武德吗？看你威胁太大就封掉你的社交媒体账号、支付平台账号、银行账户，让你不但无法参战，甚至不能自保，这就是他们的武德。从NR文豪们的言行来看，你不得不认定他们的心态是这样：貌似体面的失败比通过血腥战斗赢得的胜利更可取。NR的文字以前有能力对共和党初选施加影响，现在被候选人纷纷忽略，原因是越来越多的人看清了他们是一群professional losers.
他们会继续丧失影响，继续左右横跳，继续喋喋不休，但世界对他们是仁慈的，因为那群被他们从背后插刀的人正在保卫他们的生存空间和言论空间。没有后者的血汗和牺牲，文豪们会飞快地迎来他们配得上的结局：
https://stonetoss.com/comic/use-it-or-lose-it/
Dr S Maitra @MrMaitra
I'd imagine it is also a bit difficult for the Biden admin to frame the narrative it as "we need to ensure that Ukraine's borders are inviolable and so we should spend 40 billion dollars" without the obvious pushback about the southern border. Hence, the democracy narrative.
https://twitter.com/MrMaitra/status/1536323577078853633
Dr S Maitra @MrMaitra
People forgot is that Minsk 2 was adopted BECAUSE Ukraine's previous attempt to conquer the East got routed after Debaltseve. Idea was eventual Eastern autonomy. Zel won election on a detente message, immediately got threatened by Azovs to ditch it, and here we are.
https://twitter.com/MrMaitra/status/1536340817916338176
I'd imagine it is also a bit difficult for the Biden admin to frame the narrative it as "we need to ensure that Ukraine's borders are inviolable and so we should spend 40 billion dollars" without the obvious pushback about the southern border. Hence, the democracy narrative.
Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim
Rather than unite the world in defense of Ukraine's sovereignty, Biden has framed Ukraine's cause as a "battle for democracy" and alienated countries that won't sign up for a permanent rivalry. Time to change tack. My thoughts in @TheAtlantic:
https://t.co/qqVTCbYXg6
https://twitter.com/MrMaitra/status/1536323577078853633
Dr S Maitra @MrMaitra
People forgot is that Minsk 2 was adopted BECAUSE Ukraine's previous attempt to conquer the East got routed after Debaltseve. Idea was eventual Eastern autonomy. Zel won election on a detente message, immediately got threatened by Azovs to ditch it, and here we are.
https://twitter.com/MrMaitra/status/1536340817916338176
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, yesterday:
"...We know that there is a very close link between what you can achieve at the negotiating table and your position at the battlefield. So our military support to [the Ukrainians] is a way to strengthen their hands at the negotiating table when they - hopefully soon - negotiate a peace agreement. Peace is possible, that's not the question anyway. The only question is: what price are you willing to pay for peace? How much territory, how much independence, how much sovereignty, how much freedom, how much democracy are we willing to sacrifice for peace?"
https://twitter.com/DrLuetke/status/1536084270258724866
"...We know that there is a very close link between what you can achieve at the negotiating table and your position at the battlefield. So our military support to [the Ukrainians] is a way to strengthen their hands at the negotiating table when they - hopefully soon - negotiate a peace agreement. Peace is possible, that's not the question anyway. The only question is: what price are you willing to pay for peace? How much territory, how much independence, how much sovereignty, how much freedom, how much democracy are we willing to sacrifice for peace?"
https://twitter.com/DrLuetke/status/1536084270258724866
乌克兰总统办公室顾问列出所需武器清单：
Михайло Подоляк @Podolyak_M
Being straightforward – to end the war we need heavy weapons parity:
1000 howitzers caliber 155 mm;
300 MLRS;
500 tanks;
2000 armored vehicles;
1000 drones.
Contact Group of Defense Ministers meeting is held in #Brussels on June 15. We are waiting for a decision.
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1536245024354144257
很多北约国家的反应大概会是：第一，要的太多，我们支援不起；第二，给你这么多你也不见得能赢。各国防长在布鲁塞尔的密室里难免要谈的话题是，是不是到了敦促基辅割地求和的时刻。
Михайло Подоляк @Podolyak_M
Being straightforward – to end the war we need heavy weapons parity:
1000 howitzers caliber 155 mm;
300 MLRS;
500 tanks;
2000 armored vehicles;
1000 drones.
Contact Group of Defense Ministers meeting is held in #Brussels on June 15. We are waiting for a decision.
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1536245024354144257
很多北约国家的反应大概会是：第一，要的太多，我们支援不起；第二，给你这么多你也不见得能赢。各国防长在布鲁塞尔的密室里难免要谈的话题是，是不是到了敦促基辅割地求和的时刻。
Young Dems more likely to despise the other party
Between the lines: Democrats argue that modern GOP positions, spearheaded by former President Trump — are far outside of the mainstream and polite conversation.
- Some have expressed unyielding positions on matters of identity — including abortion, LGBTQ rights and immigration — where they argue human rights, and not just policy differences, are at stake.
Women are more likely than men to take a strong partisan stance in their personal choices.
- 41% of women would go on a date with someone who voted for the opposing candidate, compared to 67% of men.
- 76% of women would work for someone who voted for the other candidate, vs. 86% of men.
- Just 68% of women — compared to 84% of men — would shop at or support the business of someone of the other party.
Between the lines: Democrats argue that modern GOP positions, spearheaded by former President Trump — are far outside of the mainstream and polite conversation.
- Some have expressed unyielding positions on matters of identity — including abortion, LGBTQ rights and immigration — where they argue human rights, and not just policy differences, are at stake.
Women are more likely than men to take a strong partisan stance in their personal choices.
- 41% of women would go on a date with someone who voted for the opposing candidate, compared to 67% of men.
- 76% of women would work for someone who voted for the other candidate, vs. 86% of men.
- Just 68% of women — compared to 84% of men — would shop at or support the business of someone of the other party.
没有约束的自诩正义后 紧接着就是残害他人
Lawmakers fret over dwindling Javelin supply (Apr 28, 2022)
Some members of Congress are calling for President Biden to invoke the Defense Production Act amid concern the diversion of Javelin anti-tank and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine could leave the U.S. itself militarily vulnerable.
Why it matters: The president is planning to visit a Lockheed Martin facility in Alabama that makes Javelins next Tuesday. Having a ready supply of such potent and proven weapons is seen as vital not only to Ukraine but to ensuring Taiwan is prepared for a potential Chinese invasion.
Driving the news: Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) warned of a potential Javelin shortage during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing this week.
- "The United States military has probably sent about one-third of its Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine — one-third of our supply given to them," Blumenthal said. "Replenishing U.S. stocks or those weapons would require 32 months."
- Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), a veteran and the committee chair, raised similar concerns: “We have a significant usage rate for the Stingers that we’re moving over there ― Javelins, also ― and we have to not only be able to help the Ukrainians, we have to maintain our stocks."
- Reed also emphasized "the lack of responsive and rapidly scalable production capacity" for these types of weapons reveals a greater problem. He said that related to "manufacturing flexibility for long-lead items needed in short order, with little to no advance warning."
- Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Axios: “We are facing a three-year backlog on delivering weapons to Taiwan, and our current arsenal is being depleted to provide vitally needed support for Ukraine and other allies and partners in Eastern Europe.”
Some members of Congress are calling for President Biden to invoke the Defense Production Act amid concern the diversion of Javelin anti-tank and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine could leave the U.S. itself militarily vulnerable.
Why it matters: The president is planning to visit a Lockheed Martin facility in Alabama that makes Javelins next Tuesday. Having a ready supply of such potent and proven weapons is seen as vital not only to Ukraine but to ensuring Taiwan is prepared for a potential Chinese invasion.
Driving the news: Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) warned of a potential Javelin shortage during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing this week.
- "The United States military has probably sent about one-third of its Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine — one-third of our supply given to them," Blumenthal said. "Replenishing U.S. stocks or those weapons would require 32 months."
- Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), a veteran and the committee chair, raised similar concerns: “We have a significant usage rate for the Stingers that we’re moving over there ― Javelins, also ― and we have to not only be able to help the Ukrainians, we have to maintain our stocks."
- Reed also emphasized "the lack of responsive and rapidly scalable production capacity" for these types of weapons reveals a greater problem. He said that related to "manufacturing flexibility for long-lead items needed in short order, with little to no advance warning."
- Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Axios: “We are facing a three-year backlog on delivering weapons to Taiwan, and our current arsenal is being depleted to provide vitally needed support for Ukraine and other allies and partners in Eastern Europe.”
Corporate ‘Self-Sanctioning’ of Russia Has US Fearing Economic Blowback
...some Biden administration officials are now privately expressing concern that rather than dissuading the Kremlin as intended, the penalties are instead exacerbating inflation, worsening food insecurity and punishing ordinary Russians more than Putin or his allies.
Officials were initially impressed by the willingness of companies from BP Plc. to McDonald’s Corp. to abruptly “self-sanction,” sometimes selling assets at fire-sale prices. But the administration was caught off-guard by the potential knock-on effects -- from supply chain bottlenecks to uninsurable grain exports -- due to the companies’ decisions to leave, according to people familiar with internal discussions.
...
...the collateral damage from the sanctions has been wider than expected.
When the invasion began, the Biden administration believed that if penalties exempted food and energy, the impact on inflation at home would be minimal. Since then, energy and food have become key drivers of the highest US inflation rates in 40 years, a huge political liability for President Joe Biden and the Democratic party heading into November’s mid-term elections.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that she "was wrong" in believing last year that inflationary pressures would pass. One of the results that she's now seeing is related to the spike in prices due to unexpected self-sanctioning, according to one person familiar with her thinking.
