右翼分子吐槽扯淡专楼
"The defense of individual rights has reached such extremes as to make society as a whole defenseless against certain individuals. It is time, in the West, to defend not so much human rights as human obligations.
On the other hand, destructive and irresponsible freedom has been granted boundless space. Society has turned out to have scarce defense against the abyss of human decadence, for example against the misuse of liberty for moral violence against young people, such as motion pictures full of pornography, crime, and horror. This is all considered to be part of freedom and to be counterbalanced, in theory, by the young people’s right not to look and not to accept. Life organized legalistically has thus shown its inability to defend itself against the corrosion of evil.
......
This tilt of freedom toward evil has come about gradually, but it evidently stems from a humanistic and benevolent concept according to which man—the master of this world—does not bear any evil within himself, and all the defects of life are caused by misguided social systems, which must therefore be corrected."
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Harvard Commencement Address ("A World Split Apart"), June 8, 1978
On the other hand, destructive and irresponsible freedom has been granted boundless space. Society has turned out to have scarce defense against the abyss of human decadence, for example against the misuse of liberty for moral violence against young people, such as motion pictures full of pornography, crime, and horror. This is all considered to be part of freedom and to be counterbalanced, in theory, by the young people’s right not to look and not to accept. Life organized legalistically has thus shown its inability to defend itself against the corrosion of evil.
......
This tilt of freedom toward evil has come about gradually, but it evidently stems from a humanistic and benevolent concept according to which man—the master of this world—does not bear any evil within himself, and all the defects of life are caused by misguided social systems, which must therefore be corrected."
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Harvard Commencement Address ("A World Split Apart"), June 8, 1978
1473 个评论
Transgender players banned from women's international rugby league
Transgender players have been banned from women's internationals while rugby league's governing body does further research on its inclusion policy.
International Rugby League (IRL) said it wanted to "balance the individual's right to participate... against perceived risk to other participants".
The IRL's move comes as several sports are considering transgender inclusion.
Transgender swimmers were on Sunday banned from women's elite races if they have gone through male puberty.
World Athletics president Lord Coe hinted to the BBC that the sport could follow swimming's example, saying it is set to discuss adopting a new eligibility policy and that "fairness is non-negotiable".
The IRL said it had considered "relevant developments in world sport" in coming to its decision to ban "male-to-female (transwomen) players" until it had completed research on its final inclusion policy.
Transgender players have been banned from women's internationals while rugby league's governing body does further research on its inclusion policy.
International Rugby League (IRL) said it wanted to "balance the individual's right to participate... against perceived risk to other participants".
The IRL's move comes as several sports are considering transgender inclusion.
Transgender swimmers were on Sunday banned from women's elite races if they have gone through male puberty.
World Athletics president Lord Coe hinted to the BBC that the sport could follow swimming's example, saying it is set to discuss adopting a new eligibility policy and that "fairness is non-negotiable".
The IRL said it had considered "relevant developments in world sport" in coming to its decision to ban "male-to-female (transwomen) players" until it had completed research on its final inclusion policy.
What Biden Gets Wrong About European Defense
...A recent Kiel Institute paper states that “in total, we trace €85 billion in government-to-government commitments from January 24, 2022, until June 7 … it is remarkable that the US alone has committed considerably more than all EU countries combined, in whose immediate neighborhood the war is raging.” In a different poll, 76 percent of Germans answered yes to the question, “Should Germany become more independent from the United States in its security policy?” The two plausible hypotheses from these trends suggest: One, the EU doesn’t see Russia as enough of a threat and knows Uncle Sucker is there to pay with enough flattery about the rules-based order. Two, the United States is failing to prioritize due to internal political dynamics, old-school Europe-first reflexes, and the massive blitz of the pro-Ukraine public relations lobby. Neither of those conclusions provides any optimism.
Partly, it is the Biden administration’s incoherence that is the problem. Biden doubled down on rhetoric expressing that NATO is sacred, instead of adding more pressure on the EU, in general, and Germany, in particular, to re-arm, as the previous administration did. Added to that is ideological dogmatism. A deepened European political and defense relationship will only be enhanced when Europe has fixed borders—not ever-expanding frontiers. Indeed, this idea of an “Open Europe” that is pushed by small states on the periphery and a commitment to an ever-expanding NATO and EU makes it difficult to strategize a common defense based on common interests and fixed funding. Ultimately, no amount of added expenditure would offset the unsustainable grand strategy of providing security across the globe, especially with rich allies freeriding. It is a strategy that risks overstretch, insolvency, and ultimately, collapse.
...A recent Kiel Institute paper states that “in total, we trace €85 billion in government-to-government commitments from January 24, 2022, until June 7 … it is remarkable that the US alone has committed considerably more than all EU countries combined, in whose immediate neighborhood the war is raging.” In a different poll, 76 percent of Germans answered yes to the question, “Should Germany become more independent from the United States in its security policy?” The two plausible hypotheses from these trends suggest: One, the EU doesn’t see Russia as enough of a threat and knows Uncle Sucker is there to pay with enough flattery about the rules-based order. Two, the United States is failing to prioritize due to internal political dynamics, old-school Europe-first reflexes, and the massive blitz of the pro-Ukraine public relations lobby. Neither of those conclusions provides any optimism.
Partly, it is the Biden administration’s incoherence that is the problem. Biden doubled down on rhetoric expressing that NATO is sacred, instead of adding more pressure on the EU, in general, and Germany, in particular, to re-arm, as the previous administration did. Added to that is ideological dogmatism. A deepened European political and defense relationship will only be enhanced when Europe has fixed borders—not ever-expanding frontiers. Indeed, this idea of an “Open Europe” that is pushed by small states on the periphery and a commitment to an ever-expanding NATO and EU makes it difficult to strategize a common defense based on common interests and fixed funding. Ultimately, no amount of added expenditure would offset the unsustainable grand strategy of providing security across the globe, especially with rich allies freeriding. It is a strategy that risks overstretch, insolvency, and ultimately, collapse.
Russia is sidestepping American oil sanctions
...What’s going on here? There are two factors to consider.
The first and most obvious is the extremely high price of crude oil. On June 21, Brent Crude opened at $114 a barrel, approximately 55 percent higher than this time last year. For major petro-states like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia, these are the good old days, when high demand and tight global supply produces record profits. Naturally, the more profits Russia earns, the more resources Putin will have available to finance his war of aggression and ensure discontent on the Russian street doesn’t get out of hand.
...
...the second reason why the EU’s oil sanctions aren’t having an immediate effect: Russia is reworking its entire oil distribution network. The Russians aren’t standing around; they’re creating new opportunities. Before the war, about 60 percent of Russia’s oil exports went to Europe, with the rest going to China. Now, the Russians are redirecting previously Europe-bound oil cargoes to countries in Asia, which are looking for the cheap and most reliable energy supply they can get. In May, Russian crude exports to China increased by 28 percent from the previous month, replacing Saudi Arabia as Beijing’s biggest source of the black stuff. India is receiving 760,000 Russian barrels a day, an exponential jump compared to previous levels, which were near zero.
...
American and European policymakers evidently fooled themselves into believing that cutting off Russian oil would be the beginning of the end for Putin’s war machine — or at least force the Kremlin to deplete whatever reserve funds they have left on the war. But the market has something else in mind.
...What’s going on here? There are two factors to consider.
The first and most obvious is the extremely high price of crude oil. On June 21, Brent Crude opened at $114 a barrel, approximately 55 percent higher than this time last year. For major petro-states like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia, these are the good old days, when high demand and tight global supply produces record profits. Naturally, the more profits Russia earns, the more resources Putin will have available to finance his war of aggression and ensure discontent on the Russian street doesn’t get out of hand.
...
...the second reason why the EU’s oil sanctions aren’t having an immediate effect: Russia is reworking its entire oil distribution network. The Russians aren’t standing around; they’re creating new opportunities. Before the war, about 60 percent of Russia’s oil exports went to Europe, with the rest going to China. Now, the Russians are redirecting previously Europe-bound oil cargoes to countries in Asia, which are looking for the cheap and most reliable energy supply they can get. In May, Russian crude exports to China increased by 28 percent from the previous month, replacing Saudi Arabia as Beijing’s biggest source of the black stuff. India is receiving 760,000 Russian barrels a day, an exponential jump compared to previous levels, which were near zero.
...
American and European policymakers evidently fooled themselves into believing that cutting off Russian oil would be the beginning of the end for Putin’s war machine — or at least force the Kremlin to deplete whatever reserve funds they have left on the war. But the market has something else in mind.
Six major cities on pace to pass historic 2021 violent crime totals halfway through 2022
Violent crimes are on the rise in six of America's major cities and set to outpace the already historic levels of 2021 violent crime.
Baltimore, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Washington D.C., Atlanta, and New York City are all on pace to break their 2021 levels of violent crime halfway through this year, with the nation's largest city leading the group, according to crime data reviewed by Fox News. New York City has seen a 25.8% jump in violent crime at this point in 2022 compared to the same time in 2021, despite seeing a small decrease in the amount of homicides recorded in the city.
Violent crime, which is typically defined as homicide, rape, assault, and robbery, had already been on the rise since 2020. Homicides have been one of the factors driving up rates of violent crime, rising 30% from 2019 to 2020 and another 5% between 2020 and 2021.
Violent crimes are on the rise in six of America's major cities and set to outpace the already historic levels of 2021 violent crime.
Baltimore, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Washington D.C., Atlanta, and New York City are all on pace to break their 2021 levels of violent crime halfway through this year, with the nation's largest city leading the group, according to crime data reviewed by Fox News. New York City has seen a 25.8% jump in violent crime at this point in 2022 compared to the same time in 2021, despite seeing a small decrease in the amount of homicides recorded in the city.
Violent crime, which is typically defined as homicide, rape, assault, and robbery, had already been on the rise since 2020. Homicides have been one of the factors driving up rates of violent crime, rising 30% from 2019 to 2020 and another 5% between 2020 and 2021.
A Woke Mandate for the Federal Reserve
President Biden recently promised in these pages not to interfere with the Federal Reserve. Yet last week he endorsed a House bill that would add racial equity to the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment. ...
...
The bill directs the Fed to include race in monetary policy, the operation of payment systems, and the supervision of banks and non-banks deemed by the Financial Stability Oversight Council to be systemically important.
...
Requiring the Fed to incorporate race into bank (and potentially non-bank) supervision would likewise contradict its duty to protect financial stability. Would the Fed reduce the capital that banks must hold against loans to minorities? Would banks be graded based on the number of loans they make to minority businesses?
Easing underwriting standards to boost minority credit and homeownership could cause defaults and foreclosures to spike in a recession, as happened during the last financial crisis. Democrats would then accuse banks of predatory lending.
Most banks are trying to increase lending to minority communities, yet the bill would require financial regulators to rate banks on diversity and inclusion. Minority-owned banks would be exempt from these exams and automatically get the highest rating. The bill also instructs federal agencies to move deposits to minority-owned banks.
President Biden recently promised in these pages not to interfere with the Federal Reserve. Yet last week he endorsed a House bill that would add racial equity to the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment. ...
...
The bill directs the Fed to include race in monetary policy, the operation of payment systems, and the supervision of banks and non-banks deemed by the Financial Stability Oversight Council to be systemically important.
...
Requiring the Fed to incorporate race into bank (and potentially non-bank) supervision would likewise contradict its duty to protect financial stability. Would the Fed reduce the capital that banks must hold against loans to minorities? Would banks be graded based on the number of loans they make to minority businesses?
Easing underwriting standards to boost minority credit and homeownership could cause defaults and foreclosures to spike in a recession, as happened during the last financial crisis. Democrats would then accuse banks of predatory lending.
Most banks are trying to increase lending to minority communities, yet the bill would require financial regulators to rate banks on diversity and inclusion. Minority-owned banks would be exempt from these exams and automatically get the highest rating. The bill also instructs federal agencies to move deposits to minority-owned banks.
Zelensky’s homophobia row reveals a divided Ukraine
A peculiar row has broken out in Kyiv over the role of one of Zelensky’s best-known advisers. Oleksiy Arestovych is a familiar figure in Ukraine and has developed a profile abroad, described as a ‘sex symbol’ by no less a source than the Economist. But when it comes to sex, he has some clear views. ‘LGBT people are deviant,’ he said on 19 June. ‘I sympathise with them, but I am against propaganda’.
Cue outrage, with KyivPride demanding Zelensky fire Arestovych for homophobic statements, ‘Such rhetoric from Ukrainian authorities is unacceptable if we want to be in the EU’. ...
...
The debate on LGBT rights hits a fault line in Ukrainian society – as it does in many post-Soviet countries. A poll in May showed just 24 per cent of Ukrainians support same-sex marriage, up from 4 per cent six years ago. This is one of the arguments against EU membership: that it would enforce social norms not accepted by the majority. Putin has sought to exploit this over the years, offering himself as a champion of conservative values.
The Ukrainian parliament this week passed the Istanbul Convention, intended to combat violence against women and domestic violence. This has triggered much debate on Ukrainian social media with some seeing it as a back door for gay marriage. The Ukrainian Orthodox Сhurch said liberals are acting ‘under the guise of combating domestic violence to introduce into Ukrainian legislation the ideological and medical concepts of “sexual orientation” and “gender identity” as legal terms to replace biological sex (women and men) in the legislation with gender’.
Before the February invasion, this was a tricky issue for Zelensky, who had personally positioned himself as a liberal. But some MPs from his Servant of the People party have sought to pass a law outlawing ‘homosexual and transgenderism propaganda’.
A peculiar row has broken out in Kyiv over the role of one of Zelensky’s best-known advisers. Oleksiy Arestovych is a familiar figure in Ukraine and has developed a profile abroad, described as a ‘sex symbol’ by no less a source than the Economist. But when it comes to sex, he has some clear views. ‘LGBT people are deviant,’ he said on 19 June. ‘I sympathise with them, but I am against propaganda’.
Cue outrage, with KyivPride demanding Zelensky fire Arestovych for homophobic statements, ‘Such rhetoric from Ukrainian authorities is unacceptable if we want to be in the EU’. ...
...
The debate on LGBT rights hits a fault line in Ukrainian society – as it does in many post-Soviet countries. A poll in May showed just 24 per cent of Ukrainians support same-sex marriage, up from 4 per cent six years ago. This is one of the arguments against EU membership: that it would enforce social norms not accepted by the majority. Putin has sought to exploit this over the years, offering himself as a champion of conservative values.
The Ukrainian parliament this week passed the Istanbul Convention, intended to combat violence against women and domestic violence. This has triggered much debate on Ukrainian social media with some seeing it as a back door for gay marriage. The Ukrainian Orthodox Сhurch said liberals are acting ‘under the guise of combating domestic violence to introduce into Ukrainian legislation the ideological and medical concepts of “sexual orientation” and “gender identity” as legal terms to replace biological sex (women and men) in the legislation with gender’.
Before the February invasion, this was a tricky issue for Zelensky, who had personally positioned himself as a liberal. But some MPs from his Servant of the People party have sought to pass a law outlawing ‘homosexual and transgenderism propaganda’.
>>President Biden recently promised in these pages n...
所谓「大音希声」，或者更明确地说，「命运裁决」就是指这种「没人关心，甚至所有人真真正正不约而同地别开眼睛」的时候了。
"Apparently, the economy NEEDS a collapse. Better sooner than later. And we have the SUCCESSFUL experience from last time."
就个人而言，我完全同意 The economy needs a collapse 的判断，在尚未开始用第一宇宙速度加息的时候，这话也早有人说过了。
---------------------------------
但这有了一个因为专心务虚而带来的务实急件：检查自己的资产安全状况，早做准备。
因为接下来的「美国经济大变局」倒数时段，恐怕是以「月、周」来算的 。
>>Apeculiar row has broken out in Kyiv over the role...
这该怎么说呢？
「纵然含羞掩面，半推半就，但 Britania Spectator 终于还是乘上了 Sam N. R. 的浪漫进步舟？」
joejoe锐评美国纳税人:
都是帮只会抱怨政府的贵物
都是帮只会抱怨政府的贵物
Replacing UK’s weapons stockpiles could take ‘years’, says head of armed forces
Returning the UK’s stockpile of weapons to pre-Ukraine war levels could take years, the head of the armed forces has said.
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, who took over as Chief of the Defence Staff in November 2021, said even replacing less sophisticated weapons sent to Ukraine could take “several years” due to constraints on the UK’s industrial capacity.
Answering questions from the Lords International Relations and Defence Committee on Wednesday, Admiral Radakin also said it could take “five to 10 years” before the UK could deploy a division with the capabilities to fight alongside US forces.
...
On June 16, the former head of the Royal Navy Lord West described the UK’s weapons stockpiles as “insufficient” and called for the country to start producing weapons “almost on a 24/7 basis”.
On Wednesday, Admiral Radakin acknowledged that the “rate of expenditure” of weapons in Ukraine and the “industrial capacity to backfill” had already become “a significant issue”.
Increased demand for weapons, both in the UK and Europe, along with Britain’s decline in industrial capacity over recent decades and current supply chain problems have added to those issues.
Returning the UK’s stockpile of weapons to pre-Ukraine war levels could take years, the head of the armed forces has said.
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, who took over as Chief of the Defence Staff in November 2021, said even replacing less sophisticated weapons sent to Ukraine could take “several years” due to constraints on the UK’s industrial capacity.