...
About 1,000 companies have so far announced that they are curtailing operations in Russia, according to data collected by the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute. That underscores one reason sanctions are so popular with policy makers: They essentially outsource US policy to the private sector, which makes it less surgical, less calibrated and less responsive to policy changes, said Smith, the former OFAC adviser.
This becomes important as all sides seek an end to the war. The lifting of sanctions can be dangled as an incentive to help bring about a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. But right now it’s hard even to offer that as a potential benefit of entering into negotiations because much of the pullout by American businesses has been self-inflicted. Companies could face public blowback if they are seen as rushing back into the Russian market.
...some Biden administration officials are now privately expressing concern that rather than dissuading the Kremlin as intended, the penalties are instead exacerbating inflation, worsening food insecurity and punishing ordinary Russians more than Putin or his allies.
Officials were initially impressed by the willingness of companies from BP Plc. to McDonald’s Corp. to abruptly “self-sanction,” sometimes selling assets at fire-sale prices. But the administration was caught off-guard by the potential knock-on effects -- from supply chain bottlenecks to uninsurable grain exports -- due to the companies’ decisions to leave, according to people familiar with internal discussions.
...
...the collateral damage from the sanctions has been wider than expected.
When the invasion began, the Biden administration believed that if penalties exempted food and energy, the impact on inflation at home would be minimal. Since then, energy and food have become key drivers of the highest US inflation rates in 40 years, a huge political liability for President Joe Biden and the Democratic party heading into November’s mid-term elections.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that she "was wrong" in believing last year that inflationary pressures would pass. One of the results that she's now seeing is related to the spike in prices due to unexpected self-sanctioning, according to one person familiar with her thinking.
...
About 1,000 companies have so far announced that they are curtailing operations in Russia, according to data collected by the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute. That underscores one reason sanctions are so popular with policy makers: They essentially outsource US policy to the private sector, which makes it less surgical, less calibrated and less responsive to policy changes, said Smith, the former OFAC adviser.
This becomes important as all sides seek an end to the war. The lifting of sanctions can be dangled as an incentive to help bring about a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. But right now it’s hard even to offer that as a potential benefit of entering into negotiations because much of the pullout by American businesses has been self-inflicted. Companies could face public blowback if they are seen as rushing back into the Russian market.
不妨把2014年起始、今后还要延续很长时间的西方对俄制裁看作对自由国际秩序的一个要件的测试，测试问题是：经济制裁作为威慑和惩戒手段是否对于维护秩序足够有效。
从目前的反馈看，两点已经可以确定：
一、制裁作为预防恶行的手段，效果有限：对于一个足够强大的政权，遭受制裁的前景并不能遏制他们采取破坏性行动，只要该政权及其大部分国民认定，值得为了该行动而承受程度难料的经济损失。政权和国民在衡量得失的时候并不必然是理性经济人，有一些目标，比如维护国家安全、民族统一会被视作超越经济利益的使命。
二、制裁作为中止正在实施的恶行的手段，效果同样有限：许多制裁需要数月甚至更长时间才能在对象身上产生可感后果，因此无法吓阻专注于当下行动得失的政权。以俄罗斯为例，目前卢布表现强劲，石油收入高涨，民众支持战争不动摇，普京没有收手的动机。此外，一旦受制裁方深深嵌入全球经济体系，制裁方同样要承受经济后果，后果可能反而先临到他们头上，而且范围超出预想。因此短期内可能产生一个尴尬的观感：制裁方伤人不成，反而害己。如此观感也许会在日后影响不同制裁者决策时的团结。
不确定的一点是，制裁作为长久孤立作恶者的手段效果如何。就俄罗斯一例而言，目前的预期是可以生效。实际情况要看将来。但即使生效，制裁导致的更多后果——比如俄国进一步集权，或者其崩溃导致欧亚大陆内乱——恐怕对制裁者并非利好。
假如“制裁不是好用的维护秩序的工具”这一点被时局发展证实并被广泛承认，自由国际秩序将遭受无法挽回的伤害，因为体系中一个不能补救的缺陷被暴露在了光天化日之下。但那不是该秩序在当下冲突中第一次无法挽回地受到创伤：贯彻《布达佩斯备忘录》的失败已经让大国的安全保证丧失了信用，类似的安保承诺只能从构建秩序的工具库中丢弃。
从目前的反馈看，两点已经可以确定：
一、制裁作为预防恶行的手段，效果有限：对于一个足够强大的政权，遭受制裁的前景并不能遏制他们采取破坏性行动，只要该政权及其大部分国民认定，值得为了该行动而承受程度难料的经济损失。政权和国民在衡量得失的时候并不必然是理性经济人，有一些目标，比如维护国家安全、民族统一会被视作超越经济利益的使命。
二、制裁作为中止正在实施的恶行的手段，效果同样有限：许多制裁需要数月甚至更长时间才能在对象身上产生可感后果，因此无法吓阻专注于当下行动得失的政权。以俄罗斯为例，目前卢布表现强劲，石油收入高涨，民众支持战争不动摇，普京没有收手的动机。此外，一旦受制裁方深深嵌入全球经济体系，制裁方同样要承受经济后果，后果可能反而先临到他们头上，而且范围超出预想。因此短期内可能产生一个尴尬的观感：制裁方伤人不成，反而害己。如此观感也许会在日后影响不同制裁者决策时的团结。
不确定的一点是，制裁作为长久孤立作恶者的手段效果如何。就俄罗斯一例而言，目前的预期是可以生效。实际情况要看将来。但即使生效，制裁导致的更多后果——比如俄国进一步集权，或者其崩溃导致欧亚大陆内乱——恐怕对制裁者并非利好。
假如“制裁不是好用的维护秩序的工具”这一点被时局发展证实并被广泛承认，自由国际秩序将遭受无法挽回的伤害，因为体系中一个不能补救的缺陷被暴露在了光天化日之下。但那不是该秩序在当下冲突中第一次无法挽回地受到创伤：贯彻《布达佩斯备忘录》的失败已经让大国的安全保证丧失了信用，类似的安保承诺只能从构建秩序的工具库中丢弃。
>>不妨把2014年起始、今后还要延续很长时间的西方对俄制裁看作对自由国际秩序的一个要件的测试，测试问题...
钱也好，枪也好，从来只是手段，不是目的。
在同一时间里，全球主义左派既把经济视为霸权的目的，又在厌恶军力且推崇和平主义的同时，把经济作为维持霸权的战争手段。这种自相矛盾的尴尬戏剧，正在现实中上演。用个「中国人」容易理解的比喻，那就是把「投鼠忌器」的「器」放进 155 的炮膛里打出去，同时还要真心地认为，这是对「器」最好的保护。因为「忌」的结果，导致没别的东西可以作为Ammunition，即泽连斯基从一开始到现在都最最需要的东西。
同样，既把军力视为手段，又把军力的强化视为「崛起」这种目的的具体指标，正好就是今天共产党的尴尬：无论如何必须加大表面上的军力扩张，当然也就不能够避免其一直想要避免的庞大开销。这种自相矛盾的结果，就是一再强化的军力，迟早要被用来「解决内部问题」（如今苗头已现）。而那些内部问题，很大一部分正是因为被军力扩张所吸走的财力资源。来一个半斤八两的比喻，那就是：为了确保吃不饱导致的饿死问题不构成生存威胁，就要认真确保饿死也不乱，为此必须统一思想，真心地认定只有把足够多的粮换成枪，才可让奴隶「不吃也不乱」，同时脑内自动忽略「派下去的枪越多，会导致持枪的，或者不怕枪的奴隶越多」的尴尬现实。
--------------------------------------
尽管事实上，人类文明源于各种各样的自由个人的理念和实践，是其积累而成。但在所谓的「现实主义者」看来，只有权力体系的建立和维护才是目的。他们看不到那些无形也无法理解的东西到底有什么价值。
这种因视野的缺陷而自我矛盾的思维模式，进一步导致了这类人往往把手段作为最高目的，而过程之中，「敌人的血和泪」，或者让敌人多流血和泪的己方潜力的强化，又往往成为这类目标不明者眼前能看得见的唯一目的。这样的短视和理解能力表面化的结果，就是把工具的地位抬高，同时忘记让自己倍感沉重的目标，还有自身前进方向的终点是不是已经看得到了。
>>钱也好，枪也好，从来只是手段，不是目的。在同一时间里，全球主义左派既把经济视为霸权的目的，又在厌恶军...
科学变成真理后 把所有解释不了的事物全扔进自然这个框里 就不用再去解释了 注定这代人只有这种接受能力和智慧 发现了真理也不敢去面对 自相矛盾的事再做个上千年感觉人都不会变
以下文章指出一点：一个降低标准允许乌克兰快速加入的欧盟将是一个不再有道德基础来训教华沙和布达佩斯的欧盟，因为各方都承认乌克兰的民主、法治状况不如波匈。这大概也是为什么奥尔班虽然不支援乌克兰，但也不反对其快速入欧，目前反对的是荷兰、丹麦、瑞典。
作者主张欧盟放弃一部分constitutionalism，接受内部成员价值的多元化。欧盟Constitutionalism的根底是liberalism和cosmopolitanism，在这些核心理念上做出妥协，就是承认自由主义和世界主义在现实中能够伸展的限度。
The EU’s future lies in its east
...the conflict between Warsaw and Brussels can’t be “won” by one side or the other — particularly in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Much like the concessions currently being hashed out by both parties, the only outcome can be a messy compromise.
Simply put, those who advocate both Ukraine’s speedy accession to the EU and that the bloc adopt more punitive measures against Poland can’t have it both ways.