Answering questions from the Lords International Relations and Defence Committee on Wednesday, Admiral Radakin also said it could take “five to 10 years” before the UK could deploy a division with the capabilities to fight alongside US forces.
...
On June 16, the former head of the Royal Navy Lord West described the UK’s weapons stockpiles as “insufficient” and called for the country to start producing weapons “almost on a 24/7 basis”.
On Wednesday, Admiral Radakin acknowledged that the “rate of expenditure” of weapons in Ukraine and the “industrial capacity to backfill” had already become “a significant issue”.
Increased demand for weapons, both in the UK and Europe, along with Britain’s decline in industrial capacity over recent decades and current supply chain problems have added to those issues.
nobody:
literally no one:
WH staff: YOU take YOUR seat
literally no one:
WH staff: YOU take YOUR seat
西方民众支持乌克兰热情降低的原因之一是，主战派依赖的核心逻辑是各种版本的多米诺骨牌理论，可是又没给出令民众信服的论证，表明乌克兰这块牌倒了，北约某个国家会被砸到，把他们拉入战争。很多平民未必熟悉地缘政治状况，但这不妨碍他们对局势形成如下的大致感知：一、乌克兰是俄罗斯的核心关注对象，后者掌控其他国家的欲望要弱于对乌克兰的控制欲，因此入侵其他国家的几率要小很多；二、俄罗斯军事力量远逊于北约，进攻无异于自杀，一面说俄军在乌损失惨重，一面又说其会有胆量/实力进犯北约国家，是颇为矛盾的；三、核威慑仍然生效，足以阻止核大国直接交手。主战派精英如果不能给出一套narrative，说服相当数量的平民他们的感知是错的，就只能看着战争在公众视野中移向边缘。
自由国际主义和新保的多米诺骨牌理论家还得回答这个问题：假设他们说得对，乌克兰被俄罗斯控制意味着西方面临巨大的安全威胁、甚至战争威胁。然而二十年前基辅大致在莫斯科轨道上的时候，好像没人真的认为这个状况的长久持续是对西方安全的威胁。那么情况似乎是，经过左右两伙人二十年坚持不懈地拉拢乌克兰，把一个原先不是威胁的东西变成了威胁：他们把一块能砸到自己的骨牌拉到了身前。这不是很荒谬吗？
自由国际主义和新保的多米诺骨牌理论家还得回答这个问题：假设他们说得对，乌克兰被俄罗斯控制意味着西方面临巨大的安全威胁、甚至战争威胁。然而二十年前基辅大致在莫斯科轨道上的时候，好像没人真的认为这个状况的长久持续是对西方安全的威胁。那么情况似乎是，经过左右两伙人二十年坚持不懈地拉拢乌克兰，把一个原先不是威胁的东西变成了威胁：他们把一块能砸到自己的骨牌拉到了身前。这不是很荒谬吗？
两年前这个时候Joe正在炮轰川普China virus的说法，发誓自己不会把错误推到别人身上：
President Biden @POTUS
I’m doing everything I can to blunt the Putin Price Hike and bring down the cost of gas and food.
I led the world to coordinate the largest release from global oil reserves in history, and I’m working to get 20 million tons of grain out of Ukraine to help bring down prices.
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1539664642963898368
RNC Research @RNCResearch
Q: “Would you say that the war in Ukraine is the primary driver of inflation in America?”
Fed Chair Powell: “No. Inflation was high before, certainly before the war in Ukraine broke out.”
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1539631279594930177
President Biden @POTUS
I’m doing everything I can to blunt the Putin Price Hike and bring down the cost of gas and food.
I led the world to coordinate the largest release from global oil reserves in history, and I’m working to get 20 million tons of grain out of Ukraine to help bring down prices.
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1539664642963898368
RNC Research @RNCResearch
Q: “Would you say that the war in Ukraine is the primary driver of inflation in America?”
Fed Chair Powell: “No. Inflation was high before, certainly before the war in Ukraine broke out.”
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1539631279594930177
开战以来我读的英文报道里对基辅隐含的批评最强烈的一篇，受访者指责乌克兰政府对前方支援不够，把训练不足的新兵送上前线当炮灰，而且西部征募志愿兵时没有讲明义务，很多以为只需留在西部保卫家园的兵员在军法威逼之下上了东部前线，这些做法都导致了乌军巨大的伤亡：
Frustration grows in Ukraine as casualties spike and Russia takes more territory
KYIV, Ukraine — Russia’s invasion in February prompted a wave of public support for the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as millions of Ukrainians raced to help defend their homeland. Four months later — amid Russian advances and spiking casualties — anger and frustration over the handling of the war is swelling.
In interviews with Ukrainians who have family members fighting the invaders, many said they were upset with the military leadership for deploying inexperienced people to the front lines, and at times sending them into battle without as much as a medical or a psychological examination.
“I am ready to protest,” said Viktoriia Bilan-Rashchuk, 43, of Kyiv, whose husband, Volodymyr, a theater actor with no previous military experience, is fighting on the eastern front line in Sievierodonetsk. Last month, she said, she raised money to send his unit protective headphones — standard military equipment used to prevent hearing loss for soldiers firing off rocket systems.
“The government isn’t doing enough to support them. The longer this goes on, the more people will become upset,” Bilan-Rashchuk said in Ukrainian, speaking through a translator.
...
Despite the high death toll, Ukrainian officials have maintained that troops are well taken care of, with sufficient training, food, equipment and rest.
But as the war grinds on, what makes some Ukrainians especially angry is the lack of basic military equipment for those on the front lines. Some military families have been forced to organize donation drives to send medical supplies and military equipment to the front lines.
Svitlana Lukianenko, whose husband worked in information technology before the war but is now fighting near Sievierodonetsk, worries the Ukrainian military is not replacing the dead and injured soldiers fast enough, leaving her husband at greater risk with each passing day.
“The government needs to mobilize more people, but they also need to train them. There’s not enough training, and it’s a big problem,” she said. “That’s why we have such a high death toll.”
“We are angry for them,” Lukianenko added.
...
Luiza Dorner, 25, of Kyiv, whose husband is fighting in the Donbas region, said statements from Zelenskyy and other government officials have started to ring hollow. When she talks to her husband on the phone, she said, she can hear the fear and exhaustion in his voice.
“The reality is different from the official comments,” she said. “Every day has a high price.”
Igor Khort, who is in charge of training for the Territorial Defense Force, the volunteer unit of the Ukrainian army, said they only have the capacity to train roughly 120 people each week in Kyiv, the capital and largest city. New soldiers get just five days of training before being sent to the battlefield, he said.
Retired U.S. Marine Col. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, called five days of training “woefully inadequate.”
“The Ukrainians are going to have to come up with something. This is a marathon and not a sprint,” he said. For comparison, he said, Marines receive roughly 20 weeks of training before being sent into combat.
When asked whether it was responsible to send soldiers to the front lines without more training and preparation, Khort said, “They signed up themselves.”
...
The frustration with the government is particularly acute in the west, where many Ukrainians volunteered to serve in the relative safety of cities like Lviv. Some women have said their husbands joined the Territorial Defense Force with the expectation that they would serve in the district where they live, rather than on the front lines in the east.
Olena Zhabyak-Sheremet, 52, said her husband joined the force when the war started under the impression he would serve in the Lviv area working at checkpoints. But at the beginning of April, he was told to pack his bag to head east. If he refused, she said, commanders threatened to label him a deserter. She has not seen him since.
“No one even taught him how to shoot,” she said. “Out of the blue, he was sent into the thick of it.”
Zhabyak-Sheremet and other women in Lviv have written letters to government and military officials demanding answers as to why their loved ones were forced to leave their home districts, but she said they have not received responses.
She said the high death toll did not surprise her.
“They can’t push back the enemy because they have no training,” Zhabyak-Sheremet said. “And the result is heavy losses.”
Frustration grows in Ukraine as casualties spike and Russia takes more territory
KYIV, Ukraine — Russia’s invasion in February prompted a wave of public support for the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as millions of Ukrainians raced to help defend their homeland. Four months later — amid Russian advances and spiking casualties — anger and frustration over the handling of the war is swelling.
In interviews with Ukrainians who have family members fighting the invaders, many said they were upset with the military leadership for deploying inexperienced people to the front lines, and at times sending them into battle without as much as a medical or a psychological examination.
“I am ready to protest,” said Viktoriia Bilan-Rashchuk, 43, of Kyiv, whose husband, Volodymyr, a theater actor with no previous military experience, is fighting on the eastern front line in Sievierodonetsk. Last month, she said, she raised money to send his unit protective headphones — standard military equipment used to prevent hearing loss for soldiers firing off rocket systems.
“The government isn’t doing enough to support them. The longer this goes on, the more people will become upset,” Bilan-Rashchuk said in Ukrainian, speaking through a translator.
...
Despite the high death toll, Ukrainian officials have maintained that troops are well taken care of, with sufficient training, food, equipment and rest.
But as the war grinds on, what makes some Ukrainians especially angry is the lack of basic military equipment for those on the front lines. Some military families have been forced to organize donation drives to send medical supplies and military equipment to the front lines.
Svitlana Lukianenko, whose husband worked in information technology before the war but is now fighting near Sievierodonetsk, worries the Ukrainian military is not replacing the dead and injured soldiers fast enough, leaving her husband at greater risk with each passing day.
“The government needs to mobilize more people, but they also need to train them. There’s not enough training, and it’s a big problem,” she said. “That’s why we have such a high death toll.”
“We are angry for them,” Lukianenko added.
...
Luiza Dorner, 25, of Kyiv, whose husband is fighting in the Donbas region, said statements from Zelenskyy and other government officials have started to ring hollow. When she talks to her husband on the phone, she said, she can hear the fear and exhaustion in his voice.
“The reality is different from the official comments,” she said. “Every day has a high price.”
Igor Khort, who is in charge of training for the Territorial Defense Force, the volunteer unit of the Ukrainian army, said they only have the capacity to train roughly 120 people each week in Kyiv, the capital and largest city. New soldiers get just five days of training before being sent to the battlefield, he said.
Retired U.S. Marine Col. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, called five days of training “woefully inadequate.”
“The Ukrainians are going to have to come up with something. This is a marathon and not a sprint,” he said. For comparison, he said, Marines receive roughly 20 weeks of training before being sent into combat.
When asked whether it was responsible to send soldiers to the front lines without more training and preparation, Khort said, “They signed up themselves.”
...
The frustration with the government is particularly acute in the west, where many Ukrainians volunteered to serve in the relative safety of cities like Lviv. Some women have said their husbands joined the Territorial Defense Force with the expectation that they would serve in the district where they live, rather than on the front lines in the east.
Olena Zhabyak-Sheremet, 52, said her husband joined the force when the war started under the impression he would serve in the Lviv area working at checkpoints. But at the beginning of April, he was told to pack his bag to head east. If he refused, she said, commanders threatened to label him a deserter. She has not seen him since.
“No one even taught him how to shoot,” she said. “Out of the blue, he was sent into the thick of it.”
Zhabyak-Sheremet and other women in Lviv have written letters to government and military officials demanding answers as to why their loved ones were forced to leave their home districts, but she said they have not received responses.
She said the high death toll did not surprise her.
“They can’t push back the enemy because they have no training,” Zhabyak-Sheremet said. “And the result is heavy losses.”
正道的光 干得好啊
Jonathan S. Tobin @jonathans_tobin
For conservatives assigning credit for the historic reversal of Roe, along with 50 years of pro-life activism, Donald Trump and, yes Mitch McConnell -- who stonewalled Obama on Garland -- & pushed the nominations of the current SCOTUS majority to confirmation, made it possible.
https://twitter.com/jonathans_tobin/status/1540343186052218881
Pedro L. Gonzalez @emeriticus
Libs are enraged because culture *can* be downstream of political power. They've just been so used to being the ones imposing their beliefs on the country that a reversal is horrifying. Only they get to be "activists" and everyone else must be "neutral."
https://twitter.com/emeriticus/status/1540347904505823232
Zaid Jilani @ZaidJilani
GOP moving towards more family supports
https://twitter.com/ZaidJilani/status/1540343487492677633
Matthew Schmitz @matthewschmitz
The end of Roe is not the end, momentous as it is. The pro-life movement has never believed that the lives of the unborn should be up for vote. It has always been premised on the idea that they possess the right to life.
https://twitter.com/matthewschmitz/status/1540343352134090754
Lila Rose @LilaGraceRose
BREAKING: The Department of Homeland Security is communicating with Catholic Churches and pregnancy centers, telling them to be prepared for a "Night of Rage" by pro-abortion groups pledging "extreme violence" the night of the Dobbs decision.
https://twitter.com/LilaGraceRose/status/1540060171728084992
For conservatives assigning credit for the historic reversal of Roe, along with 50 years of pro-life activism, Donald Trump and, yes Mitch McConnell -- who stonewalled Obama on Garland -- & pushed the nominations of the current SCOTUS majority to confirmation, made it possible.
https://twitter.com/jonathans_tobin/status/1540343186052218881
Pedro L. Gonzalez @emeriticus
Libs are enraged because culture *can* be downstream of political power. They've just been so used to being the ones imposing their beliefs on the country that a reversal is horrifying. Only they get to be "activists" and everyone else must be "neutral."
https://twitter.com/emeriticus/status/1540347904505823232
Zaid Jilani @ZaidJilani
GOP moving towards more family supports
Marco Rubio @marcorubio
Today the Supreme Court correctly returned the power to regulate abortion to the states.
I will soon introduce a proposal to support mothers and their babies so that every child has a real opportunity to pursue the promise of America.
https://twitter.com/ZaidJilani/status/1540343487492677633
Matthew Schmitz @matthewschmitz
The end of Roe is not the end, momentous as it is. The pro-life movement has never believed that the lives of the unborn should be up for vote. It has always been premised on the idea that they possess the right to life.
https://twitter.com/matthewschmitz/status/1540343352134090754
Lila Rose @LilaGraceRose
BREAKING: The Department of Homeland Security is communicating with Catholic Churches and pregnancy centers, telling them to be prepared for a "Night of Rage" by pro-abortion groups pledging "extreme violence" the night of the Dobbs decision.
https://twitter.com/LilaGraceRose/status/1540060171728084992
Russia targeted Ukrainian ammunition to weaken Kyiv on the battlefield
...Most of Ukraine’s artillery pieces date back to the Soviet Union, meaning they rely on the same 122mm- and 152mm-caliber rounds that Russia uses. But outside of Russia, very little supply exists — in large part because Russia spent years targeting Ukrainian and other Eastern European ammunition storage facilities and suppliers before launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February. Russia has also taken other steps to acquire the ammunition or otherwise prevent its sale to Ukraine.
“Even if everyone gives us this ammunition, it will still not be enough,” Malyar said, adding that Ukraine uses more of the 152mm shells than are produced globally in one day.
Howitzers used by NATO and the United States fire 105mm and 155mm shells. Western countries supplied Ukraine with plenty of those shells but only a limited number of systems to fire them. Despite U.S. and European pledges to send more artillery, Ukraine still does not have enough to replace its old Soviet-era equipment entirely with NATO-standard weaponry.
A sort of shadow war is taking place for what few 152mm shells are available on the global market. A U.S. citizen helping to broker weapons transfers to Ukraine said he recently approached an Eastern European country to negotiate a purchase of artillery rounds. Officials in that country said they couldn’t make a deal, the man said, because the Russians had already warned that they would “kill them if they sold anything to the Ukrainians.”
The arms broker was interviewed on the condition of anonymity to speak frankly.
...
In 2014, after Russia first invaded Ukraine and fueled a separatist war in the country’s east, members of the elite Russian military intelligence unit 29155 sabotaged ammunition stored at depots in the Czech Republic, according to Czech authorities.
The following year, according to Bellingcat, a Britain-based investigative organization, members of the same unit used a nerve agent to poison a Bulgarian weapons executive, who told the New York Times he had been storing ammunition at the Czech facilities and had sold arms to Ukraine.
Russian saboteurs are also suspected of causing four explosions at Bulgarian arms depots from 2011 to 2020, according to Bulgarian prosecutors, who have said Moscow was aiming to disrupt supplies to Ukraine and Georgia.
Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, “appears to have had a campaign across Europe to try to suppress the supply of munitions to Ukraine,” said Michael Kofman, a Russian military analyst at Virginia-based CNA. “They were likely doing it with foresight.”
Ukrainian officials suspect Russian and separatist saboteurs extended the effort inside Ukraine in recent years, leading to a series of explosions at ammunition storage facilities.
...
“Conventional wars over time come down to who has the equipment, the ammunition, the manpower,” Kofman said. “This is why fights with powers like Russia are dangerous. They are dangerous because even if the Russian military performs poorly at the beginning, and they often do … Russia is a country with substantial resources.”
The Russian military has long emphasized artillery dating back to the Soviet era, maintaining substantial reserves of artillery shells, as well as production capacity. It is unclear how much of its ammunition arsenal Russia has spent in the war so far.
...Most of Ukraine’s artillery pieces date back to the Soviet Union, meaning they rely on the same 122mm- and 152mm-caliber rounds that Russia uses. But outside of Russia, very little supply exists — in large part because Russia spent years targeting Ukrainian and other Eastern European ammunition storage facilities and suppliers before launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February. Russia has also taken other steps to acquire the ammunition or otherwise prevent its sale to Ukraine.