...
What tends to be underestimated is the extent to which the Polish rule of law crisis represents a crisis of EU constitutionalism. At the same time, those who rightly stress the Commission’s role as the guardian of the treaties, arguably underplay member countries’ standing as the masters of the treaties.
The EU that rule-of-law-advocates call on to save Polish democracy from the Polish government is a platonic ideal, one that embodies and projects an untainted version of its Article 2 values — respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights.
But that EU doesn’t exist.
The EU that exists is the one that does deals with Turkey and Libya to prevent non-European asylum seekers from reaching its shores. It’s the EU that punishes Greece with endless austerity because debt relief was judged politically untenable. It’s the EU that blocks a patent waiver on COVID-19 vaccines. It’s the EU of which Poland and Hungary are a part.
...
A decade from now, Ukraine is unlikely to be any closer to Western European ideals of judicial independence, an apolitical civil service or a free press than Poland is today. So, what do these concerns mean for the country’s European aspirations?
The truth is, none of this should prevent the EU and its member countries from helping Ukraine now, or from accepting it as a full member once the war is over. If Europe is to remain free and united, Ukraine must prevail against Russia.
But the war, much like the challenge posed by Poland, is bound to change the project of European unity. And the result is destined to be an EU that’s more heterogeneous and more reliant on political compromises that defy the straightforward application of legal rules — a messy concession.
作者主张欧盟放弃一部分constitutionalism，接受内部成员价值的多元化。欧盟Constitutionalism的根底是liberalism和cosmopolitanism，在这些核心理念上做出妥协，就是承认自由主义和世界主义在现实中能够伸展的限度。
The EU’s future lies in its east
...the conflict between Warsaw and Brussels can’t be “won” by one side or the other — particularly in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Much like the concessions currently being hashed out by both parties, the only outcome can be a messy compromise.
Simply put, those who advocate both Ukraine’s speedy accession to the EU and that the bloc adopt more punitive measures against Poland can’t have it both ways.
...
What tends to be underestimated is the extent to which the Polish rule of law crisis represents a crisis of EU constitutionalism. At the same time, those who rightly stress the Commission’s role as the guardian of the treaties, arguably underplay member countries’ standing as the masters of the treaties.
The EU that rule-of-law-advocates call on to save Polish democracy from the Polish government is a platonic ideal, one that embodies and projects an untainted version of its Article 2 values — respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights.
But that EU doesn’t exist.
The EU that exists is the one that does deals with Turkey and Libya to prevent non-European asylum seekers from reaching its shores. It’s the EU that punishes Greece with endless austerity because debt relief was judged politically untenable. It’s the EU that blocks a patent waiver on COVID-19 vaccines. It’s the EU of which Poland and Hungary are a part.
...
A decade from now, Ukraine is unlikely to be any closer to Western European ideals of judicial independence, an apolitical civil service or a free press than Poland is today. So, what do these concerns mean for the country’s European aspirations?
The truth is, none of this should prevent the EU and its member countries from helping Ukraine now, or from accepting it as a full member once the war is over. If Europe is to remain free and united, Ukraine must prevail against Russia.
But the war, much like the challenge posed by Poland, is bound to change the project of European unity. And the result is destined to be an EU that’s more heterogeneous and more reliant on political compromises that defy the straightforward application of legal rules — a messy concession.
欧洲民意：主和派压过主战派
Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine
...ECFR’s research shows that, while Europeans feel great solidarity with Ukraine and support sanctions against Russia, they are split about the long-term goals. They divide between a “Peace” camp (35 per cent of people) that wants the war to end as soon as possible, and a “Justice” camp that believes the more pressing goal is to punish Russia (25 per cent of people).
In all countries, apart from Poland, the “Peace” camp is larger than the “Justice” camp. European citizens worry about the cost of economic sanctions and the threat of nuclear escalation. Unless something dramatically changes, they will oppose a long and protracted war. Only in Poland, Germany, Sweden, and Finland is there substantial public support for boosting military spending.
...
Peace versus justice
In theory, all European governments concur that it is up to the Ukrainians to decide when to stop the war and to agree the shape of peace. But clear divisions emerge in the poll when voters choose between whether Europe should seek to end the war as soon as possible – even if it means Ukraine making concessions – or whether the most important goal is to punish Russia for its aggression and to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine – even if such a road leads to protracted conflict and more human suffering.
These results place Europeans into two opposing groups: a Peace camp and a Justice camp. Supporters of the Peace camp want peace now even at the cost of Ukrainian concessions to Russia. The Justice camp believes that only Russia’s clear defeat can bring peace. This split runs through many countries – and between them. As the conflict in Ukraine turns into a long war of attrition, it risks becoming the key dividing line in Europe. And, unless political leaders handle this difference in standpoint carefully, it could spell the end for Europe’s remarkable unity.
Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine
...ECFR’s research shows that, while Europeans feel great solidarity with Ukraine and support sanctions against Russia, they are split about the long-term goals. They divide between a “Peace” camp (35 per cent of people) that wants the war to end as soon as possible, and a “Justice” camp that believes the more pressing goal is to punish Russia (25 per cent of people).
In all countries, apart from Poland, the “Peace” camp is larger than the “Justice” camp. European citizens worry about the cost of economic sanctions and the threat of nuclear escalation. Unless something dramatically changes, they will oppose a long and protracted war. Only in Poland, Germany, Sweden, and Finland is there substantial public support for boosting military spending.
...
Peace versus justice
In theory, all European governments concur that it is up to the Ukrainians to decide when to stop the war and to agree the shape of peace. But clear divisions emerge in the poll when voters choose between whether Europe should seek to end the war as soon as possible – even if it means Ukraine making concessions – or whether the most important goal is to punish Russia for its aggression and to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine – even if such a road leads to protracted conflict and more human suffering.
These results place Europeans into two opposing groups: a Peace camp and a Justice camp. Supporters of the Peace camp want peace now even at the cost of Ukrainian concessions to Russia. The Justice camp believes that only Russia’s clear defeat can bring peace. This split runs through many countries – and between them. As the conflict in Ukraine turns into a long war of attrition, it risks becoming the key dividing line in Europe. And, unless political leaders handle this difference in standpoint carefully, it could spell the end for Europe’s remarkable unity.
虽然不想乳法 但这既视感属实太强
The Trans Movement Is Failing Where the Gay-Rights Movement Succeeded
...there is a key difference between the two social-change movements. While there are many reasons for the rapid shift in opinion on gay marriage, one strong component to it was that there was a libertarian thread at the heart of it. Proponents argued that if two men fell in love, decided they wanted to spend their life together, and wanted to make it official, it should be their own business and nobody else's. Arguments made by social conservatives about the breakdown of traditional marriage did not prevail, especially with the younger generation, because people ultimately concluded that one couple's same-sex marriage poses no threat to anybody else's ability to have a happy heterosexual marriage. The libertarian argument is what helped win over a lot of small-government Republican and independent voters to the cause of gay marriage. In 2004, just 19 percent of Republicans supported gay marriage, according to Gallup, but by 2021, a 55-percent majority did.
What's substantially different about the current debate on the transgender front is that it has moved away from the successful strategy of gay-marriage proponents. While the public is broadly accepting of the idea that adults who want to identify as a different gender and undergo hormone treatment to live out their lives should be given space to do so, transgender activists are pushing for changes that have direct ramifications for others. Two men falling in love and getting married may not directly affect anybody else, but when an athlete who has gone through male puberty starts to dominate a woman's sport, it does.
...there is a key difference between the two social-change movements. While there are many reasons for the rapid shift in opinion on gay marriage, one strong component to it was that there was a libertarian thread at the heart of it. Proponents argued that if two men fell in love, decided they wanted to spend their life together, and wanted to make it official, it should be their own business and nobody else's. Arguments made by social conservatives about the breakdown of traditional marriage did not prevail, especially with the younger generation, because people ultimately concluded that one couple's same-sex marriage poses no threat to anybody else's ability to have a happy heterosexual marriage. The libertarian argument is what helped win over a lot of small-government Republican and independent voters to the cause of gay marriage. In 2004, just 19 percent of Republicans supported gay marriage, according to Gallup, but by 2021, a 55-percent majority did.
What's substantially different about the current debate on the transgender front is that it has moved away from the successful strategy of gay-marriage proponents. While the public is broadly accepting of the idea that adults who want to identify as a different gender and undergo hormone treatment to live out their lives should be given space to do so, transgender activists are pushing for changes that have direct ramifications for others. Two men falling in love and getting married may not directly affect anybody else, but when an athlete who has gone through male puberty starts to dominate a woman's sport, it does.
加税 高油价 支持率暴跌 放开中国关税 怎么这会没人骂joejoe了？ 至少对标下trump的待遇吧
主战派内部分歧曝光于媒体：
When the secretaries of Defense and State said publicly the U.S. wants Ukraine to win and weaken Russia, Biden said tone it down
...During their whirlwind April trip, Austin appeared to expand the U.S. goals in Ukraine, saying publicly that the administration wanted the Ukrainians to win the war against Russia, not just defend themselves, and that the U.S. hoped to weaken Russia to the extent that it could not launch another unprovoked invasion. Blinken had publicly aligned himself with the remarks. Now Biden wanted to discuss the mounting headlines that resulted.
Biden thought the secretaries had gone too far, according to multiple administration officials familiar with the call. On the previously unreported conference call, as Austin flew to Germany and Blinken to Washington, the president expressed concern that the comments could set unrealistic expectations and increase the risk of the U.S. getting into a direct conflict with Russia. He told them to tone it down, said the officials.