“Even if everyone gives us this ammunition, it will still not be enough,” Malyar said, adding that Ukraine uses more of the 152mm shells than are produced globally in one day.
Howitzers used by NATO and the United States fire 105mm and 155mm shells. Western countries supplied Ukraine with plenty of those shells but only a limited number of systems to fire them. Despite U.S. and European pledges to send more artillery, Ukraine still does not have enough to replace its old Soviet-era equipment entirely with NATO-standard weaponry.
A sort of shadow war is taking place for what few 152mm shells are available on the global market. A U.S. citizen helping to broker weapons transfers to Ukraine said he recently approached an Eastern European country to negotiate a purchase of artillery rounds. Officials in that country said they couldn’t make a deal, the man said, because the Russians had already warned that they would “kill them if they sold anything to the Ukrainians.”
The arms broker was interviewed on the condition of anonymity to speak frankly.
...
In 2014, after Russia first invaded Ukraine and fueled a separatist war in the country’s east, members of the elite Russian military intelligence unit 29155 sabotaged ammunition stored at depots in the Czech Republic, according to Czech authorities.
The following year, according to Bellingcat, a Britain-based investigative organization, members of the same unit used a nerve agent to poison a Bulgarian weapons executive, who told the New York Times he had been storing ammunition at the Czech facilities and had sold arms to Ukraine.
Russian saboteurs are also suspected of causing four explosions at Bulgarian arms depots from 2011 to 2020, according to Bulgarian prosecutors, who have said Moscow was aiming to disrupt supplies to Ukraine and Georgia.
Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, “appears to have had a campaign across Europe to try to suppress the supply of munitions to Ukraine,” said Michael Kofman, a Russian military analyst at Virginia-based CNA. “They were likely doing it with foresight.”
Ukrainian officials suspect Russian and separatist saboteurs extended the effort inside Ukraine in recent years, leading to a series of explosions at ammunition storage facilities.
...
“Conventional wars over time come down to who has the equipment, the ammunition, the manpower,” Kofman said. “This is why fights with powers like Russia are dangerous. They are dangerous because even if the Russian military performs poorly at the beginning, and they often do … Russia is a country with substantial resources.”
The Russian military has long emphasized artillery dating back to the Soviet era, maintaining substantial reserves of artillery shells, as well as production capacity. It is unclear how much of its ammunition arsenal Russia has spent in the war so far.
终会有人继承着同样的价值观与意志 因为思想是杀不死的
>>开战以来我读的英文报道里对基辅隐含的批评最强烈的一篇，受访者指责乌克兰政府对前方支援不够，把训练不足...
虽然墙内那群挺俄派天天晒tg里乌克兰人怎么逃兵役 但说实话那些内容的确是很真实 各地无数人都被莫名其妙的整到顿巴斯当炮灰 还有人晒出自己亲人好友这辈子没接受过任何专业训练就被强征 然后变成骨灰的故事 现在乌军征兵确实是魔怔了
更不用谈那群人怎么让外籍志愿军去送死然后被俘虏当笑话了 然而英美根本没能力对俄军瞎整认定雇佣兵然后处死 做出任何实际行动 现在这个样子根本就是让俄天天打脸还还不了手 看着一个个战士被逼着下跪求饶然后崩掉 很爽快是吗？
https://twitter.com/__Inty__/status/1540364811334168576
🙌
这下利好蓝州生育率和产业发展了 btw我还是认为有人想趁中期选举前把各州人口提纯 反馈很明显在现任政府的糟糕经济状况下 这件事的重要程度直线下降 还没钱包没钱的恐惧感强
🙌
这下利好蓝州生育率和产业发展了 btw我还是认为有人想趁中期选举前把各州人口提纯 反馈很明显在现任政府的糟糕经济状况下 这件事的重要程度直线下降 还没钱包没钱的恐惧感强
最近看Lauren Southern关于非法移民的纪录片，突然想到这么一点：
一个社会系统的运作很大程度上依赖于一个自然流程——让由于错误的信息和不当的欲望而做出糟糕选择的人承担他们行为的后果。后果可能非常严重，足以激起他人的怜悯。好心人常常以博爱或者人权为由，试图订立一套措施来制止一类选择导致的悲惨遭遇，结果是扰乱了这个反馈机制，甚至鼓励了危害系统的相关行为，把本来只影响少数不幸个体的负面后果转嫁到全社会。中南美洲非法移民奔赴美国边境，不仅路途艰险，而且中途停留时可能面临经济困境，这些风险是阻止一些美洲人做出北上选择的因素。联合国以人权为名介入，给移民发钱，NGO组织发善心给移民带路，结果是越来越多的美洲人打消顾虑，加入非法移民大潮，冲击美国边境。
同样的逻辑也适用于其他问题。里根在“邪恶帝国”演讲里提到的abortion clinics的做法是另一个例子。顺便说，我一直觉得这一篇是里根最伟大的演说，在内容的充实和深刻上胜过柏林墙那篇。
很多情况下，明智的做法是不要阻止达尔文奖的颁奖流程，企图对不幸遭遇做一次再分配。
一个社会系统的运作很大程度上依赖于一个自然流程——让由于错误的信息和不当的欲望而做出糟糕选择的人承担他们行为的后果。后果可能非常严重，足以激起他人的怜悯。好心人常常以博爱或者人权为由，试图订立一套措施来制止一类选择导致的悲惨遭遇，结果是扰乱了这个反馈机制，甚至鼓励了危害系统的相关行为，把本来只影响少数不幸个体的负面后果转嫁到全社会。中南美洲非法移民奔赴美国边境，不仅路途艰险，而且中途停留时可能面临经济困境，这些风险是阻止一些美洲人做出北上选择的因素。联合国以人权为名介入，给移民发钱，NGO组织发善心给移民带路，结果是越来越多的美洲人打消顾虑，加入非法移民大潮，冲击美国边境。
同样的逻辑也适用于其他问题。里根在“邪恶帝国”演讲里提到的abortion clinics的做法是另一个例子。顺便说，我一直觉得这一篇是里根最伟大的演说，在内容的充实和深刻上胜过柏林墙那篇。
很多情况下，明智的做法是不要阻止达尔文奖的颁奖流程，企图对不幸遭遇做一次再分配。
https://youtu.be/4EbRtU4z-nU
像啊 很像啊
像啊 很像啊
>>最近看Lauren Southern，突然想到这么一点：一个社会系统的运作很大程度上依赖于一个自然流...
虽然从来没有读过里根的演讲，不过一看就顿时觉得熟悉。
「要么被神统治，要么被暴君统治」
“If we will not be governed by God, we must be governed by tyrants.”
—— William Penn
在好些年前，我个人终于理解了这句话所讲出的事实。直白得不能再直白了。想要理解这句话的，我推荐从逻辑和字面意思上着手，不需要任何多余的联想。
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还有托克维尔的那句："Not until I went into the churches of America and heard her pulpits aflame with righteousness did I understand the greatness and the genius of America. America is good. And if America ever ceases to be good, America will cease to be great."
要说 righteousness，哪怕如今的美国长老会（PCUSA），号称「继承了加尔文的教义」，也只能说光剩下表面了。
在布道的时候，能让人感觉到那种 righteousness aflame 的美国牧师，我在互联网上只看到过几个，当然你可以说我看得少。
黑人、亚裔、拉丁裔在内的各种移民，之所以很容易支持这类「进步和自由」的教会，原因和动机都不难理解，如果把他们视为「受害者」，或者完全接受他们「自视为受害者」的基本认知，那么要对此进行口头的，或者文字的批判性表述，就是不再可能做到的一件事。
然而，世间存在的逻辑无可改变，注定了这个（无视神之真实，而顺从自己心意）方向上的选择一定会有这个方向上的后果。许许多多的人愿意对其张开怀抱，但我个人，就连只用「心眼」多看一秒都觉得难受。
-------------------------------
信仰的逻辑很简单，既然是神造之人，神造之世，那么神永远都在人的身边，也在人之中。从这些途径一样可以接近神（当然也可以自主选择各种逃避方式），还能绕开如今各种流派造就的无穷漩涡，把注意力放在真正重要的东西上，而不是忙着「找敌人的弱点」，或是「防止敌人攻击自己的弱点」。战争也是为了生存和延续，如果把生存的目的变成了战争，认为敌人的鲜血比自己的生命更加重要，那么逻辑定会注定这种道路尽头的自我毁灭。
至于某些「后来的明白人」，或出于自大无知，或出于傲慢自恋，认为「争斗才是真理」，「用进废退」，或者「物尽天择，适者生存」，再或者「What doesn't kill me, makes me stronger」，其实都是眼睛里只容得下混沌，因而心中也只有混沌，都是同一类的自负。当然他们自己并不会觉得可悲，反而会在「蔑视大多数的蠢货」之余，深深地同情（如果还有的话）那些对他们表达出怜悯的「少数傻得出奇的蠢蛋」。
-------------------------------
最近这个冷清地方突然变得很热闹，仿佛从苔原一下子进入了热带雨林。
当真是「需要共同应对气候变化」的时代啊？
蓝州医疗企业股票 我劝你多买
为了应付将来可能的流亡生活，这几年学一门英语之外的语言是很必要的。鉴于有限的时间，究竟学哪一门还得慎重选择。我对局势发展的预期是，十年内英语国家会非常正当地把出身东亚洼地的人视为防范的对象。
Sen. Josh Hawley Predicts Dobbs Ruling Ends Corporatist-Social Conservative ‘Alliance’ in Washington
In a press call, Hawley stated that he predicts “a major sorting out across the country” which “will probably redraw some demographic lines around the country and will lead to impacts in voting patterns” nationwide.
He continued:
"I would predict the effect is going to be that more and more red states are going to become more red, purple states are going to become red, and the blue states are going to get a lot bluer. I would look for Republicans as a result of this, in time, to extend their strength in the Electoral College and that’s very good news for those of us who want to see Republican presidents elected and want to see the Supreme Court remain conservative, so I think this will have a pretty dramatic effect on American politics as we go forward.
"One other aspect of that that I think is going to be pretty significant: For years on the conservative side of the ledger, social conservatives have been told that they had to form an alliance with the corporatists, the neo-liberals, in order to get elected. You know we were told repeatedly: “Well, we got to make common cause because if you social conservatives want to have any chance of seeing Roe overruled you’ve got to have conservative judges and justices appointed, so you’ve got to go along with a globalist corporatist program.” I think that alliance is over today.
"There’s no reason for social conservatives to go along with a corporatist agenda that frankly never had much support in the country and that you see conservative voters increasingly turning away from. So I think the globalist-corporatist agenda that has been a free rider in the Republican coalition for years now, I think is in serious jeopardy today because what use is that wing, it’s really not even a wing because it doesn’t account for hardly any voters in our coalition.
"But I think you’re going to see a sorting out within the conservative coalition where social conservatives, cultural conservatives, will become much stronger and more prominent because frankly they are the ones who delivered here. This is their victory today. I think the skepticism you see in that coalition towards big business, towards the multi-national corporations, and all that that entails, I think that will become more pronounced as we go forward, and I look forward to that."
In a press call, Hawley stated that he predicts “a major sorting out across the country” which “will probably redraw some demographic lines around the country and will lead to impacts in voting patterns” nationwide.
He continued:
"I would predict the effect is going to be that more and more red states are going to become more red, purple states are going to become red, and the blue states are going to get a lot bluer. I would look for Republicans as a result of this, in time, to extend their strength in the Electoral College and that’s very good news for those of us who want to see Republican presidents elected and want to see the Supreme Court remain conservative, so I think this will have a pretty dramatic effect on American politics as we go forward.
"One other aspect of that that I think is going to be pretty significant: For years on the conservative side of the ledger, social conservatives have been told that they had to form an alliance with the corporatists, the neo-liberals, in order to get elected. You know we were told repeatedly: “Well, we got to make common cause because if you social conservatives want to have any chance of seeing Roe overruled you’ve got to have conservative judges and justices appointed, so you’ve got to go along with a globalist corporatist program.” I think that alliance is over today.
"There’s no reason for social conservatives to go along with a corporatist agenda that frankly never had much support in the country and that you see conservative voters increasingly turning away from. So I think the globalist-corporatist agenda that has been a free rider in the Republican coalition for years now, I think is in serious jeopardy today because what use is that wing, it’s really not even a wing because it doesn’t account for hardly any voters in our coalition.
"But I think you’re going to see a sorting out within the conservative coalition where social conservatives, cultural conservatives, will become much stronger and more prominent because frankly they are the ones who delivered here. This is their victory today. I think the skepticism you see in that coalition towards big business, towards the multi-national corporations, and all that that entails, I think that will become more pronounced as we go forward, and I look forward to that."
Norway: 2 killed in suspected terror attack outside LGBTQ club
Norway raised their terror alert level after a man killed two people outside a popular LGBTQ nightclub in Oslo on Saturday.
Police said that the alleged shooter was known to the police since 2015 as a suspected radical Islamist. The authorities are treating the incident as an "act of Islamist terrorism," the officials said.
The suspect "has a long history of violence and threats" as well as mental illness, authorities said. Acting chief of Norway's domestic intelligence service PST, Roger Berg, said the alleged shooter has been on the agency's radar n suspicion of membership "in an Islamist extremist network."
Previously, police confirmed two people were killed and more than a dozen injured in the shooting, which came just hours before Oslo's annual Pride parade.
Norway raised their terror alert level after a man killed two people outside a popular LGBTQ nightclub in Oslo on Saturday.
Police said that the alleged shooter was known to the police since 2015 as a suspected radical Islamist. The authorities are treating the incident as an "act of Islamist terrorism," the officials said.
The suspect "has a long history of violence and threats" as well as mental illness, authorities said. Acting chief of Norway's domestic intelligence service PST, Roger Berg, said the alleged shooter has been on the agency's radar n suspicion of membership "in an Islamist extremist network."
Previously, police confirmed two people were killed and more than a dozen injured in the shooting, which came just hours before Oslo's annual Pride parade.
我对Twitter上那些在用户名旁边同时挂着彩虹旗和蓝黄旗的人不能说没有同情，他们这半年来的焦虑和惊恐是目睹了2020暴乱之夏的保守派经历过的：一种自己熟悉并且多少感到安适的世界在眼前崩溃的感受。两边的无力感都有现实依据。现实是，自由主义（及其衍生物）在西方社会高层和基层都在继续拓展、获取更大的权力，与此同时，作为一套秩序，它在国内和国际都遭遇了前所未见的反扑。美国左翼要面对的是一个保守的高法、可能全面执掌政权的共和党、抵制进步派思想和实践的草根阶层、中俄对于自由国际秩序的挑战。右翼要面对全盘接受wokism的官僚阶层和商业精英阶层、被合法和非法移民持续涌入改变的人口结构、中国对美国本土利益和海外势力范围的侵蚀，等等。
两边都有一些观念和行为方式是太平年月的self-indulgence, 在接下来f-bomb, tear bomb, nuclear bomb一同现身的战争时代里要被丢弃。战争是残酷的教师，会用无法抵御的强力来纠正观念、规训行为。
两边都有一些观念和行为方式是太平年月的self-indulgence, 在接下来f-bomb, tear bomb, nuclear bomb一同现身的战争时代里要被丢弃。战争是残酷的教师，会用无法抵御的强力来纠正观念、规训行为。
加州支持堕胎 但是antifa却要叫嚣烧城市 主动出门惹事挨揍 左人脑回路属实难绷
Edward Feser @FeserEdward
1/6 Nature provides supports for pregnant women. They’re called fathers. When fathers fail there are extended families. Does government have a role to play when these don't suffice? Absolutely. But the *fundamental* way to help pregnant women is to restore marriage and fatherhood
2/6 Who is *primarily* to blame when pregnant women cannot find support? The men who impregnate and abandon them. It is not governmental policy, but men who refuse to do right by these women and their children, who are the *fundamental* cause of social injustice
3/6 Accordingly, the only serious remedy to the problem of aiding helpless pregnant women is to restore the idealization of fatherhood and the stigma against fornication, which entails a more austere attitude toward sexuality in general. It means repealing the sexual revolution
4/6 Yes, government assistance to those with no other recourse must be part of the solution too. But that treats a symptom, not the root of the problem. This is not “right-wing” politics but basic Christian morality and social teaching. Cf Aquinas, Summa Contra Gentiles III.2.122
5/6 It is also the Catholic teaching on subsidiarity. Yes, higher-level institutions must step in when lower-level institutions cannot handle a problem, but *only when and to the extent that* they cannot do so. And this is a matter *of justice,* not of mere efficiency. Cf Pius XI
6/6 When a lower-level institution like the family is not in a healthy condition, the fundamental duty of government is to do what it can to restore it to health, NOT to take over its functions. Government is a last resort, not the first, and must work to make itself unnecessary
https://twitter.com/FeserEdward/status/1540401939942256640
1/6 Nature provides supports for pregnant women. They’re called fathers. When fathers fail there are extended families. Does government have a role to play when these don't suffice? Absolutely. But the *fundamental* way to help pregnant women is to restore marriage and fatherhood
2/6 Who is *primarily* to blame when pregnant women cannot find support? The men who impregnate and abandon them. It is not governmental policy, but men who refuse to do right by these women and their children, who are the *fundamental* cause of social injustice
3/6 Accordingly, the only serious remedy to the problem of aiding helpless pregnant women is to restore the idealization of fatherhood and the stigma against fornication, which entails a more austere attitude toward sexuality in general. It means repealing the sexual revolution
4/6 Yes, government assistance to those with no other recourse must be part of the solution too. But that treats a symptom, not the root of the problem. This is not “right-wing” politics but basic Christian morality and social teaching. Cf Aquinas, Summa Contra Gentiles III.2.122
5/6 It is also the Catholic teaching on subsidiarity. Yes, higher-level institutions must step in when lower-level institutions cannot handle a problem, but *only when and to the extent that* they cannot do so. And this is a matter *of justice,* not of mere efficiency. Cf Pius XI
6/6 When a lower-level institution like the family is not in a healthy condition, the fundamental duty of government is to do what it can to restore it to health, NOT to take over its functions. Government is a last resort, not the first, and must work to make itself unnecessary
https://twitter.com/FeserEdward/status/1540401939942256640
Inez Stepman @InezFeltscher
“In search of freedom, I mutilated myself” is going to be on the tombstone of the West
https://twitter.com/InezFeltscher/status/1540841486169825281
“In search of freedom, I mutilated myself” is going to be on the tombstone of the West
REDUXX @ReduxxMag
A recently detransitioned gay man details the impact of the experimental 'affirming' surgeries he was subjected to as a stark warning on the empty promises of gender ideology.