“Biden was not happy when Blinken and Austin talked about winning in Ukraine,” one of them said. “He was not happy with the rhetoric.”
...
U.S. officials are increasingly concerned that the trajectory of the war in Ukraine is untenable and are quietly discussing whether President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should temper his hard-line public position that no territory will ever be ceded to Russia as part of an agreement to end the war, according to seven current U.S. officials, former U.S. officials and European officials.
Some officials want Zelenskyy to “dial it back a little bit,” as one of them put it, when it comes to telegraphing his red lines on ending the war.
When the secretaries of Defense and State said publicly the U.S. wants Ukraine to win and weaken Russia, Biden said tone it down
...During their whirlwind April trip, Austin appeared to expand the U.S. goals in Ukraine, saying publicly that the administration wanted the Ukrainians to win the war against Russia, not just defend themselves, and that the U.S. hoped to weaken Russia to the extent that it could not launch another unprovoked invasion. Blinken had publicly aligned himself with the remarks. Now Biden wanted to discuss the mounting headlines that resulted.
Biden thought the secretaries had gone too far, according to multiple administration officials familiar with the call. On the previously unreported conference call, as Austin flew to Germany and Blinken to Washington, the president expressed concern that the comments could set unrealistic expectations and increase the risk of the U.S. getting into a direct conflict with Russia. He told them to tone it down, said the officials.
“Biden was not happy when Blinken and Austin talked about winning in Ukraine,” one of them said. “He was not happy with the rhetoric.”
...
U.S. officials are increasingly concerned that the trajectory of the war in Ukraine is untenable and are quietly discussing whether President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should temper his hard-line public position that no territory will ever be ceded to Russia as part of an agreement to end the war, according to seven current U.S. officials, former U.S. officials and European officials.
Some officials want Zelenskyy to “dial it back a little bit,” as one of them put it, when it comes to telegraphing his red lines on ending the war.
Big Tech推行深入日常的意识形态专制的最新实例：
EXCLUSIVE: The Code Behind Google’s Woke Autocorrect
Leaked material from Google provided exclusively to Breitbart News give a behind-the-scenes glimpse of a feature rolled out to business and enterprise users of Google Docs that suggests woke-approved replacements for words like “man,” “woman,” “white,” and “master” as users type.
In the examples below, Google’s curated list of non-woke words and their woke replacements can be seen, such as replacing “manhole” with “maintenance hole” and “whitepaper” with “report.”
In some cases, Google can be seen struggling to replace everyday words. “Motherhood,” for example, is replaced with the far less succinct “experience of being a parent or guardian.”
The feature is so clunky and riddled with errors, that Breitbart News’ source within Google, who wishes to remain anonymous, now says the company is going to roll it back.
“This was an amazingly ham-handed feature,” said the Google employee. “A crude (with at least one spelling mistake), manually curated but poorly vetted list of anything vaguely race or gender-related that led to an obviously bad user experience. It’s hard to believe it ever went through user research.”
Google announced the feature’s rollout in April, but gave scant details about how it operated, except to say that it would flag “discriminatory and inappropriate language” to users and recommend more “inclusive” alternatives.
这类作为意识形态控制手段的Newspeak是奥威尔设想过的，但是他当年想象不到意识形态掌控者能以文字输入法这样日常而体贴的方式输出控制。《1984》中控制者操纵其对象的方式在21世纪已经显得落伍：墙上的电视机/监控摄像头、告密者、政治会议。新一波操控手段是文字输入法、社交媒体流量控制、搜索引擎结果筛选排序、支付平台政审、社会信用体系，等等。新手段没有传统专制技术令人生厌、生畏的物理外观，但影响同样可观。目前的危险是，由于新手段不引人注目，它们扩张势力、侵蚀社会的过程没有被公众太多留意，大多数人对专制的想象还停留在20世纪。而等到社会开始关注此一问题，技术专制力量也许已经强大到难以遏制。
EXCLUSIVE: The Code Behind Google’s Woke Autocorrect
Leaked material from Google provided exclusively to Breitbart News give a behind-the-scenes glimpse of a feature rolled out to business and enterprise users of Google Docs that suggests woke-approved replacements for words like “man,” “woman,” “white,” and “master” as users type.
In the examples below, Google’s curated list of non-woke words and their woke replacements can be seen, such as replacing “manhole” with “maintenance hole” and “whitepaper” with “report.”
In some cases, Google can be seen struggling to replace everyday words. “Motherhood,” for example, is replaced with the far less succinct “experience of being a parent or guardian.”
The feature is so clunky and riddled with errors, that Breitbart News’ source within Google, who wishes to remain anonymous, now says the company is going to roll it back.
“This was an amazingly ham-handed feature,” said the Google employee. “A crude (with at least one spelling mistake), manually curated but poorly vetted list of anything vaguely race or gender-related that led to an obviously bad user experience. It’s hard to believe it ever went through user research.”
Google announced the feature’s rollout in April, but gave scant details about how it operated, except to say that it would flag “discriminatory and inappropriate language” to users and recommend more “inclusive” alternatives.
这类作为意识形态控制手段的Newspeak是奥威尔设想过的，但是他当年想象不到意识形态掌控者能以文字输入法这样日常而体贴的方式输出控制。《1984》中控制者操纵其对象的方式在21世纪已经显得落伍：墙上的电视机/监控摄像头、告密者、政治会议。新一波操控手段是文字输入法、社交媒体流量控制、搜索引擎结果筛选排序、支付平台政审、社会信用体系，等等。新手段没有传统专制技术令人生厌、生畏的物理外观，但影响同样可观。目前的危险是，由于新手段不引人注目，它们扩张势力、侵蚀社会的过程没有被公众太多留意，大多数人对专制的想象还停留在20世纪。而等到社会开始关注此一问题，技术专制力量也许已经强大到难以遏制。
Ralph Schoellhammer @Raphfel
To quote @chigrl: We are not governed by serious people.
I fear this is just the beginning - only very few politicians are willing to admit that the ideologically driven energy policy of the last few decades was wrong, and instead most of them will double down on failed policies
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1537322143083528192
Greg Price @greg_price11
Doocy: "The president once said he's going to end fossil fuels. Is that now off the table?"
Jean-Pierre: "No, we are going to continue to move forward..."
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1537474564191571970
Greg Price @greg_price11
Yesterday: "Be patriotic and lower your gas prices."
Today: "Actually, we will prevent you from producing oil."
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1537475735958478851
To quote @chigrl: We are not governed by serious people.
I fear this is just the beginning - only very few politicians are willing to admit that the ideologically driven energy policy of the last few decades was wrong, and instead most of them will double down on failed policies
Gray Connolly @GrayConnolly
The US Energy Secretary wants both a rapid expansion of US oil investments in extraction & refining BUT also wants to reduce these same industries in the next decade. A completely unserious clownshow
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1537322143083528192
Greg Price @greg_price11
Doocy: "The president once said he's going to end fossil fuels. Is that now off the table?"
Jean-Pierre: "No, we are going to continue to move forward..."
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1537474564191571970
Greg Price @greg_price11
Yesterday: "Be patriotic and lower your gas prices."
Today: "Actually, we will prevent you from producing oil."
Townhall.com @townhallcom
KJP calls on oil companies to "be patriots" and lower gas prices.
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1537475735958478851
>>Ralph Schoellhammer @RaphfelTo quote @chigrl: We a...
Greg Price @greg_price11
Yesterday: "Be patriotic and lower your gas prices."
Today: "Actually, we will prevent you from producing oil."
在这个「新」时代，所谓「疯」的极致，就是以人脑实现电脑的 infinite loop，或者叫「Dead Lock」。
Google 如此，Biden 如此。就算换成我自己，如果要享受「疯带来的愉悦」，那么结果也不会例外的，是谓「存在之法则」、「命运之手腕」，倘若喜欢另一套 taxonomy，可以用「God the Absolute Reality」。
同理，现在依旧在白左恩赐的思维粪坑里打滚的无数忠仆们，渴望脖子上的那根链能「有一只强而有力的手」彻底来掌握的他们，只能暂时屈就于 「 totally lost submissive 」这种和他们嗜虐本性相悖的角色和地位，昼思夜想，千回梦转，等着、盼着、渴望着：「伟大的奥古斯都！何日再临？？」
-----------------------------------------
自我矛盾，注定自我毁灭。
就这么简单。命运从来不搞拐弯抹角那一套。哪怕看起来顺风顺水，直攀高峰，也肯定在某个时候发生某种「意外」，然后急转直下。历史中充满这种好戏，可惜在如今的历史书里基本上看不到罢了。
然而就跟那些日夜都在想钱的绝大多数，从来不愿意认真谈钱这个话题一样，天天白日梦要做人上人的绝大多数也从来不愿意真的了解「人下人」这个庞大群体是如何「自愿、自主地自我形成，还要自发、自动地自我保持」，并且「与大地一样永恒」的。
我们必须把气候变化当作威胁，作为总统我将
- 结束对化石燃料的补贴
- 禁止在联邦土地和水域进行新的钻探
- 追究石油主管人员的责任
- 召集世界各国提高《巴黎协定》的承诺
joejoe 2020
https://twitter.com/__Inty__/status/1537503008317067264
- 结束对化石燃料的补贴
- 禁止在联邦土地和水域进行新的钻探
- 追究石油主管人员的责任
- 召集世界各国提高《巴黎协定》的承诺
joejoe 2020
https://twitter.com/__Inty__/status/1537503008317067264
https://twitter.com/nytchinese/status/1532293445674586112
太对了 外宣钱没白花
太对了 外宣钱没白花
>>https://twitter.com/nytchinese/status/153229344567...