"I realize now that in my search for freedom... I have mutilated myself."
https://reduxx.info/opinion-the-boy-who-shifted-shapes/
https://twitter.com/InezFeltscher/status/1540841486169825281
>>为了应付将来可能的流亡生活，这几年学一门英语之外的语言是很必要的。鉴于有限的时间，究竟学哪一门还得慎重选择。我对局势发展的预期是，十年内英语国家会非常正当地把出身东亚洼地的人视为防范的对象。
先来就此谈谈「局势」。
如果把「现在」视为「十年后再看的历史」，那么可以参考的例子就是俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜，以及「中国的国有企业」、「偷技术的中国人」、「中国人间谍」、「中国对西方的渗透」和「中国黑客」。
目前的「中国」条目虽多，但极少能够与美国的「草根选民」直接冲突，除非是那些甘愿扮演「先头犬」的黄左，对着主子示意的任何人都狂吠一通，目前的受害者已经包括 Kavanaugh 大法官在内。所以最适合参考的，还是伊朗、朝鲜与俄罗斯。
前两者固然是彻底的技术、经济、金融、文化、资源乃至关系网络的全面封锁，差别只在程度，毕竟它们和美国的重要联系几近于零，封起来容易。
然而当今中国大陆不同，「世界工厂」这个词，毕竟是有真正的货物，还有相应的贸易物流网络，乃至建立在这个网络之上的许许多多人的生计、生意，因而也包括许许多多个体的人生追求，事业方向等等具备相当价值和重要意义的东西。以美国目前的精神分裂状态而言，要预估到一年后都是不可能的。所谓十年就足够供应链「在中国大陆之外重新来过」，那是理想论中的理想论。相当程度的进展会有，但想过半都难上难。
俄罗斯，虽然与西方的联系，特别是与美国的牵扯，远不如中国，但西方企业和政界精英都有相当多的人把一生押在「我们不要对抗莫斯科」、「普京也是可以对话的」这等等玩意儿上。当然他们的无数支持者，附庸者，还有忠犬们，也都高举「不对抗，要对话」的大旗，高喊着要亲近莫斯科。俄罗斯的能源支撑了西方白左的乌托邦梦，当然也支撑起了普京的权力和俄罗斯的军力。同理，中国共产党的权力和党卫军的军力，也是多得益于美国白左的慷慨饲养。
如今，同样是这帮人和他们的支持者，大多在自己用户名旁边「同时挂着彩虹旗和蓝黄旗」。换言之，过去最「对俄和平主义」的是他们，现在最「坚决反俄到底」的也是他们。可以合理推论，换到美国，到时候反华、反中、反亚的，肯定会是最进步、最平等、最WOKE、最彩虹的那一群，当然也是今天最得台湾人「主流」欢心的那一群，因而也会是到时候最能「误伤台裔美国人」的那一群。
这种行为之中的逻辑和作为精神支柱的世界观基础何在？
当然就是他们一贯的「政治正确」逻辑：「我认定的就是宇宙的真理，反我者就是反全世界。」
只不过现在要反的对象多了一个而已。当然，他们自己是例外的。
俄罗斯作为国家如今受到的全面制裁，需要相当一段时间才能产生决定性的效果。目前，俄罗斯金融、企业、贸易、旅游都已经受到严重冲击。最近 G7 才想起来要禁「象征性」的俄国黄金。
润在西方的俄罗斯人（白手套）作为个体，一一受到专门针对，当然也不奇怪。但说起西方民间草根对俄罗斯人，或者俄罗斯裔移民的「特殊对待」，现在还看不到。反而是我先前提到过的「基督白又男」，目前仍然是「（左）人民的最大敌人」。
美国的这种状况，会持续到「美国人民」的观念真正转变为止。这种过程，可能快，但更可能慢。
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要说「对中国人的防范」，现在其实已经在美国的一些专业部门出现了，在五眼的政界也基本上形成了共识，凡涉及战略、安全、技术、投资（包括农业）等等方面，中国人已经是全方位的防范对象。如今仍然对中国人生冷不忌的，其实大多已经是那些WOKE专业，WOKE院系了。双方的原因和动机都简单，一个要钱，一个要润，而党国还需要继续统战，钱袋上的这个口子必须开。所以三方都是既愿意打，又愿意挨。（好一出 SM 的 Super Masterpiece）
然而只要先考虑一下这样的事实：即使是「威胁到自身的安全」，澳大利亚也依然保持了对扩大中国军力，包括造航母、造军舰都不可或缺的铁矿出口。
所以不难明白，除非习近平发起对任何一国（不包括俄罗斯、缅甸、朝鲜、阿富汗、越南、蒙古、老挝、哈萨克、塔吉克、吉尔吉斯、巴基斯坦）的战争，那么制裁的加剧会很慢，民间的「对华裔特殊待遇」也会很晚，甚至只以非常低的烈度出现。所以，十年是一个相当快的估计，非总加速师不可。
但不管怎么说，黄左们的蛋，已经确实地捏在了总加速师的手里。这种状况的实现，是通过他们自己的最舒服、最热情、最高兴也最「正确」的选择，通过和美国内斗的注定败亡的一方，也注定将是因此而最积极地排斥他们的群体彻底捆绑在一起。换言之，时间早晚而已。因为这是总加速师的「有生之年」行动，不确定什么时候动，但他一定会动。
既然少不了总加速师，那么现在谁要建议黄左们「好好做个听床师」，或是「大家一起来听床」，反而是有相当善意的劝说呢！
但长期待在这个冷清地方的人都应该明白：通往地狱的路是由善意铺成的。
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上述局势一言以蔽之，就是「乱」。
乱到了有份儿的 player 们自己都不知道自己究竟在往哪儿。比如某个坚持绿色能源的德国人大声喊着「发展再生能源对抗普京！」的声音还没落下去，如今已经开始对着煤电厂喊话「现在就做好准备，尽快准备投产」了。
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所以，想要「多掌握些语言」，我举双手双脚支持。
至于选择嘛，有人想学波兰语吗？可以读《猎魔士》原文小说了哟！！
还有人想学印尼语吗？可以做「数字游牧民」哦！！
什么？在这儿乱推荐会对真正想润的「反贼」有害？
反正脱不了支的到哪儿都没区别，终究会以自己最舒心也最高兴的选择和行动，回到「伟大祖国的怀抱」。别的我不能100%确定，这可是1000%确定。
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认真地讲，按照十年的一半来算，若是不把时间浪费在语言教科书上的五年的话，足够「掌握」两门语言了。
难度其实不是掌握，而是长久的维持，每天用来维持语言的时间是有限的。我个人觉得，「掌握」程度的语言，最多到四种，最好只有三种。
对我来说，「第三种」是迟迟未能决定。
Belief in God in U.S. Dips to 81%, a New Low
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The vast majority of U.S. adults believe in God, but the 81% who do so is down six percentage points from 2017 and is the lowest in Gallup's trend. Between 1944 and 2011, more than 90% of Americans believed in God.
Gallup's May 2-22 Values and Beliefs poll finds 17% of Americans saying they do not believe in God.
Gallup first asked this question in 1944, repeating it again in 1947 and twice each in the 1950s and 1960s. In those latter four surveys, a consistent 98% said they believed in God. When Gallup asked the question nearly five decades later, in 2011, 92% of Americans said they believed in God.
A subsequent survey in 2013 found belief in God dipping below 90% to 87%, roughly where it stood in three subsequent updates between 2014 and 2017 before this year's drop to 81%.
...
Belief in God has fallen the most in recent years among young adults and people on the left of the political spectrum (liberals and Democrats). These groups show drops of 10 or more percentage points comparing the 2022 figures to an average of the 2013-2017 polls.
Most other key subgroups have experienced at least a modest decline, although conservatives and married adults have had essentially no change.
The groups with the largest declines are also the groups that are currently least likely to believe in God, including liberals (62%), young adults (68%) and Democrats (72%). Belief in God is highest among political conservatives (94%) and Republicans (92%), reflecting that religiosity is a major determinant of political divisions in the U.S.
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The vast majority of U.S. adults believe in God, but the 81% who do so is down six percentage points from 2017 and is the lowest in Gallup's trend. Between 1944 and 2011, more than 90% of Americans believed in God.
Gallup's May 2-22 Values and Beliefs poll finds 17% of Americans saying they do not believe in God.
Gallup first asked this question in 1944, repeating it again in 1947 and twice each in the 1950s and 1960s. In those latter four surveys, a consistent 98% said they believed in God. When Gallup asked the question nearly five decades later, in 2011, 92% of Americans said they believed in God.
A subsequent survey in 2013 found belief in God dipping below 90% to 87%, roughly where it stood in three subsequent updates between 2014 and 2017 before this year's drop to 81%.
...
Belief in God has fallen the most in recent years among young adults and people on the left of the political spectrum (liberals and Democrats). These groups show drops of 10 or more percentage points comparing the 2022 figures to an average of the 2013-2017 polls.
Most other key subgroups have experienced at least a modest decline, although conservatives and married adults have had essentially no change.
The groups with the largest declines are also the groups that are currently least likely to believe in God, including liberals (62%), young adults (68%) and Democrats (72%). Belief in God is highest among political conservatives (94%) and Republicans (92%), reflecting that religiosity is a major determinant of political divisions in the U.S.
Dr S Maitra @MrMaitra
1. It shouldn’t be an alliance based on “Liberal Democratic norms”, but strategic interests.
2. It never was. Portugal under Salazar was in NATO, as is Turkey now.
https://twitter.com/MrMaitra/status/1541153273587142656
Nathan Carson @ndcarson
Wrong. The Liberal International Order originated from the geopolitical realities of the Cold War. Post-Cold War elites tried to supersize that order with globalization but it always relied on US hegemonic omnipotence.
That era is over. It’s great power politics from here on.
https://twitter.com/ndcarson/status/1541085058886471680
1. It shouldn’t be an alliance based on “Liberal Democratic norms”, but strategic interests.
2. It never was. Portugal under Salazar was in NATO, as is Turkey now.
Sarah Shoker @SarahShoker
I see that some NatSec dudes are crying because NATO allies criticized the Supreme Court decision.
This is an alliance based on liberal democratic norms. The U.S rolled back the clock on equality and you're shocked that the U.S continues to lose its global moral authority?
https://twitter.com/MrMaitra/status/1541153273587142656
Nathan Carson @ndcarson
Wrong. The Liberal International Order originated from the geopolitical realities of the Cold War. Post-Cold War elites tried to supersize that order with globalization but it always relied on US hegemonic omnipotence.
That era is over. It’s great power politics from here on.
Sarah Shoker @SarahShoker
I see that some NatSec dudes are crying because NATO allies criticized the Supreme Court decision.
This is an alliance based on liberal democratic norms. The U.S rolled back the clock on equality and you're shocked that the U.S continues to lose its global moral authority?
https://twitter.com/ndcarson/status/1541085058886471680
Elbridge Colby @ElbridgeColby
The very strong statements from several NATO governments on yesterday’s Court decision on abortion are truly striking. I’m not sure they fully appreciate the implication, as they implicitly but profoundly cut against the trope that these alliances are based on shared values. 1/
Leaving aside the merits of the decision (which I personally believe are very sound) and the fact that the decision returns policy to the democratic process, the decision reflects the deeply-held views of a very substantial proportion of the American population. 2/
This to me is yet further evidence that we must ground our alliances much more concretely on shared interests, not *putatively* shared values. That’s a much more solid grounding and much more in the American people’s interests. 3/
It’s notable that non-European and Canadian governments don’t seem to have taken such a public stand. (It seems, at least.) 4/
Also the Central and Eastern European countries don’t seem to have gone down this path. 5/
https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1540642735526486016
The very strong statements from several NATO governments on yesterday’s Court decision on abortion are truly striking. I’m not sure they fully appreciate the implication, as they implicitly but profoundly cut against the trope that these alliances are based on shared values. 1/
Leaving aside the merits of the decision (which I personally believe are very sound) and the fact that the decision returns policy to the democratic process, the decision reflects the deeply-held views of a very substantial proportion of the American population. 2/
This to me is yet further evidence that we must ground our alliances much more concretely on shared interests, not *putatively* shared values. That’s a much more solid grounding and much more in the American people’s interests. 3/
It’s notable that non-European and Canadian governments don’t seem to have taken such a public stand. (It seems, at least.) 4/
Also the Central and Eastern European countries don’t seem to have gone down this path. 5/
https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1540642735526486016
Dr. Jon Stanley @JonMarcStanley
Only a month ago support for this was high. Now look at the responses to these kind of tweets. A lot of people not only disagree with this, they're very angry.
This is money from the public's bills.
https://twitter.com/JonMarcStanley/status/1541018317615497217
The most liked comments under UK PM's tweet:
"I don’t think bragging about your support for those struggling in another country while ignoring those struggling in the country you govern is the political win you think it is, Mr Johnson."
"Taking our countries money to fund a proxy war you pushed so you can keep up excuses & blame to charge extra on fuel, energy & food costs to profit from while also loaning/funding Your War. Anyone who knows history can see exactly what is going on"
"No!!!! We cannot to to heat our homes and this war is looking likely to go on for some time. We can’t afford this, it’s our money, we worked for it stop giving it away."
"I'm more convinced than ever that is a huge money laundering scam. Money goes in without an audit trail, so where does it end up?"
"stop spaffing our tax money on this Boris. WE ARE NOT AT WAR."
"And yet won’t even sit down to discuss paying railway cleaning staff a living wage. Wow."
"You are giving away our tax money. Maybe put the feelers out and see if people want this."
Only a month ago support for this was high. Now look at the responses to these kind of tweets. A lot of people not only disagree with this, they're very angry.
This is money from the public's bills.
UK Prime Minister @10DowningStreet
The UK stands ready to guarantee a further £429 million of financial support for Ukraine.
This brings the total amount of UK loan guarantees to £1.3 billion – part of £1.5 billion of UK humanitarian support to Ukraine this year.
https://t.co/oR41FJvplg
https://twitter.com/JonMarcStanley/status/1541018317615497217
The most liked comments under UK PM's tweet:
"I don’t think bragging about your support for those struggling in another country while ignoring those struggling in the country you govern is the political win you think it is, Mr Johnson."
"Taking our countries money to fund a proxy war you pushed so you can keep up excuses & blame to charge extra on fuel, energy & food costs to profit from while also loaning/funding Your War. Anyone who knows history can see exactly what is going on"
"No!!!! We cannot to to heat our homes and this war is looking likely to go on for some time. We can’t afford this, it’s our money, we worked for it stop giving it away."
"I'm more convinced than ever that is a huge money laundering scam. Money goes in without an audit trail, so where does it end up?"
"stop spaffing our tax money on this Boris. WE ARE NOT AT WAR."
"And yet won’t even sit down to discuss paying railway cleaning staff a living wage. Wow."
"You are giving away our tax money. Maybe put the feelers out and see if people want this."
Auron MacIntyre @AuronMacintyre
Multinational corporation who couldn't find money for cost of living raises, health care, or maternity leave suddenly offering to ship their employees across state lines for abortions tells you pretty much everything you need to know
This will also 100 percent be used to pressure female employees into abortions
"We defended your right to choose and you decided to take 6 months off to have a child while the other woman in the same department took the ticket to California and got back to work? How ungrateful"
And the GOP will continue to enable this by defending corporations, cutting their taxes, and defending anti-family poltices
Also Elon may make this site better but he is not your friend
https://twitter.com/AuronMacintyre/status/1541030557437644801
Multinational corporation who couldn't find money for cost of living raises, health care, or maternity leave suddenly offering to ship their employees across state lines for abortions tells you pretty much everything you need to know
This will also 100 percent be used to pressure female employees into abortions
"We defended your right to choose and you decided to take 6 months off to have a child while the other woman in the same department took the ticket to California and got back to work? How ungrateful"
And the GOP will continue to enable this by defending corporations, cutting their taxes, and defending anti-family poltices
Also Elon may make this site better but he is not your friend
https://twitter.com/AuronMacintyre/status/1541030557437644801
连自己性别都搞不清的人这会倒开始支持女性了 矛盾一直存在 社会并不安全 这一天迟早会来 迟早要面对现实做选择 高院只是拉开了序幕
Supreme Court rules for former coach in public school prayer case
The Supreme Court ruled Monday that a former Washington state high school football coach had a right to pray on the field immediately after games.
The 6-3 ruling was a victory for Joseph Kennedy, who claimed that the Bremerton School District violated his religious freedom by telling him he couldn’t pray so publicly after the games. The district said it was trying to avoid the appearance that the school was endorsing a religious point of view.
"Both the Free Exercise and Free Speech Clauses of the First Amendment protect expressions like Mr. Kennedy’s," Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote in the majority opinion. "Nor does a proper understanding of the Amendment’s Establishment Clause require the government to single out private religious speech for special disfavor. The Constitution and the best of our traditions counsel mutual respect and tolerance, not censorship and suppression, for religious and nonreligious views alike."
The Supreme Court ruled Monday that a former Washington state high school football coach had a right to pray on the field immediately after games.
The 6-3 ruling was a victory for Joseph Kennedy, who claimed that the Bremerton School District violated his religious freedom by telling him he couldn’t pray so publicly after the games. The district said it was trying to avoid the appearance that the school was endorsing a religious point of view.
"Both the Free Exercise and Free Speech Clauses of the First Amendment protect expressions like Mr. Kennedy’s," Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote in the majority opinion. "Nor does a proper understanding of the Amendment’s Establishment Clause require the government to single out private religious speech for special disfavor. The Constitution and the best of our traditions counsel mutual respect and tolerance, not censorship and suppression, for religious and nonreligious views alike."
More than 1 million voters switch to GOP in warning for Dems
WASHINGTON (AP) — A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party’s gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.
More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.
But nowhere is the shift more pronounced — and dangerous for Democrats — than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump’s Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back. Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta and Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Raleigh, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; and Des Moines, Iowa.
...
The AP examined nearly 1.7 million voters who had likely switched affiliations across 42 states for which there is data over the last 12 months, according to L2, a political data firm. L2 uses a combination of state voter records and statistical modeling to determine party affiliation. While party switching is not uncommon, the data shows a definite reversal from the period while Trump was in office, when Democrats enjoyed a slight edge in the number of party switchers nationwide.
But over the last year, roughly two-thirds of the 1.7 million voters who changed their party affiliation shifted to the Republican Party. In all, more than 1 million people became Republicans compared to about 630,000 who became Democrats.
WASHINGTON (AP) — A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party’s gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.
More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.
But nowhere is the shift more pronounced — and dangerous for Democrats — than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump’s Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back. Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta and Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Raleigh, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; and Des Moines, Iowa.
...
The AP examined nearly 1.7 million voters who had likely switched affiliations across 42 states for which there is data over the last 12 months, according to L2, a political data firm. L2 uses a combination of state voter records and statistical modeling to determine party affiliation. While party switching is not uncommon, the data shows a definite reversal from the period while Trump was in office, when Democrats enjoyed a slight edge in the number of party switchers nationwide.
But over the last year, roughly two-thirds of the 1.7 million voters who changed their party affiliation shifted to the Republican Party. In all, more than 1 million people became Republicans compared to about 630,000 who became Democrats.
Ralph Schoellhammer @Raphfel
It's only a matter of time until the first governments will start crumbling too.
Maybe instead of sounding off on the US constitution European politicians should prepare their populations for a period of growing insecurity and poverty?
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1541400445515694084
Ralph Schoellhammer @Raphfel
Great point, @zriboua
- allow me one more:
A great power should never strive to be popular, but to be reliable as an ally and feared as a foe.
The world loves American pop-culture and Anti-Americanism simultaneously, but what really hurt Washington were decades of unreliability
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1541657408585482240
It's only a matter of time until the first governments will start crumbling too.
Maybe instead of sounding off on the US constitution European politicians should prepare their populations for a period of growing insecurity and poverty?
Javier Blas @JavierBlas
COLUMN: European manufacturing is crumbling under the weight of sustained high electricity and gas prices.
The months-long crisis that many industrialists penciled into their plans has morphed into a years-long problem. Closures loom | via @opinion
https://t.co/P8J25adqzg
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1541400445515694084
Ralph Schoellhammer @Raphfel
Great point, @zriboua
- allow me one more:
A great power should never strive to be popular, but to be reliable as an ally and feared as a foe.
The world loves American pop-culture and Anti-Americanism simultaneously, but what really hurt Washington were decades of unreliability
Zineb Riboua @zriboua
In terms of propaganda, it is true that China and others worked day & night on diffusing Anti-American sentiment at a global scale, but also important to acknowledge that a lot of it was also diffused by international US media too. Maybe infiltration, maybe self-sabotage.
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1541657408585482240
Ukraine war: Germans fear the end of prosperity
...Inflation is running at nearly 8%, compared to the same time last year, according to Germany's Federal Statistics Office. Consumer energy and food prices are up more than 38% and 11%, respectively.
That may still be manageable for drinkers of small-batch roasted espresso, but the lower you go on the income ladder, the harder it is to keep up.
"Of course, the consequences of the current crisis are directly felt," Markus Grabka, a senior researcher at the German Institute for Economic Research, told DW. "Low-income households are, for example, harder hit by rising energy costs than those with middle or higher incomes."
The food staples — cooking oil, flour, meat, milk, and eggs — are all up by high double digits. In all, food costs may be €250 ($263) more per person this year, according to a study by Allianz Trade, an insurer.
The added burden is heavier on those who already struggle to make ends meet. More than 560,000 retirees in Germany need a government top-up because their pensions are too low to get them over the poverty line. Rising food and energy costs take an even bigger bite out of their already smaller pie.
Homeowners and mortgages
Only 42% of people in Germany own their homes. Inflation has further dashed hopes of homeownership, as central banks rush to raise interest rates in an effort to rein in prices.
A housing crisis was already gripping many parts of Germany, but those who did manage to find something to buy were often rewarded with ultra-low interest rates. An era of nearly free debt, which pushed mortgages to 1% or lower, appears to be over.
In just the last few months, interest on home loans has jumped to over 3% — the highest in a decade — according to the mortgage advisor, Interhyp, and a further rise is expected. That adds tens or even hundreds of thousands of euros to a buyer's costs over the course of paying back the bank.
A perfect storm
...
Global supply chains were still catching up when the world's biggest wheat exporter, Russia, invaded the world's fifth-biggest, Ukraine. That has left grocery store shelves empty of flour and oil, which Ukraine also exports on a large scale. Meanwhile, disruptions to gas and crude supplies have shattered energy markets, which in turn add costs to everything that fuel goes into — from production to transport.
Germany has just triggered the second of its three-phase emergency gas plan — a historic first, which could lead to restricted industrial output and yet higher prices.
Energy price hikes: No end in sight
While economists debate how high prices will go and for how long — some are optimistic that certain ones are beginning to level off — the risk remains of a delayed impact on costs, as increases work their way through supply chains. They affect producers and wholesalers first, before passing on to retailers and consumers.
That means people may still feel the pinch even after exacerbating factors ease up.
"My concern is that we could have a very worrying situation in a few weeks or months," Germany Finance Minister Christian Lindner told the public broadcaster, ZDF. "We're looking at three-to-four, maybe five, years of shortages that we need to find an answer for."
...Inflation is running at nearly 8%, compared to the same time last year, according to Germany's Federal Statistics Office. Consumer energy and food prices are up more than 38% and 11%, respectively.
That may still be manageable for drinkers of small-batch roasted espresso, but the lower you go on the income ladder, the harder it is to keep up.
"Of course, the consequences of the current crisis are directly felt," Markus Grabka, a senior researcher at the German Institute for Economic Research, told DW. "Low-income households are, for example, harder hit by rising energy costs than those with middle or higher incomes."
The food staples — cooking oil, flour, meat, milk, and eggs — are all up by high double digits. In all, food costs may be €250 ($263) more per person this year, according to a study by Allianz Trade, an insurer.
The added burden is heavier on those who already struggle to make ends meet. More than 560,000 retirees in Germany need a government top-up because their pensions are too low to get them over the poverty line. Rising food and energy costs take an even bigger bite out of their already smaller pie.
Homeowners and mortgages
Only 42% of people in Germany own their homes. Inflation has further dashed hopes of homeownership, as central banks rush to raise interest rates in an effort to rein in prices.
A housing crisis was already gripping many parts of Germany, but those who did manage to find something to buy were often rewarded with ultra-low interest rates. An era of nearly free debt, which pushed mortgages to 1% or lower, appears to be over.
In just the last few months, interest on home loans has jumped to over 3% — the highest in a decade — according to the mortgage advisor, Interhyp, and a further rise is expected. That adds tens or even hundreds of thousands of euros to a buyer's costs over the course of paying back the bank.
A perfect storm
...
Global supply chains were still catching up when the world's biggest wheat exporter, Russia, invaded the world's fifth-biggest, Ukraine. That has left grocery store shelves empty of flour and oil, which Ukraine also exports on a large scale. Meanwhile, disruptions to gas and crude supplies have shattered energy markets, which in turn add costs to everything that fuel goes into — from production to transport.
Germany has just triggered the second of its three-phase emergency gas plan — a historic first, which could lead to restricted industrial output and yet higher prices.
Energy price hikes: No end in sight
While economists debate how high prices will go and for how long — some are optimistic that certain ones are beginning to level off — the risk remains of a delayed impact on costs, as increases work their way through supply chains. They affect producers and wholesalers first, before passing on to retailers and consumers.
That means people may still feel the pinch even after exacerbating factors ease up.
"My concern is that we could have a very worrying situation in a few weeks or months," Germany Finance Minister Christian Lindner told the public broadcaster, ZDF. "We're looking at three-to-four, maybe five, years of shortages that we need to find an answer for."
Every branch of the military is struggling to make its 2022 recruiting goals, officials say
Every branch of the U.S. military is struggling to meet its fiscal year 2022 recruiting goals, say multiple U.S. military and defense officials, and numbers obtained by NBC News show both a record low percentage of young Americans eligible to serve and an even tinier fraction willing to consider it.
The officials said the Pentagon’s top leaders are now scrambling for ways to find new recruits to fill out the ranks of the all-volunteer force. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks consider the shortfall a serious issue, said the officials, and have been meeting on it frequently with other leaders.
“This is the start of a long drought for military recruiting,” said Ret. Lt. Gen. Thomas Spoehr of the Heritage Foundation, a think tank. He said the military has not had such a hard time signing recruits since 1973, the year the U.S. left Vietnam and the draft officially ended. Spoehr said he does not believe a revival of the draft is imminent, but “2022 is the year we question the sustainability of the all-volunteer force.”
The pool of those eligible to join the military continues to shrink, with more young men and women than ever disqualified for obesity, drug use or criminal records. Last month, Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville testified before Congress that only 23% of Americans ages 17-24 are qualified to serve without a waiver to join, down from 29% in recent years.
An internal Defense Department survey obtained by NBC News found that only 9% of those young Americans eligible to serve in the military had any inclination to do so, the lowest number since 2007.
The survey sheds light on how both Americans’ view of the military and the growing civilian-military divide may also be factors in slumping recruitment, and how public attitudes could cause recruiting struggles for years to come.
More than half of the young Americans who answered the survey — about 57% — think they would have emotional or psychological problems after serving in the military. Nearly half think they would have physical problems.
“They think they’re going to be physically or emotionally broken after serving,” said one senior U.S. military official familiar with the recruiting issues, who believes a lack of familiarity with military service contributes to that perception.
Among Americans surveyed by the Pentagon who were in the target age range for recruiting, only 13% had parents who had served in the military, down from approximately 40% in 1995. The military considers parents one of the biggest influencers for service.
Overall confidence in U.S. government institutions is also decreasing, and that has hit the U.S. military as well. In 2021 the annual Reagan National Defense Survey, conducted by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, found that just 45% of Americans had a great deal of trust and confidence in the military, down 25 points since 2018.
The trend will most likely continue as the overall military shrinks and familiarity with service keeps dropping, say the officials. In 2021, an Army study found that 75% of Americans ages 16-28 knew little to nothing about the Army.
“This recruiting crisis is like a slow-moving wave coming at us,” said one senior defense official involved in recruiting and personnel issues. “As the military has gotten smaller and the public have gotten less and less familiar with those in uniform, it has grown. And Covid accelerated it.”
An expert on military personnel policy says that middle class parents, including those who are newly middle class, often encourage their kids to go to college before selecting a career, which hurts recruiting for enlisted personnel. “Changing the mind of parents is the really tough part, particularly if these are parents who worked really hard for their children to go to college,” said Kate Kuzminski from the Center for a New American Security. She noted that recruiting ads increasingly target the parents of potential recruits. “That’s where they’re trying to win the hearts and minds.”
Every branch of the U.S. military is struggling to meet its fiscal year 2022 recruiting goals, say multiple U.S. military and defense officials, and numbers obtained by NBC News show both a record low percentage of young Americans eligible to serve and an even tinier fraction willing to consider it.
The officials said the Pentagon’s top leaders are now scrambling for ways to find new recruits to fill out the ranks of the all-volunteer force. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks consider the shortfall a serious issue, said the officials, and have been meeting on it frequently with other leaders.
“This is the start of a long drought for military recruiting,” said Ret. Lt. Gen. Thomas Spoehr of the Heritage Foundation, a think tank. He said the military has not had such a hard time signing recruits since 1973, the year the U.S. left Vietnam and the draft officially ended. Spoehr said he does not believe a revival of the draft is imminent, but “2022 is the year we question the sustainability of the all-volunteer force.”
The pool of those eligible to join the military continues to shrink, with more young men and women than ever disqualified for obesity, drug use or criminal records. Last month, Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville testified before Congress that only 23% of Americans ages 17-24 are qualified to serve without a waiver to join, down from 29% in recent years.
An internal Defense Department survey obtained by NBC News found that only 9% of those young Americans eligible to serve in the military had any inclination to do so, the lowest number since 2007.
The survey sheds light on how both Americans’ view of the military and the growing civilian-military divide may also be factors in slumping recruitment, and how public attitudes could cause recruiting struggles for years to come.
More than half of the young Americans who answered the survey — about 57% — think they would have emotional or psychological problems after serving in the military. Nearly half think they would have physical problems.
“They think they’re going to be physically or emotionally broken after serving,” said one senior U.S. military official familiar with the recruiting issues, who believes a lack of familiarity with military service contributes to that perception.
Among Americans surveyed by the Pentagon who were in the target age range for recruiting, only 13% had parents who had served in the military, down from approximately 40% in 1995. The military considers parents one of the biggest influencers for service.
Overall confidence in U.S. government institutions is also decreasing, and that has hit the U.S. military as well. In 2021 the annual Reagan National Defense Survey, conducted by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, found that just 45% of Americans had a great deal of trust and confidence in the military, down 25 points since 2018.
The trend will most likely continue as the overall military shrinks and familiarity with service keeps dropping, say the officials. In 2021, an Army study found that 75% of Americans ages 16-28 knew little to nothing about the Army.
“This recruiting crisis is like a slow-moving wave coming at us,” said one senior defense official involved in recruiting and personnel issues. “As the military has gotten smaller and the public have gotten less and less familiar with those in uniform, it has grown. And Covid accelerated it.”
An expert on military personnel policy says that middle class parents, including those who are newly middle class, often encourage their kids to go to college before selecting a career, which hurts recruiting for enlisted personnel. “Changing the mind of parents is the really tough part, particularly if these are parents who worked really hard for their children to go to college,” said Kate Kuzminski from the Center for a New American Security. She noted that recruiting ads increasingly target the parents of potential recruits. “That’s where they’re trying to win the hearts and minds.”
>>Every branch of the U.S. military is struggling to...
美国年轻人参军意愿的减弱可以从不同层面找原因，比如：
对军旅生活的后果顾虑增加：认为在军队的经历会给他们造成心理和情感的负担，认为政府和社会对老兵待遇不佳，等等；
对美国军队的作用和地位不再认同：认为其过多参与无益的、甚至不义的对外干涉，认为其维持的国际体系不值得为之献身，或者从进步派的角度认为其是落后势力的温床，等等；
对美国不再抱有希望：认为其是腐朽到不值得保卫的国家
不论那个层面的原因起了更大作用，我觉得都在印证这样一个看法：一种治理上的良好状态——例如民主政体有足够的意愿自卫——很多时候依赖于一个纯真的视野。这个视野不排除幻觉和神话的成分，因此未必完全真实，但它是维持良好秩序的必要因素。必须有足够多的年轻人纯真到相信有一些价值值得自己冒着生命危险来捍卫，相信这样的献身是一个人高贵品性的标志，募兵制才不会有兵员短缺的困境。败坏纯真的可以是严酷的现实——比如战争的挫败、老兵的遭遇——也可以是荒诞的幻觉——比如进步派对军队和美国本身的道德要求。对一群由纯真变得世故，年方弱冠就学会了利益精算的民众，统治的方式只能随之改变，放弃全面募兵制可能是变化之一——政体的质料和形式相互塑形。两者的互动从长远看也许有一个注定的方向，导向犬儒主义/精致利己主义的普泛化，因为流于世故容易，重归纯真困难。
感觉有种趋势越来越明显了 有人想把自己的潜在选民进行再分配 让别的票仓州里不明显没优势的票数来到更有价值的地方 鼓励人们进行脚步移动 吸引人进行选择 当初看到人口从蓝州流出进入红州 房屋交易增大 疫情政策 企业裁员也跟着再迁移的时候 早该明白这个意图了 佛州注册共和党人反超 德州边境 加州纽约加速流逝人口及企业 两方的政策都在加剧这一进行 价值观的完全对立并开始新时代的开端 只希望能继续加快下去迎接新秩序
https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2022/05/new-yorkers-and-californians-flock-florida
https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2022/05/new-yorkers-and-californians-flock-florida
>>美国年轻人参军意愿的减弱可以从不同层面找原因，比如：对军旅生活的后果顾虑增加：认为在军队的经历会给他...