这个倒是早就出来了，很显然份量不够，所以 Niall Ferguson 一众出来加码。
不过那些小心思，「人民大众」是从来不会理，甚至永远看不见的。
现在的欧洲风向是：「谁敢抛弃泽连斯基，谁就要被人民抛弃」。对于美国这个需要保住实质边界的霸权而言，如今最称职的棋子就是乌克兰，远胜法、德、意、土。
-------------------------------------------
最近 BOJO 又去了基辅，然后那一推在不到48小时之内，收到 68000+ 的赞，依然远超过他的其他推之和。回复中搞阴阳怪气的也只能用非直白的讽刺，而且马上被喷回去。
而前工党党魁 Jeremy Corbyn 在推特中极力避免 Ukraine 这个词，连批评「通胀」也只敢绕着走。他在5月唯一一次在政治投机中真正涉及到 Ukraine ：
Over a decade of austerity and the cost of living scandal has devastated our communities and caused the biggest decline of living standards for working class people in the UK for a generation.
The government must act now.
当然了，直言是绝对不敢的。
现任工党党魁 Keir Starmer 就更不用说了，这位在5月唯一一次真正提到 Ukraine 的内容是：
Great to meet with Norway's PM @jonasgahrstore.
We discussed the urgent need to protect people from rising energy costs and the ambition needed to deliver jobs of the future.
I also thanked the Norwegian people as Europe stands united against Russia's attack on Ukraine.
他连讲点儿「方向上不配合的」都不敢。这一条推只收到1200赞，他反以色列的那一条则是18300赞。
这种指标人物的指标性动作（风信鸡指标），反映的是无可争议的「英国人民心声」，属于实时获取的 primary source，只要能「作为人去理解」人行动的时间地点和场合所反映的真实内心状况，那些长篇累牍画蛇添脚的火星视角分析，其实全部都是自己嫌命太长的时间浪费，是嫌做人太无聊了，非要遮遮掩掩玩儿角色扮演，过一把那「高高在上的不可曰」之瘾。再不然，就是靠干这一行赚自己的棺材本儿。
何况，如今BoJo「流放非法入境者」的行动遭到所有需要难民才能继续发财的建制派一致抵抗，正是需要赢得「人民」支持方能踩扁所有障碍继续往前的关键时刻。
同理，拜登和民主党一众，远比美国人民更需要这场战争以目前这种「不过不失」的状态持续到年底。
-------------------------------------------
照例讲两句务虚的。
心怀理想的勇士们，无论是在什么情况下站出来，总会有一天清醒地意识到，比起眼睛能盯着的星星，脚下能踩稳的地面不但绝对必要，而且在决定应该看哪颗星星这件事情上，比眼界和手腕重要得多。
奥巴马、拜登、默克尔、施罗德，还有明天就很可能成为哥伦比亚总统的 Mr. Petro ，这类人们的一个绝对共同点，就是「踩的地方永远不稳」，或者「一定选择绝对没法儿稳多久的下脚处」。
奥巴马在2009年说的第一番话就是：「大国争霸的时代已经过去……」
现在谁还记得？他的「自己人」？
再补一条这两天亲身经历的「趣闻」，有意者自行尝试：
然后请自行比较内容结果。
Period.
-------------------------------
明白人自然一看便明白。
- 开网页，进入Google.ca
- 输入"CNN weeks left"，回车
- 再开一页，进入duckduckgo.com
- 输入"CNN weeks left"，回车
然后请自行比较内容结果。
Period.
-------------------------------
明白人自然一看便明白。
中式废话：绕圈子 踢皮球 猜谜语
美式废话：什么都说了 又什么都没说
https://twitter.com/__Inty__/status/1538541028952616970
美式废话：什么都说了 又什么都没说
https://twitter.com/__Inty__/status/1538541028952616970
Dr. Jon Stanley @JonMarcStanley
Imagine it as 1982 and the Soviets closed off all roads to West Berlin. There have been war games over this.
So, if Lithuania gets invaded, their call. There was no need to even try this stunt. Those goods are going from and to Russia. That's it.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-condemns-lithuania-transit-ban-kaliningrad-vows-response-2022-06-20/
Replying to @JonMarcStanley
Sanctions do not cover sealed transit across territory from one part of a country to another. There are conventions for just this situation.
https://twitter.com/JonMarcStanley/status/1538846232885485570
Imagine it as 1982 and the Soviets closed off all roads to West Berlin. There have been war games over this.
So, if Lithuania gets invaded, their call. There was no need to even try this stunt. Those goods are going from and to Russia. That's it.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-condemns-lithuania-transit-ban-kaliningrad-vows-response-2022-06-20/
Replying to @JonMarcStanley
Sanctions do not cover sealed transit across territory from one part of a country to another. There are conventions for just this situation.
https://twitter.com/JonMarcStanley/status/1538846232885485570
Dr S Maitra @MrMaitra
The 2 plausible conclusions are, 1. EU doesn't see Russia as enough of a threat and knows Uncle Sucker is there to pay with enough flattery about rules-based order. 2. the US is failing to prioritise due to internal dynamic and Ukraine lobby. Neither good.
https://twitter.com/MrMaitra/status/1537823679094173697
The 2 plausible conclusions are, 1. EU doesn't see Russia as enough of a threat and knows Uncle Sucker is there to pay with enough flattery about rules-based order. 2. the US is failing to prioritise due to internal dynamic and Ukraine lobby. Neither good.
Elbridge Colby @ElbridgeColby
This is unsustainable. Europe needs to take the lead. "The U.S. [has given] €42.7 bn, or about half, while the EU ponied up €27.2 bn. It is remarkable that the US alone has committed considerably more than all the EU, in whose neighborhood the war is.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/whos-really-helping-ukraine-voloymyr-zelensky-france-emmanuel-macron-russia-11655410110
https://twitter.com/MrMaitra/status/1537823679094173697
Philippe Lemoine @phl43
What it shows is that you can only ignore people’s grievances by dismissing them as "far-right" for so long before reality punches you in the face
https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1538593907273080834
What it shows is that you can only ignore people’s grievances by dismissing them as "far-right" for so long before reality punches you in the face
Sophie Pedder @PedderSophie
In 2017 Le Pen's party got just 8 seats; today it is looking at possibly 89. To have such a massive number of RN deputies in parliament represents the alarming normalisation of far-right discourse in French public life
https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1538593907273080834
The doctors profiting from trans surgery
"I have the strangest feeling that my body has been stolen from me. When I started my transition, I was not aware of any options besides medical treatment to modify my body. Years later, I still ask myself why no one told me that I could have left my body the way it was; why no one ever explained that sexuality in that body was possible. There was no violence involved, no threats were made.
"But I feel that I was robbed of the possibility to experience my body any other way."
My puberty was chemically delayed. I was their guinea pig
Alex* was a girl who desperately wanted to be a boy. From the ages of 12 to 16, “he” embarked on four years of experimental treatment, in a desperate bid to transform from female to male. Now 18 and trying to catch up on a chemically delayed adolescence, he feels the Tavistock treated him like “a guinea pig”.
The gender clinic that sent him into the medical unknown has no record of the outcome of his case, he says. It does not know the impact of those experimental drugs on his body, or the repercussions of this supposedly pioneering treatment on his life, he claims, because no one ever asked.
How, he asks, could the NHS’s main gender identity clinic for young people claim its controversial approach was working if it wasn’t recording the results?
‘I literally lost organs:’ Why detransitioned teens regret changing genders
“I was failed by the system. I literally lost organs.”
When Chloe was 12 years old, she decided she was transgender. At 13, she came out to her parents. That same year, she was put on puberty blockers and prescribed testosterone. At 15, she underwent a double mastectomy. Less than a year later, she realized she’d made a mistake — all by the time she was 16 years old.
Now 17, Chloe is one of a growing cohort called “detransitioners” — those who seek to reverse a gender transition, often after realizing they actually do identify with their biological sex. Tragically, many will struggle for the rest of their lives with the irreversible medical consequences of a decision they made as minors.
“I can’t stay quiet,” said Chloe. “I need to do something about this and to share my own cautionary tale.”
"I have the strangest feeling that my body has been stolen from me. When I started my transition, I was not aware of any options besides medical treatment to modify my body. Years later, I still ask myself why no one told me that I could have left my body the way it was; why no one ever explained that sexuality in that body was possible. There was no violence involved, no threats were made.
"But I feel that I was robbed of the possibility to experience my body any other way."
My puberty was chemically delayed. I was their guinea pig
Alex* was a girl who desperately wanted to be a boy. From the ages of 12 to 16, “he” embarked on four years of experimental treatment, in a desperate bid to transform from female to male. Now 18 and trying to catch up on a chemically delayed adolescence, he feels the Tavistock treated him like “a guinea pig”.
The gender clinic that sent him into the medical unknown has no record of the outcome of his case, he says. It does not know the impact of those experimental drugs on his body, or the repercussions of this supposedly pioneering treatment on his life, he claims, because no one ever asked.
How, he asks, could the NHS’s main gender identity clinic for young people claim its controversial approach was working if it wasn’t recording the results?
‘I literally lost organs:’ Why detransitioned teens regret changing genders
“I was failed by the system. I literally lost organs.”
When Chloe was 12 years old, she decided she was transgender. At 13, she came out to her parents. That same year, she was put on puberty blockers and prescribed testosterone. At 15, she underwent a double mastectomy. Less than a year later, she realized she’d made a mistake — all by the time she was 16 years old.
Now 17, Chloe is one of a growing cohort called “detransitioners” — those who seek to reverse a gender transition, often after realizing they actually do identify with their biological sex. Tragically, many will struggle for the rest of their lives with the irreversible medical consequences of a decision they made as minors.