百年成树，一朝成材。
千年文明，堕落却最多只需要一个世纪。
生命的历程不可逆转，就像时间不可逆转。
对美国的走向及其目的地，基本上已无疑问：如今再问「何日恢复灯塔明光」已经没意义了，虽然持有这种信念的人会在接下来的过程中，如同新星一般闪耀。
有机会去冒险的，大可以庆幸自己赶上了黄金时代，没机会的，就只能看戏了。
如今我对历史和命运的问题是，美国的这个过程能有多快（慢）？
>>感觉有种趋势越来越明显了 有人想把自己的潜在选民进行再分配 让别的票仓州里不明显没优势的票数来到更有...
Gerrymandering，这可是民主党的老祖宗「民主共和党」的老活计了。
虽然现在早就过了专利保护期。大家能用就要用。
今天看到的消息：土耳其撤销否决，为芬兰与瑞典加入北约去除障碍
当然了，有些「不太关键的东西」VOA 不太好意思讲，那就是的「人权」。
而且不只是VOA，各种媒体都不再提了。包括「纽约时报」在内。
当然，那些即将上飞机直达安卡拉的「投名状」们，更是不能让人想起来，它们还有「人权」。
各位进步又平等的WOKE「清新」们，这下子怎么办呢？抗议？呼吁？文章？街头演说？来一场「零元购」？？
---------------------------------
无聊又浪费时间的东西，点到即可。
这说明了一件事：人权的确高于主权，这是绝对的政治正确，但是战略安全高于人权，那个领域没有「正确」这回事，只有「要」和「不要」。而能够做战略安全选择的，是主权者，所以×&%%%￥@（……省略十万万字）
若是依然对「人权」充满信心，依然坚定地要走「人权」路线，那么从实际的角度考虑，请把分割线之前的无聊内容也加入考虑。
这是为了你「自身的人权状态」考虑。
「真正想要做点儿事」，而不是「以飞蛾为榜样，只知追逐火光」的人，不分左右前后上下，应该从现在起把约翰·亚当斯的话记在心里：
在所有的 humanities 之中，战争乃是「最诚实」的 human conduct，想要真正了解人类，进而把握自己的命运（起码知道什么可以追求，什么不可以，从而更好地做选择），那么最好学会通过战争这一面能驱逐所有幻象的「真实之镜」去看现实。
再重复一遍：「为了自身的人权状态」好。
但如果那些「投名状」还有点儿「人权 」之外的「人脑子」的话，当苏丹说要「否决瑞典、芬兰申请」的时候，就应该拿出自己的bug-out bag 立即买机票跑路了（坐船来不及的），而且会挑选「NATO」之外的国，比如「俄罗斯」，或者所罗门群岛。
---------------------------------
以上这些东西，是不能出现在任何教科书中的。
而且写出来也没用，奴隶是大多数不相信任何看不见摸不着的东西，也不具备真正「自己能用」的知识的人类成为「社会人」的唯一「能够得着」的选择。当这个「坏主子」不能满足需要，能够填补这一空洞的，只能是下一个「好主子」。只有这样，才有行动力，才有行动意愿，因为「靠自己」是「绝对不行」的。
任何真实，对其无意义。
为啥要写出来？
当然是 exercise my freedom!!
讲这话的「进步觉青」一般都在吸麻磕粉玩儿 Orgy ，咱这种爱好，相较之下不是健康多了，也刺激多了吗？
当然，一发现这种内容就「严重生理不适」的，劳请不要看，这也是为了「自己的人权状态」好。
---------------------------------
对了，还有一点。
人权界的「童话天国」瑞典，从此开始「顺水推舟」走向排穆，也是可以预期的了。
斯托尔滕贝格说，协议条款涉及瑞典就土耳其引渡激进分子的要求加大努力，并修改瑞典和芬兰的法律，以强化两国对待这些激进分子的做法。
斯托尔滕贝格说，瑞典和芬兰将取消向土耳其出售武器的限制。
土耳其之前对瑞典包庇安卡拉方面所说的库尔德工人党激进分子表示了严重关切。被取缔的库工党1994年对土耳其政府展开了武装斗争。斯德哥尔摩方面否认这样的指控。
土耳其总统府的声明说，星期二达成的四方协议意味着“在打击库工党及其分支方面与土耳其全面合作”。
声明还说，瑞典和芬兰“在打击一切形式的恐怖主义方面展示与土耳其的团结”。
…………
拜登在北约峰会期间将与埃尔多安会晤。埃尔多安在前往马德里之前说，他将推动拜登批准土耳其购买F-16战斗机的方案。
土耳其因为从俄罗斯购买了S-400防空系统而导致美国对其实施制裁。埃尔多安说，他将与拜登讨论此事以及来自华盛顿的现代化套件和其它双边议题。
当然了，有些「不太关键的东西」VOA 不太好意思讲，那就是的「人权」。
而且不只是VOA，各种媒体都不再提了。包括「纽约时报」在内。
当然，那些即将上飞机直达安卡拉的「投名状」们，更是不能让人想起来，它们还有「人权」。
各位进步又平等的WOKE「清新」们，这下子怎么办呢？抗议？呼吁？文章？街头演说？来一场「零元购」？？
---------------------------------
无聊又浪费时间的东西，点到即可。
这说明了一件事：人权的确高于主权，这是绝对的政治正确，但是战略安全高于人权，那个领域没有「正确」这回事，只有「要」和「不要」。而能够做战略安全选择的，是主权者，所以×&%%%￥@（……省略十万万字）
若是依然对「人权」充满信心，依然坚定地要走「人权」路线，那么从实际的角度考虑，请把分割线之前的无聊内容也加入考虑。
这是为了你「自身的人权状态」考虑。
「真正想要做点儿事」，而不是「以飞蛾为榜样，只知追逐火光」的人，不分左右前后上下，应该从现在起把约翰·亚当斯的话记在心里：
I could fill Volumes with Descriptions of Temples and Palaces, Paintings, Sculptures, Tapestry, Porcelaine, etc. etc. etc. -- if I could have time. But I could not do this without neglecting my duty. The Science of Government it is my Duty to study, more than all other Studies Sciences: the Art of Legislation and Administration and Negotiation, ought to take Place, indeed to exclude in a manner all other Arts. I must study Politicks and War that my sons may have liberty to study Painting and Poetry Mathematicks and Philosophy. My sons ought to study Mathematicks and Philosophy, Geography, natural History, Naval Architecture, navigation, Commerce and Agriculture, in order to give their Children a right to study Painting, Poetry, Musick, Architecture, Statuary, Tapestry and Porcelaine.
在所有的 humanities 之中，战争乃是「最诚实」的 human conduct，想要真正了解人类，进而把握自己的命运（起码知道什么可以追求，什么不可以，从而更好地做选择），那么最好学会通过战争这一面能驱逐所有幻象的「真实之镜」去看现实。
再重复一遍：「为了自身的人权状态」好。
但如果那些「投名状」还有点儿「人权 」之外的「人脑子」的话，当苏丹说要「否决瑞典、芬兰申请」的时候，就应该拿出自己的bug-out bag 立即买机票跑路了（坐船来不及的），而且会挑选「NATO」之外的国，比如「俄罗斯」，或者所罗门群岛。
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以上这些东西，是不能出现在任何教科书中的。
而且写出来也没用，奴隶是大多数不相信任何看不见摸不着的东西，也不具备真正「自己能用」的知识的人类成为「社会人」的唯一「能够得着」的选择。当这个「坏主子」不能满足需要，能够填补这一空洞的，只能是下一个「好主子」。只有这样，才有行动力，才有行动意愿，因为「靠自己」是「绝对不行」的。
任何真实，对其无意义。
为啥要写出来？
当然是 exercise my freedom!!
讲这话的「进步觉青」一般都在吸麻磕粉玩儿 Orgy ，咱这种爱好，相较之下不是健康多了，也刺激多了吗？
当然，一发现这种内容就「严重生理不适」的，劳请不要看，这也是为了「自己的人权状态」好。
---------------------------------
对了，还有一点。
人权界的「童话天国」瑞典，从此开始「顺水推舟」走向排穆，也是可以预期的了。
Boris Ryvkin @BRyvkin
I said from the start that America’s goal in aiding Ukraine was to create the conditions for our stepping back from Europe to conserve resources and prioritize other theaters, and for the Europeans to come to terms on a new security regime. Biden is doing the exact opposite.
https://twitter.com/BRyvkin/status/1542225336963923970
Boris Ryvkin @BRyvkin
Half of Europe is, proportionately, barely stepping up in actionable military aid to Ukraine w/ no prospect of this changing near term. Countries in the other half are sending proportionately more aid than the US. Biden’s almost asking the former to not do more. Why bother?
https://twitter.com/BRyvkin/status/1542229478365175808
Boris Ryvkin @BRyvkin
America’s only strategic rival is China. Asia-Pacific is the operational theater of the present and the future. We need to concentrate our overstretched resources there and let the Europeans prioritize European security. Why can’t a US Administration just publicly state this?
Only nine of NATO’s members, despite the Ukraine War, are meeting the 2% GDP defense spending commitment made almost a decade ago. There needs to be a new European security regime established in tandem or possibly overlapping w/ a smaller, more aligned NATO alternative.
The status quo isn’t working and enough is enough. This doesn’t advance our national interests and serves mainly to reassure one half of Europe against its growing distrust for the other half. Exactly the outcome we should have tried to avoid.
https://twitter.com/BRyvkin/status/1542141854032052226
I said from the start that America’s goal in aiding Ukraine was to create the conditions for our stepping back from Europe to conserve resources and prioritize other theaters, and for the Europeans to come to terms on a new security regime. Biden is doing the exact opposite.
https://twitter.com/BRyvkin/status/1542225336963923970
Boris Ryvkin @BRyvkin
Half of Europe is, proportionately, barely stepping up in actionable military aid to Ukraine w/ no prospect of this changing near term. Countries in the other half are sending proportionately more aid than the US. Biden’s almost asking the former to not do more. Why bother?
https://twitter.com/BRyvkin/status/1542229478365175808
Boris Ryvkin @BRyvkin
America’s only strategic rival is China. Asia-Pacific is the operational theater of the present and the future. We need to concentrate our overstretched resources there and let the Europeans prioritize European security. Why can’t a US Administration just publicly state this?
Disclose.tv @disclosetv
NOW - Biden: US to send more land, naval, and aerial forces to Europe.
Only nine of NATO’s members, despite the Ukraine War, are meeting the 2% GDP defense spending commitment made almost a decade ago. There needs to be a new European security regime established in tandem or possibly overlapping w/ a smaller, more aligned NATO alternative.
The status quo isn’t working and enough is enough. This doesn’t advance our national interests and serves mainly to reassure one half of Europe against its growing distrust for the other half. Exactly the outcome we should have tried to avoid.
https://twitter.com/BRyvkin/status/1542141854032052226
Tulsi Gabbard @TulsiGabbard
(1/6) Every time this Admin has been asked what the goal of our war with Russia is, using Ukrainians as our proxy, (i.e. how will we know when victory is achieved?) they’ve dodged the question by declaring the president of Ukraine will make that decision & the U.S. will follow...
(2/6) ...his leadership. So, the most important foreign policy position our country has faced in the last 60 years is not being made by US Congress or an American president, but by the leader of a foreign country.
(3/6) “At the end of the day, what this looks like, what end state looks like will be defined by the Ukrainians and not by us. And so we'll leave that up to President Zelenskyy and his leadership to talk about how this transitions.” —Lloyd Austin (Sec of Defense), May 23, 2022
(4/6) “The end state is defined by the political leadership, and in this case, President Zelenskyy is going to define the end state inside the boundaries of Ukraine.” —General Milley (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff), May 23, 2022
(5/6) “President Zelensky is the democratically elected president of a sovereign nation, and only he can decide what victory is going to look like and how he wants to achieve it.” —John F. Kirby (Pentagon press secretary), April 29, 2022
(6/6) If handing over American sovereignty to the leader of another country isn’t treason, what is?
https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1542081599965040640
(1/6) Every time this Admin has been asked what the goal of our war with Russia is, using Ukrainians as our proxy, (i.e. how will we know when victory is achieved?) they’ve dodged the question by declaring the president of Ukraine will make that decision & the U.S. will follow...
(2/6) ...his leadership. So, the most important foreign policy position our country has faced in the last 60 years is not being made by US Congress or an American president, but by the leader of a foreign country.
(3/6) “At the end of the day, what this looks like, what end state looks like will be defined by the Ukrainians and not by us. And so we'll leave that up to President Zelenskyy and his leadership to talk about how this transitions.” —Lloyd Austin (Sec of Defense), May 23, 2022
(4/6) “The end state is defined by the political leadership, and in this case, President Zelenskyy is going to define the end state inside the boundaries of Ukraine.” —General Milley (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff), May 23, 2022
(5/6) “President Zelensky is the democratically elected president of a sovereign nation, and only he can decide what victory is going to look like and how he wants to achieve it.” —John F. Kirby (Pentagon press secretary), April 29, 2022
(6/6) If handing over American sovereignty to the leader of another country isn’t treason, what is?
https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1542081599965040640
Biden officials privately doubt that Ukraine can win back all of its territory
(CNN) - White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will ever be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war, US officials told CNN, even with the heavier and more sophisticated weaponry the US and its allies plan to send.
Advisers to President Joe Biden have begun debating internally how and whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should shift his definition of a Ukrainian "victory" -- adjusting for the possibility that his country has shrunk irreversibly.
US officials emphasized to CNN that this more pessimistic assessment does not mean the US plans to pressure Ukraine into making any formal territorial concessions to Russia in order to end the war. There is also hope that Ukrainian forces will be able to take back significant chunks of territory in a likely counteroffensive later this year.
...
The mood has shifted over the last several weeks, though, as Ukraine has struggled to repel Russia's advances in the Donbas and has suffered staggering troop losses, reaching as many as 100 soldiers per day. Ukrainian forces are also burning through their equipment and ammunition faster than the West can provide and train them on new, NATO-standard weapons systems.
A US military official and a source familiar with Western intelligence agreed it was unlikely that Ukraine would be able to mass the force necessary to reclaim all of the territory lost to Russia during the fighting -- especially this year, as Zelensky said on Monday was his goal. A substantial counteroffensive might be possible with more weapons and training, the sources said, but Russia may also have an opportunity to replenish its force in that time, so there are no guarantees.
...
Internally, there is a sense among some in the Biden administration that Zelensky will need to start moderating expectations for what Ukrainian forces can realistically achieve. Zelensky said late last month that he would "consider it a victory for our state, as of today, to advance to the February 24 line without unnecessary losses."
He reiterated that goal last week.
(CNN) - White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will ever be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war, US officials told CNN, even with the heavier and more sophisticated weaponry the US and its allies plan to send.
Advisers to President Joe Biden have begun debating internally how and whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should shift his definition of a Ukrainian "victory" -- adjusting for the possibility that his country has shrunk irreversibly.
US officials emphasized to CNN that this more pessimistic assessment does not mean the US plans to pressure Ukraine into making any formal territorial concessions to Russia in order to end the war. There is also hope that Ukrainian forces will be able to take back significant chunks of territory in a likely counteroffensive later this year.
...
The mood has shifted over the last several weeks, though, as Ukraine has struggled to repel Russia's advances in the Donbas and has suffered staggering troop losses, reaching as many as 100 soldiers per day. Ukrainian forces are also burning through their equipment and ammunition faster than the West can provide and train them on new, NATO-standard weapons systems.
A US military official and a source familiar with Western intelligence agreed it was unlikely that Ukraine would be able to mass the force necessary to reclaim all of the territory lost to Russia during the fighting -- especially this year, as Zelensky said on Monday was his goal. A substantial counteroffensive might be possible with more weapons and training, the sources said, but Russia may also have an opportunity to replenish its force in that time, so there are no guarantees.
...
Internally, there is a sense among some in the Biden administration that Zelensky will need to start moderating expectations for what Ukrainian forces can realistically achieve. Zelensky said late last month that he would "consider it a victory for our state, as of today, to advance to the February 24 line without unnecessary losses."
He reiterated that goal last week.
India's top cement maker paying for Russian coal in Chinese yuan
NEW DELHI, June 29 (Reuters) - India's biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement (ULTC.NS), is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to an Indian customs document reviewed by Reuters, a rare payment method that traders say could become more common.
...
The increasing use of the yuan to settle payments could help insulate Moscow from the effects of western sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and bolster Beijing's push to further internationalise the currency and chip away at the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade.
The sources declined to be identified as they are not authorized to speak to the media. UltraTech and SUEK did not respond to a request seeking comment.
"This move is significant. I have never heard any Indian entity paying in yuan for international trade in the last 25 years of my career. This is basically circumventing the USD (U.S. dollar)," a Singapore-based currency trader said.
...
India's bilateral trade with China, for which companies largely pay in dollars, has flourished even after a deadly military clash between the two in 2020, though New Delhi has increased scrutiny on Chinese investments and imports, and banned some mobile apps over security concerns.
An Indian government official familiar with the matter said the government was aware of payments in yuan.
"The use of the yuan to settle payments for imports from countries other than China was rare until now, and could increase due to sanctions on Russia," the official said.
India's energy imports from Russia have spiked in the recent weeks as traders have offered steep discounts, Reuters reported this month. New Delhi defends its purchases of Russian goods saying a sudden halt would inflate prices and hurt consumers.
NEW DELHI, June 29 (Reuters) - India's biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement (ULTC.NS), is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to an Indian customs document reviewed by Reuters, a rare payment method that traders say could become more common.
...
The increasing use of the yuan to settle payments could help insulate Moscow from the effects of western sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and bolster Beijing's push to further internationalise the currency and chip away at the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade.
The sources declined to be identified as they are not authorized to speak to the media. UltraTech and SUEK did not respond to a request seeking comment.
"This move is significant. I have never heard any Indian entity paying in yuan for international trade in the last 25 years of my career. This is basically circumventing the USD (U.S. dollar)," a Singapore-based currency trader said.
...
India's bilateral trade with China, for which companies largely pay in dollars, has flourished even after a deadly military clash between the two in 2020, though New Delhi has increased scrutiny on Chinese investments and imports, and banned some mobile apps over security concerns.
An Indian government official familiar with the matter said the government was aware of payments in yuan.
"The use of the yuan to settle payments for imports from countries other than China was rare until now, and could increase due to sanctions on Russia," the official said.
India's energy imports from Russia have spiked in the recent weeks as traders have offered steep discounts, Reuters reported this month. New Delhi defends its purchases of Russian goods saying a sudden halt would inflate prices and hurt consumers.
Inez Stepman @InezFeltscher
Dobbs is the first time the cultural left has actually *lost* ground since 1969.
Only other cultural victories I can think of (on guns, stopping ERA, maybe a couple more) have been holding the line, not an actual reversal.
https://twitter.com/InezFeltscher/status/1542513663134748673
Dr S Maitra @MrMaitra
It also hurts their fundamental theology that history and progress cannot be reversed.
https://twitter.com/MrMaitra/status/1542514891407237121
Inez Stepman @InezFeltscher
Replying to @MrMaitra
Yes, this is the heart of it. a Coalition of the ascendant on the right side of history doesn’t slam into a brick wall.
https://twitter.com/InezFeltscher/status/1542515116473589760
Michael Brendan Dougherty @michaelbd
Replying to @InezFeltscher and @MrMaitra
Controlling the powerful non-democratic institutions of our society is for progressives like swimming in water is to fish. That explains the gasping.
https://twitter.com/michaelbd/status/1542519667830292482
Dobbs is the first time the cultural left has actually *lost* ground since 1969.
Only other cultural victories I can think of (on guns, stopping ERA, maybe a couple more) have been holding the line, not an actual reversal.
https://twitter.com/InezFeltscher/status/1542513663134748673
Dr S Maitra @MrMaitra
It also hurts their fundamental theology that history and progress cannot be reversed.
Inez Stepman @InezFeltscher
Dobbs is the first time the cultural left has actually *lost* ground since 1969.
Only other cultural victories I can think of (on guns, stopping ERA, maybe a couple more) have been holding the line, not an actual reversal.
https://twitter.com/MrMaitra/status/1542514891407237121
Inez Stepman @InezFeltscher
Replying to @MrMaitra
Yes, this is the heart of it. a Coalition of the ascendant on the right side of history doesn’t slam into a brick wall.
https://twitter.com/InezFeltscher/status/1542515116473589760
Michael Brendan Dougherty @michaelbd
Replying to @InezFeltscher and @MrMaitra
Controlling the powerful non-democratic institutions of our society is for progressives like swimming in water is to fish. That explains the gasping.
https://twitter.com/michaelbd/status/1542519667830292482
Max Abrahms @MaxAbrahms
The Ukraine conflict illustrates the power of the media to convince democratic publics to support war. With less enthusiastic framing, this is not a war the public would support.
https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1542587694391468033
Max Abrahms @MaxAbrahms
We’re lucky Trump isn’t president during this conflict with Ukraine because CNN, MSNBC & the DNC would be taunting America endlessly to escalate indefinitely for the president to demonstrate he’s not colluding with Putin.
https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1542590261682905089
The Ukraine conflict illustrates the power of the media to convince democratic publics to support war. With less enthusiastic framing, this is not a war the public would support.
https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1542587694391468033
Max Abrahms @MaxAbrahms
We’re lucky Trump isn’t president during this conflict with Ukraine because CNN, MSNBC & the DNC would be taunting America endlessly to escalate indefinitely for the president to demonstrate he’s not colluding with Putin.
https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1542590261682905089
Biden: Gas Prices Will be High for 'As Long As It Takes'
Q: ... the war has pushed prices up. They could go as high as $200 a barrel, some analysts think. How long is it fair to expect American drivers and drivers around the world to pay that premium for this war?
Biden: As long as it takes so Russia cannot, in fact, defeat Ukraine and move beyond Ukraine.
Q: ... the war has pushed prices up. They could go as high as $200 a barrel, some analysts think. How long is it fair to expect American drivers and drivers around the world to pay that premium for this war?
Biden: As long as it takes so Russia cannot, in fact, defeat Ukraine and move beyond Ukraine.
>> Q: ... the war has pushed prices up. They could go as high as $200 a barrel, some analysts think. How long is it fair to expect American drivers and drivers around the world to pay that premium for this war?
Biden: As long as it takes so Russia cannot, in fact, defeat Ukraine and move beyond Ukraine.
Breaking911 @Breaking911
CNN: "What do you say to those families that say, 'listen, we can't afford to pay $4.85 a gallon for months, if not years?’"
BIDEN ADVISOR BRIAN DEESE: "This is about the future of the Liberal World Order and we have to stand firm."
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1542684948519419908
当你对在吃穿住用上入不敷出的老百姓说，他们应该为Liberal World Order继续牺牲，老百姓不会一直听你的话、一直牺牲下去，他们早晚要非常理性地回复你说: Fuck you, and fuck the Liberal World Order.
拜登团伙在两个指标上有史上罕有的表现：1. 对宏大而空泛的政治理念的执着；2. 在日常而基础的政治任务上的无能/不作为。他们一方面让意识形态狂热分子主导政策，在“民主”、“人权”、“平等”、“包容”、“自由国际秩序”等种种大词的指引之下为自己制造内政外交上的种种困境和危机，另一方面在通胀、油价、非法越境等与民众生活密切相关的问题上不但无能为力，甚至没有展示解决问题的意愿。历史对这个团伙的评判会非常、非常严厉。
Toronto Police @TorontoPolice
News Release - Missing Woman, Ryerson Avenue and Bathurst Street area, Isobella Degrace, 27 https://tps.to/53329
https://twitter.com/TorontoPolice/status/1542496992626106368
配图是一个长胡子的男人。
这种乍看起来没有严重后果的荒诞做法当然不是无害的，因为当公民对政府在最基本的判断上指鹿为马的行为渐渐习以为常的时候，他们就不再是构建民主社会的合格质料了。
News Release - Missing Woman, Ryerson Avenue and Bathurst Street area, Isobella Degrace, 27 https://tps.to/53329
https://twitter.com/TorontoPolice/status/1542496992626106368
配图是一个长胡子的男人。
这种乍看起来没有严重后果的荒诞做法当然不是无害的，因为当公民对政府在最基本的判断上指鹿为马的行为渐渐习以为常的时候，他们就不再是构建民主社会的合格质料了。
高法Roe判决和国会山一日游听证会目前来看没有改变中期选举形势：
National Poll: Biden With Higher Approval Than US Congress & Supreme Court; Trump Leads GOP Nomination Contest
The latest Emerson College Polling national survey of US voters finds a majority disapprove of President Biden, Congress, and the Supreme Court. Biden has a 40% job approval, while 53% disapprove of the job he is doing as president. Since last month, Biden’s approval has increased two points. The US Congress has a 19% job approval, while 70% disapprove of the job they are doing. The Supreme Court has a 36% job approval; 54% disapprove.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Independent voters align more with Democrats on Supreme Court approval: 71% of Democrats and 58% of Independents disapprove of the job that the Supreme Court is doing whereas a majority, 56%, of Republicans approve of the job they are doing.”
In the 2022 November Midterm Elections, 46% of voters plan to vote for the Republican congressional candidate on the ballot while 43% plan to support the Democratic congressional candidate. This congressional ballot test has remained relatively stagnant since last month’s national poll, where Republicans also led by three points on the congressional ballot, 45% to 42%.
...
The Emerson College Polling National poll of voters was conducted June 28-29, 2022.
National Poll: Biden With Higher Approval Than US Congress & Supreme Court; Trump Leads GOP Nomination Contest
The latest Emerson College Polling national survey of US voters finds a majority disapprove of President Biden, Congress, and the Supreme Court. Biden has a 40% job approval, while 53% disapprove of the job he is doing as president. Since last month, Biden’s approval has increased two points. The US Congress has a 19% job approval, while 70% disapprove of the job they are doing. The Supreme Court has a 36% job approval; 54% disapprove.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Independent voters align more with Democrats on Supreme Court approval: 71% of Democrats and 58% of Independents disapprove of the job that the Supreme Court is doing whereas a majority, 56%, of Republicans approve of the job they are doing.”
In the 2022 November Midterm Elections, 46% of voters plan to vote for the Republican congressional candidate on the ballot while 43% plan to support the Democratic congressional candidate. This congressional ballot test has remained relatively stagnant since last month’s national poll, where Republicans also led by three points on the congressional ballot, 45% to 42%.
...
The Emerson College Polling National poll of voters was conducted June 28-29, 2022.
我感觉美国右翼还是对这一点的重要性领会不够：冷战后共和党唯一成功连任的总统是史上最差的总统之一。而且仅凭他在国防外交这一方面的表现就足以跻身最差之列。GWB涉外的所有重大决定都带来了长远的负面影响：发动两场战争、启动北约第三次东扩、扩大对华贸易开放、扩大情治机构的权力。他今日还在左右两边各路精英群体中享有相当的尊敬，是由于他的政策所指向的愿景——精英主导的、以贸易条约为主要工具、以颜色革命和局部战争为必要手段的政治经济全球化——是冷战后美国统治阶层广泛接受的。美国的生机取决于大众能否从这个阶层的思想和物质掌控中获得解放。
New Poll: Americans Wary of More Intervention in Ukraine, More Security Commitments in Middle East
ARLINGTON, Va.—In conjunction with YouGov, Concerned Veterans for America (CVA) on Friday released the results of a new poll of the American public. The poll gauged opinions on the Biden Administration’s handling of foreign policy, including the war in Ukraine, and its use of the United States military. By and large, Americans signaled opposition to American troops engaging in direct combat in the war in Ukraine and would rather the Biden administration prioritize domestic issues over ensuring a complete defeat of Russia. Additionally, a strong majority of Americans opposed deploying more troops to the Middle East and making new security commitments to autocratic Persian Gulf regimes.
Dan Caldwell, CVA’s Senior Advisor, had this to say about the findings:
“With historic economic challenges at home, it’s not surprising that the American people are wary of taking on new security commitments abroad and starting a war with a nuclear-armed Russia. As President Biden returns from the NATO summit in Madrid and heads to the Middle East next month, he should note that the American people would rather he focus his attention on issues here at home that are directly connected to the well-being of the American people.”
KEY FINDINGS
The poll found Americans in large part disagree with Biden’s approach to foreign policy issues:
- 44% had an unfavorable opinion of Biden’s handling of the war in Ukraine (roughly a third had a favorable opinion).
- Only about a quarter of the American public support directly involving the U.S. military in the Russia-Ukraine war, with almost twice as many people opposing.
- Notably, when compared to a similar poll conducted in February, American sentiment on going to war with Russia has remained unchanged (roughly half opposed, less than a quarter supported).
Generally, Americans would like to see the country less militarily engaged in the world overall:
- A plurality of respondents saying our military footprint should be reduced (40%), and roughly a third think it should stay about the same (31%). Conversely, only 12% would like to see our military engagement increase.
- Additionally, a solid majority (52%) would oppose sending more troops to the Middle East (only 17% would support such a move).
See the full results of the poll here.
ARLINGTON, Va.—In conjunction with YouGov, Concerned Veterans for America (CVA) on Friday released the results of a new poll of the American public. The poll gauged opinions on the Biden Administration’s handling of foreign policy, including the war in Ukraine, and its use of the United States military. By and large, Americans signaled opposition to American troops engaging in direct combat in the war in Ukraine and would rather the Biden administration prioritize domestic issues over ensuring a complete defeat of Russia. Additionally, a strong majority of Americans opposed deploying more troops to the Middle East and making new security commitments to autocratic Persian Gulf regimes.
Dan Caldwell, CVA’s Senior Advisor, had this to say about the findings:
“With historic economic challenges at home, it’s not surprising that the American people are wary of taking on new security commitments abroad and starting a war with a nuclear-armed Russia. As President Biden returns from the NATO summit in Madrid and heads to the Middle East next month, he should note that the American people would rather he focus his attention on issues here at home that are directly connected to the well-being of the American people.”
KEY FINDINGS
The poll found Americans in large part disagree with Biden’s approach to foreign policy issues:
- 44% had an unfavorable opinion of Biden’s handling of the war in Ukraine (roughly a third had a favorable opinion).
- Only about a quarter of the American public support directly involving the U.S. military in the Russia-Ukraine war, with almost twice as many people opposing.
- Notably, when compared to a similar poll conducted in February, American sentiment on going to war with Russia has remained unchanged (roughly half opposed, less than a quarter supported).
Generally, Americans would like to see the country less militarily engaged in the world overall:
- A plurality of respondents saying our military footprint should be reduced (40%), and roughly a third think it should stay about the same (31%). Conversely, only 12% would like to see our military engagement increase.
- Additionally, a solid majority (52%) would oppose sending more troops to the Middle East (only 17% would support such a move).
See the full results of the poll here.
>>ARLINGTON, Va.—In conjunction with YouGov, Concern...
1. Should the US be more or less militarily engaged in conflicts around the world, or stay about
the same?
More 12%; Less 40%; Stay about the same 31%; Don’t know 16%
2. Of the following issues, which should be President Biden’s top priority?
Lower or eliminate inflation 38%; Ensure a defeat of Russia in Ukraine 8%; Reduce the national debt 6%; Solve the energy crisis 12%; Lower cost and improve access to healthcare 15%; Reduce divisiveness in the country 8%; Something else 12%
3. Do you support or oppose the United States military becoming directly involved in combat
in the Russia-Ukraine war?
Strongly oppose 27%; Somewhat oppose 19%; Neither support nor oppose 21%; Somewhat support 13%; Strongly support 10%; Don’t know 10%
4. Do you generally have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Biden’s handling of
the war in Ukraine?
Favorable 36%; Unfavorable 44%; Don’t know 20%
5. Would you support or oppose President Biden deploying more troops to the Middle East?
Strongly oppose 29%; Somewhat oppose 23%; Neither support nor oppose 19%; Somewhat support 10%; Strongly support 7%; Don’t know 13%
现在还在声讨川普的脑子多少沾点 现任都上来两年了 全球化和生活成本转好了吗
很多分析指出，没有北约主战派尤其是美国的背书，立陶宛不敢封锁加里宁格勒的陆上运输。然而德国主导的欧盟不支持立陶宛冒进，迅速平息了加里宁格勒的对峙。主和派赢了一场暗斗。
Kaliningrad row: EU nears compromise deal to defuse standoff with Russia
VILNIUS/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Trade through Lithuania to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad could return to normal within days, two sources familiar with the matter said, as European officials edge towards a compromise deal with the Baltic state to defuse a row with Moscow.
Kaliningrad, which is bordered by European Union states and relies on railways and roads through Lithuania for most goods, has been cut off from some freight transport from mainland Russia since June 17 under sanctions imposed by Brussels.
...
While Western powers have pledged to stand up for Ukraine, reiterating their resolve at both G7 and NATO summits this week, it is proving hard for Europe both to stand by strict sanctions and avoid further escalation with Russia.
Europe's biggest economy is also heavily reliant on Russian gas imports and would be vulnerable to any reduction in flows if the Kaliningrad dispute escalated.
"We have to face reality," said one person with direct knowledge of the EU discussions, describing Kaliningrad as "sacred" for Moscow.
"(Putin) has much more leverage than we have. It's in our interests to find a compromise," he said, conceding that the eventual outcome may appear unfair.
That's why European officials, with the backing of Germany, are seeking a compromise to resolve one of their many conflicts with Moscow, said one of the people.
If the traditional route for Russian goods to Kaliningrad, first via its ally Belarus and then Lithuania, is not restored, the Baltic state fears Moscow could use military force to plough a land corridor through its territory, the person said.