“I can’t stay quiet,” said Chloe. “I need to do something about this and to share my own cautionary tale.”
The Future Isn’t Female Anymore
Recently the Southern Poverty Law Center and Tulchin Research commissioned a poll of 1,500 Americans to measure belief in various reactionary sentiments, including the “great replacement” conspiracy theory and the idea that trans people are a threat to children. Because misogyny is so ubiquitous in far-right spaces, Cassie Miller, a senior research analyst at the S.P.L.C., decided to add a question about feminism.
Predictably, most young Republicans agree with the statement, “Feminism has done more harm than good.” What was astonishing was how many young Democrats agreed as well. While only 4 percent of Democratic men over 50 thought feminism was harmful, 46 percent of Democratic men under 50 did. Nearly a quarter of Democratic women under 50 agreed, compared with only 10 percent of those 50 and older.
“In a poll of a lot of really shocking and disappointing findings, people’s responses to feminism and gender roles was the most shocking and disheartening,” said Miller. “I just didn’t expect to see those numbers.”
Recently the Southern Poverty Law Center and Tulchin Research commissioned a poll of 1,500 Americans to measure belief in various reactionary sentiments, including the “great replacement” conspiracy theory and the idea that trans people are a threat to children. Because misogyny is so ubiquitous in far-right spaces, Cassie Miller, a senior research analyst at the S.P.L.C., decided to add a question about feminism.
Predictably, most young Republicans agree with the statement, “Feminism has done more harm than good.” What was astonishing was how many young Democrats agreed as well. While only 4 percent of Democratic men over 50 thought feminism was harmful, 46 percent of Democratic men under 50 did. Nearly a quarter of Democratic women under 50 agreed, compared with only 10 percent of those 50 and older.
“In a poll of a lot of really shocking and disappointing findings, people’s responses to feminism and gender roles was the most shocking and disheartening,” said Miller. “I just didn’t expect to see those numbers.”
On Inflation, Economics Has Some Explaining to Do
Having failed to anticipate the steepest inflation in 40 years, you would think the economics discipline would be knee-deep in postmortems.
Not yet. Outside of a handful of individuals, economists have thus far devoted remarkably little attention to how their theories and models got inflation so wrong. There has yet to be a surge of studies from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the leading outlet for academic economics, on inflation as compared with the gusher of papers on pandemics in 2020.
This would be understandable if economists had only missed by a bit. They didn’t. Inflation at the end of last year was more than double the median projection among economists surveyed eight months earlier and well above the highest forecast.
Economists at both the Federal Reserve and the White House were blindsided. The European Central Bank recently reported that the accuracy of its inflation forecasts “declined significantly during the COVID-19 crisis.”
Having failed to anticipate the steepest inflation in 40 years, you would think the economics discipline would be knee-deep in postmortems.
Not yet. Outside of a handful of individuals, economists have thus far devoted remarkably little attention to how their theories and models got inflation so wrong. There has yet to be a surge of studies from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the leading outlet for academic economics, on inflation as compared with the gusher of papers on pandemics in 2020.
This would be understandable if economists had only missed by a bit. They didn’t. Inflation at the end of last year was more than double the median projection among economists surveyed eight months earlier and well above the highest forecast.
Economists at both the Federal Reserve and the White House were blindsided. The European Central Bank recently reported that the accuracy of its inflation forecasts “declined significantly during the COVID-19 crisis.”
Le Pen’s National Rally wins seats, airtime and money in French vote
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally shattered a glass ceiling in Sunday’s French legislative elections — with an elevenfold increase to 89 seats that gives the party unprecedented power in the incoming National Assembly.
With 89 MPs, not only has Le Pen been resurrected — after keeping a low profile following her loss to President Emmanuel Macron — but the resurgent far-right party will become a parliamentary group for the first time since 1986.
...
The far-right party, which only had eight MPs in the last makeup of the French lower chamber, had fallen short of the 15-seat threshold political parties have to reach to form a parliamentary group in its last term. MPs who are not in groups have less speaking time, less means and less say in how the assembly operates. Groups also get office space and meeting rooms.
With 89 seats, the National Rally will also be able to put forward a no-confidence vote. This could prove risky for Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne’s government, which has a majority of MPs against it. It is also above the 60-seat bar needed to refer a passed bill to the Constitutional Court, which is able to censor texts it deems anti-constitutional.
Le Pen’s party has also bagged an actual jackpot, as the French state gives more money to parties that do well in elections. The party will receive about €10 million every year until 2027. At the end of 2020, the party had close to €24 million in debt, according to an official transparency report.
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally shattered a glass ceiling in Sunday’s French legislative elections — with an elevenfold increase to 89 seats that gives the party unprecedented power in the incoming National Assembly.
With 89 MPs, not only has Le Pen been resurrected — after keeping a low profile following her loss to President Emmanuel Macron — but the resurgent far-right party will become a parliamentary group for the first time since 1986.
...
The far-right party, which only had eight MPs in the last makeup of the French lower chamber, had fallen short of the 15-seat threshold political parties have to reach to form a parliamentary group in its last term. MPs who are not in groups have less speaking time, less means and less say in how the assembly operates. Groups also get office space and meeting rooms.
With 89 seats, the National Rally will also be able to put forward a no-confidence vote. This could prove risky for Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne’s government, which has a majority of MPs against it. It is also above the 60-seat bar needed to refer a passed bill to the Constitutional Court, which is able to censor texts it deems anti-constitutional.
Le Pen’s party has also bagged an actual jackpot, as the French state gives more money to parties that do well in elections. The party will receive about €10 million every year until 2027. At the end of 2020, the party had close to €24 million in debt, according to an official transparency report.
With scant options in Ukraine, U.S. and allies prepare for long war
...The Biden administration hopes that the new weaponry, in addition to successive waves of sanctions and Russia’s diplomatic isolation, will make a difference in an eventual negotiated conclusion to the war, potentially diminishing Putin’s willingness to keep up the fight, the official said.
Even if that reality does not materialize immediately, officials have described the stakes of ensuring Russia cannot swallow up Ukraine — an outcome officials believe could embolden Putin to invade other neighbors or even strike out at NATO members — as so high that the administration is willing to countenance even a global recession and mounting hunger.
Already the war, compounding the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, has plunged the world economy, now expected to suffer years of low growth, into renewed crisis. It has also deepened a global food emergency as the fighting pushes up prices of basic goods and cripples Ukraine’s grain exports — which typically feed hundreds of millions of people a year — pushing some 44 million people closer to starvation, according to the World Food Program.
“While it’s certainly challenging — we’re not certainly sugarcoating that — in terms of how to navigate these stormy waters, our guiding light is that the outcome of Russia being able to achieve its maximalist demands is really bad for the United States, really bad for our partners and allies, and really bad for the global community,” the State Department official said.
...The Biden administration hopes that the new weaponry, in addition to successive waves of sanctions and Russia’s diplomatic isolation, will make a difference in an eventual negotiated conclusion to the war, potentially diminishing Putin’s willingness to keep up the fight, the official said.
Even if that reality does not materialize immediately, officials have described the stakes of ensuring Russia cannot swallow up Ukraine — an outcome officials believe could embolden Putin to invade other neighbors or even strike out at NATO members — as so high that the administration is willing to countenance even a global recession and mounting hunger.
Already the war, compounding the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, has plunged the world economy, now expected to suffer years of low growth, into renewed crisis. It has also deepened a global food emergency as the fighting pushes up prices of basic goods and cripples Ukraine’s grain exports — which typically feed hundreds of millions of people a year — pushing some 44 million people closer to starvation, according to the World Food Program.
“While it’s certainly challenging — we’re not certainly sugarcoating that — in terms of how to navigate these stormy waters, our guiding light is that the outcome of Russia being able to achieve its maximalist demands is really bad for the United States, really bad for our partners and allies, and really bad for the global community,” the State Department official said.
Philippe Lemoine @phl43
Some Western officials may be willing to go to such lengths to deny Russia a victory in Ukraine, but voters probably aren't and it's unclear for how long it will be possible to ignore them when they start feeling the pain.
As I said in March, people in the West are used to sanctions and proxy wars that don't meaningfully affect them, but it's going to be different this time. Ultimately the outcome of the war will depend on who cares more about Ukraine.
Indeed, without massive Western support, the Ukrainian economy and ability to prosecute the war will collapse before Russia's. I think it will be difficult for Western political elites to maintain this support when things get really bad, but I guess we're going to find out.
In any case, it's not as if another policy were really possible for the moment, because neither side is willing to negotiate for real yet and it's also not politically realistic for Western leaders to stop supporting Ukraine at this point because they'd get dragged by the media.
However, this will probably change when the economic situation in the West starts degrading, because then it will become more politically costly to continue to give Ukraine the support it needs to stay in the fight. Putin is less constrained by public opinion.
I don't even think it matters that much to what extent sanctions and the war itself are to blame for the economic downturn. The point is just that, if there is a recession, it will become harder politically to justify sending billions in aid to Ukraine to keep the war going.
The West is far more powerful than Russia, but the question is whether it's so much more powerful than it can prevent Russia from winning a war on its doorstep its ruling elite sees as existential just by supporting a proxy war, without getting directly involved.
...
Still, if I had to bet right now, I'd bet that when all is said and done, we'll look back on this and see it as a case of hubris. We'll realize that we tried to do something that we couldn't realistically achieve because again there are limits to Western power.
Of course, if I'm right (the last time I bet on that issue I lost), many will claim that we just didn't do enough to help Ukraine because of pessimists and "traitors" like me, but that response will just ignore the political constraints faced by Western leaders I discussed above.
https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1539022092615794689
Some Western officials may be willing to go to such lengths to deny Russia a victory in Ukraine, but voters probably aren't and it's unclear for how long it will be possible to ignore them when they start feeling the pain.
As I said in March, people in the West are used to sanctions and proxy wars that don't meaningfully affect them, but it's going to be different this time. Ultimately the outcome of the war will depend on who cares more about Ukraine.
Indeed, without massive Western support, the Ukrainian economy and ability to prosecute the war will collapse before Russia's. I think it will be difficult for Western political elites to maintain this support when things get really bad, but I guess we're going to find out.
In any case, it's not as if another policy were really possible for the moment, because neither side is willing to negotiate for real yet and it's also not politically realistic for Western leaders to stop supporting Ukraine at this point because they'd get dragged by the media.
However, this will probably change when the economic situation in the West starts degrading, because then it will become more politically costly to continue to give Ukraine the support it needs to stay in the fight. Putin is less constrained by public opinion.
I don't even think it matters that much to what extent sanctions and the war itself are to blame for the economic downturn. The point is just that, if there is a recession, it will become harder politically to justify sending billions in aid to Ukraine to keep the war going.
The West is far more powerful than Russia, but the question is whether it's so much more powerful than it can prevent Russia from winning a war on its doorstep its ruling elite sees as existential just by supporting a proxy war, without getting directly involved.
...
Still, if I had to bet right now, I'd bet that when all is said and done, we'll look back on this and see it as a case of hubris. We'll realize that we tried to do something that we couldn't realistically achieve because again there are limits to Western power.
Of course, if I'm right (the last time I bet on that issue I lost), many will claim that we just didn't do enough to help Ukraine because of pessimists and "traitors" like me, but that response will just ignore the political constraints faced by Western leaders I discussed above.
https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1539022092615794689
PRIDE MONTH: Here’s How the Navy Is Training Sailors on Proper Gender Pronouns
The Navy is training its members to create a "safe space" by using proper gender pronouns in a new instructional video modeled after a children's show.
"Hi! My name is Jony, and I use he/him pronouns," Naval Undersea Warfare Center engineer Jony Rozon, who sports a rainbow-colored t-shirt, states in the video's opening.
The official training video is meant to emphasize "the importance of using correct pronouns as well as polite etiquette when you may not be sure of someone's pronouns," according to the Navy, which late last month published the video online. The Defense Visual Information Distribution Service touts the video as an "official U.S. Navy video" posted by Air Force staff sergeant John Vannucci.
The video is the latest bid by the military to foster a more sensitive environment for its members and staff. The Army mandates similar gender identity training and trains officers on when to offer subordinates gender-transition surgery, the Washington Free Beacon reported in March. These programs are part of a larger push by the Biden administration to make the military more welcoming to transgender individuals.
The Navy is training its members to create a "safe space" by using proper gender pronouns in a new instructional video modeled after a children's show.
"Hi! My name is Jony, and I use he/him pronouns," Naval Undersea Warfare Center engineer Jony Rozon, who sports a rainbow-colored t-shirt, states in the video's opening.
The official training video is meant to emphasize "the importance of using correct pronouns as well as polite etiquette when you may not be sure of someone's pronouns," according to the Navy, which late last month published the video online. The Defense Visual Information Distribution Service touts the video as an "official U.S. Navy video" posted by Air Force staff sergeant John Vannucci.
The video is the latest bid by the military to foster a more sensitive environment for its members and staff. The Army mandates similar gender identity training and trains officers on when to offer subordinates gender-transition surgery, the Washington Free Beacon reported in March. These programs are part of a larger push by the Biden administration to make the military more welcoming to transgender individuals.
很有意思但并不意外的是，对drag queen的态度是在文化战中区分保守派和传统自由派的标杆之一，在若干问题上和保守分子一同反对进步派的自由主义者总会找到各种其实说不通的理由来保卫drag queen的社会活动空间：
Andrew Sullivan @sullydish
Racy, stripper adult drag queens have no place around kids. Fun, costumed non-blue drag queens reading to kids is fine. Can we make that distinction and act accordingly?
https://twitter.com/sullydish/status/1538944632649924610
Claire Lehmann @clairlemon
I know people have strong opinions about drag queens, but in a world where we have increasing energy insecurity, a land war in Europe, inflation, a likely recession & possible future economic depression, maybe it isn't actually worth so much time & emotional investment?
https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1539058529247457280
这件事的核心是保护儿童的sexual innocence. 站在自由派立场上，有可能为儿童的sexual innocence提供辩护吗？如果有，辩护思路是什么？
Andrew Sullivan @sullydish
Racy, stripper adult drag queens have no place around kids. Fun, costumed non-blue drag queens reading to kids is fine. Can we make that distinction and act accordingly?
https://twitter.com/sullydish/status/1538944632649924610
Claire Lehmann @clairlemon
I know people have strong opinions about drag queens, but in a world where we have increasing energy insecurity, a land war in Europe, inflation, a likely recession & possible future economic depression, maybe it isn't actually worth so much time & emotional investment?
https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1539058529247457280
这件事的核心是保护儿童的sexual innocence. 站在自由派立场上，有可能为儿童的sexual innocence提供辩护吗？如果有，辩护思路是什么？
Ralph Schoellhammer @Raphfel
What this reflects is that too many EU politicians still believe that this is only a bump in the road and we will soon return to the pre-February 24th world where we can indulge in our ideological idiosyncrasies.
Europeans will pay a high price for this delusion.
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1539303904034312192
What this reflects is that too many EU politicians still believe that this is only a bump in the road and we will soon return to the pre-February 24th world where we can indulge in our ideological idiosyncrasies.
Europeans will pay a high price for this delusion.
Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl
EU lawmaker panels object to 'green' label for gas, and nuclear investments. In the meantime, last week, Germany, Austria, Italy, and the Netherlands announced that they were reopening coal plants to counter Russian gas flow.
make it make sense
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1539303904034312192
The Cradle @TheCradleMedia
Pan-Arab poll: Who is responsible for the conflict in Ukraine?
https://twitter.com/TheCradleMedia/status/1539325812557680641
More on this poll:
Study shows Arabs more likely to blame NATO than Russia for Ukraine war
Pan-Arab poll: Who is responsible for the conflict in Ukraine?
https://twitter.com/TheCradleMedia/status/1539325812557680641
Study shows Arabs more likely to blame NATO than Russia for Ukraine war
Why Does Some of the Arab Public Support Putin’s War in Ukraine?
...Since 2011, polarization in the Middle East has shaped the Arab public’s reactions to politics. While secular-religious polarization influences responses to domestic and regional issues, polarization over the model of governance (namely democracy versus the authoritarian strongman model) shapes reactions to many global issues, including the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Part of this polarization is the ongoing struggle between two narratives on the causes of Arab conflicts and the deterioration of many Arab countries since 2011. Whereas the democracy-supporting narrative considers that deterioration as an inevitable outcome of tyrannies ruling the region for decades, the counternarrative places the blame on Arab revolutions, democracy advocates, and the West.
The latter narrative, which finds support in a populist mood, claims that the strongman model (exemplified by Putin) should inspire the Arab people as a path to development and influence over the global order. Supporters of this model contend that, through an iron fist, it has the potential to control contradictions, prioritize national security, and ensure the rapid modernization of societies from above without the disruption of democratic contestation.
...
...For Putin’s supporters, Western responses to the Ukrainian crisis reveal double standards and contradict the prevailing Western discourse on the Arab crises. In the case of Ukraine, the leading Western countries have described the Russian war as an invasion that violated international law, considered Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory to be illegal, escalated, and quickly mobilized global potential against Russia. ...
Conversely, in the case of the Arab region, the same Western countries either participated in or overlooked the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. The invasion, which was considered to violate international law, was framed as an act of “liberation.” Moreover, over decades, Western countries overlooked the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, ignored the Israeli government’s de facto annexation of Palestinian land, considered the Palestinian and Iraqi resistance as terrorism, and sought to disrupt the prosecution of Israel at the ICC for alleged war crimes in the Palestinian territories.
...
Perhaps the dream of a multipolar world is another explanation for Putin’s support in the Arab region. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine helped to promote narratives of a new world order that is taking shape, motivated by growing Chinese economic influence and Russian geopolitical expansion. ... Indeed, in many Arab countries, citizens live in conditions of poverty and war, or are forced to emigrate, while other Arab countries are on the path to becoming failed states. Routes to recovery for these countries may take decades. In this context, future ambitions mingle with nostalgia and collective memories of the Cold War period in which the USSR was an ally of Arab regimes, a guarantor of the balance of power, a source of military and economic aid, and a supporter of the ambitious Arab quest for liberation.
...Since 2011, polarization in the Middle East has shaped the Arab public’s reactions to politics. While secular-religious polarization influences responses to domestic and regional issues, polarization over the model of governance (namely democracy versus the authoritarian strongman model) shapes reactions to many global issues, including the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Part of this polarization is the ongoing struggle between two narratives on the causes of Arab conflicts and the deterioration of many Arab countries since 2011. Whereas the democracy-supporting narrative considers that deterioration as an inevitable outcome of tyrannies ruling the region for decades, the counternarrative places the blame on Arab revolutions, democracy advocates, and the West.
The latter narrative, which finds support in a populist mood, claims that the strongman model (exemplified by Putin) should inspire the Arab people as a path to development and influence over the global order. Supporters of this model contend that, through an iron fist, it has the potential to control contradictions, prioritize national security, and ensure the rapid modernization of societies from above without the disruption of democratic contestation.
...
...For Putin’s supporters, Western responses to the Ukrainian crisis reveal double standards and contradict the prevailing Western discourse on the Arab crises. In the case of Ukraine, the leading Western countries have described the Russian war as an invasion that violated international law, considered Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory to be illegal, escalated, and quickly mobilized global potential against Russia. ...
Conversely, in the case of the Arab region, the same Western countries either participated in or overlooked the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. The invasion, which was considered to violate international law, was framed as an act of “liberation.” Moreover, over decades, Western countries overlooked the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, ignored the Israeli government’s de facto annexation of Palestinian land, considered the Palestinian and Iraqi resistance as terrorism, and sought to disrupt the prosecution of Israel at the ICC for alleged war crimes in the Palestinian territories.
...
Perhaps the dream of a multipolar world is another explanation for Putin’s support in the Arab region. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine helped to promote narratives of a new world order that is taking shape, motivated by growing Chinese economic influence and Russian geopolitical expansion. ... Indeed, in many Arab countries, citizens live in conditions of poverty and war, or are forced to emigrate, while other Arab countries are on the path to becoming failed states. Routes to recovery for these countries may take decades. In this context, future ambitions mingle with nostalgia and collective memories of the Cold War period in which the USSR was an ally of Arab regimes, a guarantor of the balance of power, a source of military and economic aid, and a supporter of the ambitious Arab quest for liberation.
John Cornyn Pledges to Sell Out America on Amnesty After Caving on Gun Control
en. John Cornyn (R-TX) pledged on Tuesday to sell out the American people by trying to advance amnesty for illegal aliens after striking a deal on gun control.
After Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) tapped Cornyn to negotiate a deal on gun control, he now promised to move forward on a deal on amnesty.
“First guns, now it’s immigration,” Cornyn told Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA).
“That’s right, we’re going to do it,” said Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ).
...
Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Cornyn have continued to push for amnesty with the help of Democrat allies, including Sens. Padilla and Dick Durbin (D-IL), the Senate Democrat whip.
“The only way that we’re going to get real progress is to have a four-pillar discussion — so immigration reform, DACA, border security and then I think asylum reform is pretty important, particularly with that’s going on with Title 42,” Tillis said in April.
“We’ve got a starting list. There could be some more. But it’s a starting point. I’ve talked to four or five Republican senators today. There’s a genuine interest in doing something,” Durbin said.
The Columbia Bugle @ColumbiaBugle
Looks like the Senate GOP is going into the Midterms with the same old garbage pitch they have every time: “vote for us and we’ll betray you a little bit less than the Democrats.”
https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1539425333870575616
Pedro L. Gonzalez @emeriticus
Over the last month or so, Mitch McConnell declared Ukraine "the most important thing going on in the world right now," the GOP advanced gun control, and now is talking about amnesty. They hate you.
https://twitter.com/emeriticus/status/1539456273858568192
Pedro L. Gonzalez @emeriticus
If you want a better future, you're going to have accept that the institutional Republican Party is as much your enemy as the Democratic Party, and red waves don't count for much when guys like John Cornyn are "on your side" (they're not).
https://twitter.com/emeriticus/status/1539449521779916800
Looks like the Senate GOP is going into the Midterms with the same old garbage pitch they have every time: “vote for us and we’ll betray you a little bit less than the Democrats.”
https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1539425333870575616
Pedro L. Gonzalez @emeriticus
Over the last month or so, Mitch McConnell declared Ukraine "the most important thing going on in the world right now," the GOP advanced gun control, and now is talking about amnesty. They hate you.
https://twitter.com/emeriticus/status/1539456273858568192
Pedro L. Gonzalez @emeriticus
If you want a better future, you're going to have accept that the institutional Republican Party is as much your enemy as the Democratic Party, and red waves don't count for much when guys like John Cornyn are "on your side" (they're not).
https://twitter.com/emeriticus/status/1539449521779916800
>>Having failed to anticipate the steepest inflation...
瓦伦斯早就说了「群体免疫」，现在如何呢？没有哪个医生讲「疫苗危险」了。「儿童腺病毒肝炎」这个词也已经不提了。
70、80年代早有人说「左派放屁」，现在如何呢？西方的大学、智库、研究机构里再也找不到能说这种话的人了。
同理，所谓「主流经济学家们」的现代货币理论就和点石成金没区别，但那又怎么样？今天还是要一边加息一边放水，一边限制中国奴工产品，一边「取消进口关税」。不管用的理由是什么，为了世界大同、减少温室气体、青少年自主变性、Drag Queen 进入校园必修、边境开放、党政军内性别（用词）平等，或者「保护民主制度」的乌克兰战争，能快点儿带来「死」的，都是好理由。
还可以再来一条更现实的，我在品葱说了「左与共必定合流」，不止一次，那又怎么样呢？能在当前的任何公开出版物中明明白白写出来吗？今天拜登还不是在各种语言的网络上无穷无尽的各色左傻疯们的欢天喜地中呼吁「尽快和总加速师对话、取消关税」？
更何况，前两天就仅仅一条对CNN某个主持人不利的消息，穷尽Google居然搜不到，这种玩儿法，共产党再活个五百年，能追得上吗？
>>很有意思但并不意外的是，对drag queen的态度是在文化战中区分保守派和传统自由派的标杆之一，在...
更加关键的一个：Kyle Rittenhouse 最终能上哪所学校。
以此时此刻的CNN例为开头，若是再也不能够通过互联网的「基础设施」获取左派们想要，且随时随地能够 cancel 的各种消息，那么从此以往，将只能把极权之下的生存策略扩展到一切公开媒体，只能从左派们关心的争斗内容、习惯的扭曲措辞、偏执怪异的认知角度和自相矛盾的人格行为模式之中去尝试「解读并还原真实」。
"Kyle Rittenhouse gets what he deserves." 正好是左们不可能放弃关心的一条，因为他们不可能控制得了自己对异己的憎恨。
Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ
The collapse of turnout in France
1958 -> 2022
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1538954442938146817
Ralph Schoellhammer @Raphfel
France is entering its Weimar Phase.
This might sound hyperbolic but something is going to give in a political system that is becoming increasingly ungovernable combined with a majority of the electorate that has no longer any interest in participating.
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1539500733921378305
Anne-Sylvaine Chassany @ChassNews
The great irony: Macron rose to the French presidency in 2017 as a bulwark against the far-right. 5 years later he is weighing a national unity government that would include it.
https://twitter.com/ChassNews/status/1539568607281168384
The collapse of turnout in France
1958 -> 2022
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1538954442938146817
Ralph Schoellhammer @Raphfel
France is entering its Weimar Phase.
This might sound hyperbolic but something is going to give in a political system that is becoming increasingly ungovernable combined with a majority of the electorate that has no longer any interest in participating.
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1539500733921378305
Anne-Sylvaine Chassany @ChassNews
The great irony: Macron rose to the French presidency in 2017 as a bulwark against the far-right. 5 years later he is weighing a national unity government that would include it.
https://twitter.com/ChassNews/status/1539568607281168384
Christopher F. Rufo @realchrisrufo
Gender ideology can only work by suppressing reality through language games: obesity becomes "body positivity"; sterilization drugs become "gender-affirming care"; troubled teenagers demand your affirmation as "ze, zir, and tree."
Break the language, break the spell.
https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1539608414745231360
Christopher F. Rufo @realchrisrufo
Conservatives should start using the phrase "trans stripper" in lieu of "drag queen." It has a more lurid set of connotations and shifts the debate to sexualization.
"Drag queens in schools" invites a debate; "trans strippers in schools" anchors an unstoppable argument.
Let the Left try to nitpick the phrase: we can say that "trans" is a stand-in for "transvestite" and we can show videos that are undeniably strip shows.
The trick is to shift the language in a way that is factually accurate and has a plausible claim to neutrality, but attaches a new set of connotations to the concept that shifts the debate in your favor. The Left is very good at this; time for the Right to start playing.
https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1537807543895998464
Christopher F. Rufo @realchrisrufo
We are no longer going to let the Left set the terms of debate. The truth is that politics is a form of conflict and rhetoric is its primary weapon. People like Damon would like politics to be low-conflict, low-aggression, and low-risk, which is why they always get steamrolled.
https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1538232677459009537
Gender ideology can only work by suppressing reality through language games: obesity becomes "body positivity"; sterilization drugs become "gender-affirming care"; troubled teenagers demand your affirmation as "ze, zir, and tree."
Break the language, break the spell.
https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1539608414745231360
Christopher F. Rufo @realchrisrufo
Conservatives should start using the phrase "trans stripper" in lieu of "drag queen." It has a more lurid set of connotations and shifts the debate to sexualization.
"Drag queens in schools" invites a debate; "trans strippers in schools" anchors an unstoppable argument.
Let the Left try to nitpick the phrase: we can say that "trans" is a stand-in for "transvestite" and we can show videos that are undeniably strip shows.
The trick is to shift the language in a way that is factually accurate and has a plausible claim to neutrality, but attaches a new set of connotations to the concept that shifts the debate in your favor. The Left is very good at this; time for the Right to start playing.
https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1537807543895998464
Christopher F. Rufo @realchrisrufo
We are no longer going to let the Left set the terms of debate. The truth is that politics is a form of conflict and rhetoric is its primary weapon. People like Damon would like politics to be low-conflict, low-aggression, and low-risk, which is why they always get steamrolled.
Damon Linker @DamonLinker
Christopher Rufo is a guy who periodically announces, “here’s the bullshit marketing gimmick imma use now to demonize some other people for political gain.”
https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1538232677459009537