Germany, meanwhile, has soldiers stationed in Lithuania and could be sucked into a confrontation alongside its NATO allies if that were to happen.
Kaliningrad row: EU nears compromise deal to defuse standoff with Russia
VILNIUS/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Trade through Lithuania to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad could return to normal within days, two sources familiar with the matter said, as European officials edge towards a compromise deal with the Baltic state to defuse a row with Moscow.
Kaliningrad, which is bordered by European Union states and relies on railways and roads through Lithuania for most goods, has been cut off from some freight transport from mainland Russia since June 17 under sanctions imposed by Brussels.
...
While Western powers have pledged to stand up for Ukraine, reiterating their resolve at both G7 and NATO summits this week, it is proving hard for Europe both to stand by strict sanctions and avoid further escalation with Russia.
Europe's biggest economy is also heavily reliant on Russian gas imports and would be vulnerable to any reduction in flows if the Kaliningrad dispute escalated.
"We have to face reality," said one person with direct knowledge of the EU discussions, describing Kaliningrad as "sacred" for Moscow.
"(Putin) has much more leverage than we have. It's in our interests to find a compromise," he said, conceding that the eventual outcome may appear unfair.
That's why European officials, with the backing of Germany, are seeking a compromise to resolve one of their many conflicts with Moscow, said one of the people.
If the traditional route for Russian goods to Kaliningrad, first via its ally Belarus and then Lithuania, is not restored, the Baltic state fears Moscow could use military force to plough a land corridor through its territory, the person said.
Germany, meanwhile, has soldiers stationed in Lithuania and could be sucked into a confrontation alongside its NATO allies if that were to happen.
>>很多分析指出，没有北约主战派尤其是美国的背书，立陶宛不敢封锁加里宁格勒的陆上运输。然而德国主导的欧盟...
Germany’s Scholz urges free transit for Russian goods to Kaliningrad
...Speaking at a press conference at the NATO summit in Madrid, Scholz said that it was "a matter for the European Union to set the necessary framework and rules" for freight transport from Russia to its enclave.
"And, of course, these [rules] must always be set in the light of the fact that we are dealing here with traffic between two parts of Russia," he added, suggesting that EU sanctions against Russian goods should not apply because these goods were not entering the bloc as imports but just passing in transit.
EU officials are currently in talks with Lithuania to exempt freight traffic between Russia and its Kaliningrad enclave from the sanctions.
"I believe that all parties involved are currently making great efforts to establish a de-escalation dynamic here," Scholz said.
Winning: An Interview with Christopher Rufo
...Christopher Rufo: The animating spirit of the Left’s philosophy is the rejection of limits. The Left advocates simultaneously for the destruction of prior norms and for the realization of utopia, which is why it has always been so unstable. And so, for sexuality, there is a desire to dissolve all prior sexual identities and social structures, and replace them with a normless, sexless, completely plastic conception of sexual or gender identity. This, obviously, is absurd. Human beings have a specific, fixed nature that includes human sexuality; there are inherent limits that cannot be surpassed through ideology or surgery. The Left’s sexual ideology will always lead to disappointment, and that’s because the attempt to surpass human nature always ends in human destruction. You can see this manifest physically, for example, at many protests in favor of gender ideology: the people are ugly, unhealthy, and deranged. But rather than adjust, the Left always insists on plowing forward, rejecting criticism as another “ism” or “phobia,” and re-doubling their efforts. The same pattern applies to schools. The more extreme elements of gender ideology are a good way to make kids miserable, which, to the minds of proponents, only justifies a deeper intervention. It won’t be stopped without a firm hand.
...Christopher Rufo: The animating spirit of the Left’s philosophy is the rejection of limits. The Left advocates simultaneously for the destruction of prior norms and for the realization of utopia, which is why it has always been so unstable. And so, for sexuality, there is a desire to dissolve all prior sexual identities and social structures, and replace them with a normless, sexless, completely plastic conception of sexual or gender identity. This, obviously, is absurd. Human beings have a specific, fixed nature that includes human sexuality; there are inherent limits that cannot be surpassed through ideology or surgery. The Left’s sexual ideology will always lead to disappointment, and that’s because the attempt to surpass human nature always ends in human destruction. You can see this manifest physically, for example, at many protests in favor of gender ideology: the people are ugly, unhealthy, and deranged. But rather than adjust, the Left always insists on plowing forward, rejecting criticism as another “ism” or “phobia,” and re-doubling their efforts. The same pattern applies to schools. The more extreme elements of gender ideology are a good way to make kids miserable, which, to the minds of proponents, only justifies a deeper intervention. It won’t be stopped without a firm hand.
President Biden @POTUS
My message to the companies running gas stations and setting prices at the pump is simple: this is a time of war and global peril.
Bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you’re paying for the product. And do it now.
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1543263229006254080
Chad Gilmartin @ChadGilmartinCA
Biden Seeks to Block New Offshore Drilling in Atlantic, Pacific
“From Day One, President Biden and I have made clear our commitment to TRANSITION to a clean energy economy.” – Biden’s Interior Secretary
This makes $5 gas seem like a historic achievement…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-plans-to-block-new-offshore-oil-drilling-in-atlantic-pacific-11656709209
https://twitter.com/ChadGilmartinCA/status/1543028363912105984
My message to the companies running gas stations and setting prices at the pump is simple: this is a time of war and global peril.
Bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you’re paying for the product. And do it now.
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1543263229006254080
Chad Gilmartin @ChadGilmartinCA
Biden Seeks to Block New Offshore Drilling in Atlantic, Pacific
“From Day One, President Biden and I have made clear our commitment to TRANSITION to a clean energy economy.” – Biden’s Interior Secretary
This makes $5 gas seem like a historic achievement…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-plans-to-block-new-offshore-oil-drilling-in-atlantic-pacific-11656709209
https://twitter.com/ChadGilmartinCA/status/1543028363912105984
恭喜 -1000葱
禁止儿童参加pride parade是一条道德底线，禁止"drag queen"进课堂也是。如果捍卫这类道德底线的措施无法从liberal democracy的构想中导出，那么社会有理由要求illiberal democracy. 非要讲the right side of history的话，手持圣母像和十字架的人在正确的一边，穿着奇装异服挑逗儿童的变态在错误的一边。
容忍这些变态的政体，不论一度显得如何正确，最终会因为它们的错误而受到历史的惩罚：好的下场是被它们诅咒的落后势力取代，比这坏很多的下场是被它们纵容的腐化分子抛弃。当良好治理必须基于其上的自然秩序——纯真的童年、和睦的家庭、团结互助的小共同体——大面积腐化时，政体的退化不可避免。
容忍这些变态的政体，不论一度显得如何正确，最终会因为它们的错误而受到历史的惩罚：好的下场是被它们诅咒的落后势力取代，比这坏很多的下场是被它们纵容的腐化分子抛弃。当良好治理必须基于其上的自然秩序——纯真的童年、和睦的家庭、团结互助的小共同体——大面积腐化时，政体的退化不可避免。
Liberal World Order在内政方面的含义越来越明显了，它是一套以自由和人权的名义阻止社会捍卫自然秩序的跨国机制，它压抑各个共同体力求长存的生命意志：
Romania is pushing a law banning ‘gay’ propaganda, echoing Russia and Hungary
Following the lead of Hungary and Russia, Romania’s Senate passed a bill last week that would ban so-called “gay” propaganda in schools.
Lawmakers from the nationalist party Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) and the ethnic Hungarian coalition group the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) pushed the bill, whose proponents claim it would protect children from abuse. If made law, the bill would prohibit materials the government views as promoting homosexuality or trans identities in schools.
Romanian human rights organizations immediately condemned the bill, calling for the parliament’s lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, to reject it.
“Romania must avoid the illiberal drift promoted by Hungary through such measures which were received harshly by the European Union,” the Romanian LGBTQ+ advocacy group ACCEPT told Reuters. “Adopting explicitly homophobic and transphobic legislation by censoring information about sexual orientation and gender identity is a shame on Romania.”
Romania is pushing a law banning ‘gay’ propaganda, echoing Russia and Hungary
Following the lead of Hungary and Russia, Romania’s Senate passed a bill last week that would ban so-called “gay” propaganda in schools.
Lawmakers from the nationalist party Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) and the ethnic Hungarian coalition group the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) pushed the bill, whose proponents claim it would protect children from abuse. If made law, the bill would prohibit materials the government views as promoting homosexuality or trans identities in schools.
Romanian human rights organizations immediately condemned the bill, calling for the parliament’s lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, to reject it.
“Romania must avoid the illiberal drift promoted by Hungary through such measures which were received harshly by the European Union,” the Romanian LGBTQ+ advocacy group ACCEPT told Reuters. “Adopting explicitly homophobic and transphobic legislation by censoring information about sexual orientation and gender identity is a shame on Romania.”
现在已经不是所谓「对话」还能有用的时候了。
直白一点儿：人话，只对人有意义。
如今也已不是论「对错」的时代，甚至连论「是非」的窗口期也已经过了，现在只有「要」和「不要」两种选择。不止对外，接下来将重点「对内」。
瑞典、芬兰为了自保而放弃那些「让自己有个借口骄傲」的虚伪装饰，因为目标只是微不足道的「外人」，所以他们还没什么感觉。但轮到每个人「选择什么可以割让，什么不可以割让」的时候，那才是不能错过的精彩。
以下，容我引用一句作为命运棋子的人必须恭敬接受的安排：
当然，搜索这句话的同时间，Google 「又一次」很「热情」地给我送来了另一句（哪怕我的Cookie应该是零，浏览器的「可追踪指纹」也至少是囊括百万之人数）：
于是我再 Google 一下此人（Temmie Ovwasa）的照片……
Yuck!!
After the chills, goosebumps, nausea, and dizziness...I wanna say, "WTF Google robs me of my right for a proper trigger warning? Is there no 'Safe Place' anymore?"
直白一点儿：人话，只对人有意义。
如今也已不是论「对错」的时代，甚至连论「是非」的窗口期也已经过了，现在只有「要」和「不要」两种选择。不止对外，接下来将重点「对内」。
瑞典、芬兰为了自保而放弃那些「让自己有个借口骄傲」的虚伪装饰，因为目标只是微不足道的「外人」，所以他们还没什么感觉。但轮到每个人「选择什么可以割让，什么不可以割让」的时候，那才是不能错过的精彩。
以下，容我引用一句作为命运棋子的人必须恭敬接受的安排：
“Do not think that I have come to bring peace to the earth. I have not come to bring peace, but a sword. For I came to SET A MAN AGAINST HIS FATHER, AND A DAUGHTER AGAINST HER MOTHER, AND A DAUGHTER-IN-LAW AGAINST HER MOTHER-IN-LAW; and A MAN’S ENEMIES WILL BE THE MEMBERS OF HIS HOUSEHOLD.
当然，搜索这句话的同时间，Google 「又一次」很「热情」地给我送来了另一句（哪怕我的Cookie应该是零，浏览器的「可追踪指纹」也至少是囊括百万之人数）：
I am a lesbian, Stop introducing me to Jesus he does not Deserve me.
于是我再 Google 一下此人（Temmie Ovwasa）的照片……
Yuck!!
After the chills, goosebumps, nausea, and dizziness...I wanna say, "WTF Google robs me of my right for a proper trigger warning? Is there no 'Safe Place' anymore?"
Far right claims two vice-presidencies in French Parliament, advancing its 'normalization'
After an eventful day for all political groups, far-right MPs Sébastien Chenu and Hélène Laporte were elected as two of the six vice-presidents of the Assemblée Nationale on Wednesday, June 29.
The battle for the Assemblée Nationale's strategic leadership roles was a summary of all the political dilemmas of the coming term. The second day of the 16th legislature, on Wednesday, June 29, foreshadowed the confrontations to come in a Parliament now fragmented into ten groups.
By the session's end, the Rassemblement National (RN) clinched a new win in obtaining two vice-presidencies, for the first time in its history. Far-right MPs Sébastien Chenu and Hélène Laporte were elected in the first round, benefiting from votes from the majority and the right in a secret ballot, with 290 and 284 votes respectively.
Following the election of 89 MPs – and the creation of the largest opposition group – the election of two RN MPs to the vice-presidency further reinforces the "normalization" of Marine Le Pen's party. It was a scenario feared by left-wing MPs of the Nouvelle Union Populaire, Écologique et Sociale (NUPES), who accused the presidential coalition of facilitating the appointment of RN members to symbolically strong political positions.
After an eventful day for all political groups, far-right MPs Sébastien Chenu and Hélène Laporte were elected as two of the six vice-presidents of the Assemblée Nationale on Wednesday, June 29.
The battle for the Assemblée Nationale's strategic leadership roles was a summary of all the political dilemmas of the coming term. The second day of the 16th legislature, on Wednesday, June 29, foreshadowed the confrontations to come in a Parliament now fragmented into ten groups.
By the session's end, the Rassemblement National (RN) clinched a new win in obtaining two vice-presidencies, for the first time in its history. Far-right MPs Sébastien Chenu and Hélène Laporte were elected in the first round, benefiting from votes from the majority and the right in a secret ballot, with 290 and 284 votes respectively.
Following the election of 89 MPs – and the creation of the largest opposition group – the election of two RN MPs to the vice-presidency further reinforces the "normalization" of Marine Le Pen's party. It was a scenario feared by left-wing MPs of the Nouvelle Union Populaire, Écologique et Sociale (NUPES), who accused the presidential coalition of facilitating the appointment of RN members to symbolically strong political positions.
After COVID: Unhappiness Is Worse Among Single and Non-Religious Americans
Highlights
- American young adults have begun to take an extraordinarily dim view of the world and their own lives.
- Unhappiness rose just 8 percentage points for married young adults, versus 18 percentage points for the unmarried in 2021.
- The only factors that appear meaningfully protective against the post-COVID unhappiness spike are marriage and religious attendance.
...
...
Conclusion
The COVID pandemic has made virtually everyone less happy. This effect is especially pronounced among younger Americans under 35. For young adults, the rise in unhappiness has been sharply felt, with pronounced rises across all socioeconomic and demographic groups, and throughout the ideological spectrum. The only factors that appear meaningfully protective against the post-COVID unhappiness spike are marriage and religious attendance. Married church-attenders are markedly happier than other young adults. Some of this may be selection bias, but some of it may also be causal effects of deeper social ties providing material and psychological resources for dealing with life’s challenges. Unfortunately for the happiness of young Americans, whereas in 1972 about 24% of people under 35 were married churchgoers, in 2021 just 7% were, leaving more and more young adults exposed to life’s troubles with little help, as shown in Figure 3.
Highlights
- American young adults have begun to take an extraordinarily dim view of the world and their own lives.
- Unhappiness rose just 8 percentage points for married young adults, versus 18 percentage points for the unmarried in 2021.
- The only factors that appear meaningfully protective against the post-COVID unhappiness spike are marriage and religious attendance.
...
...
Conclusion
The COVID pandemic has made virtually everyone less happy. This effect is especially pronounced among younger Americans under 35. For young adults, the rise in unhappiness has been sharply felt, with pronounced rises across all socioeconomic and demographic groups, and throughout the ideological spectrum. The only factors that appear meaningfully protective against the post-COVID unhappiness spike are marriage and religious attendance. Married church-attenders are markedly happier than other young adults. Some of this may be selection bias, but some of it may also be causal effects of deeper social ties providing material and psychological resources for dealing with life’s challenges. Unfortunately for the happiness of young Americans, whereas in 1972 about 24% of people under 35 were married churchgoers, in 2021 just 7% were, leaving more and more young adults exposed to life’s troubles with little help, as shown in Figure 3.
German Minister Warns Of ‘Catastrophic’ Industrial Shutdowns And Mass Unemployment If Gas Crisis Continues
TOPLINE Germany’s economy minister Robert Habeck said the country’s federal government is attempting to stabilize energy supplies but warned of potential industry shutdowns and job losses if gas reserves run low in the winter, a day after he said Russia’s throttling of natural gas supply to Germany could ripple into a Lehman Brothers-style collapse of the energy sector.
KEY FACTS
In an interview with German magazine Der Spiegel, Habeck said Germany has never been in a situation like the current “gas crisis” adding that the government was trying to procure replacements and expand its natural gas infrastructure to counteract the drop in supply from Russia.
Habeck once again urged the German people to cut back on gas consumption wherever possible.
The minister said if the government's efforts to resolve the crisis fail and there is not enough gas some industries that consume the fuel will have to be shut down, which could be “catastrophic.”
He added that the impact of such a shutdown will be felt for a long time, not “two days or weeks” and many people would lose their jobs.
Habeck also noted that more people will feel the pinch of the gas shortage and high prices as the cost is gradually passed down to the consumers.
On Putin’s plan, the minister said the Russian leader was gradually throttling gas supply volumes and keeping prices high in an effort to increase “insecurity and fear,” fan populism and undermine democracy.
CRUCIAL QUOTE
Speaking at a press conference on Thursday, Habeck pointed to a chart projecting a depletion in the country’s gas storage levels and said: “If this minus gets so big that they can’t carry it anymore, the whole market is in danger of collapsing at some point… a Lehman effect in the energy system.” Drawing parallels with the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank in 2008 the fallout of which snowballed into the 2008 global financial crisis and the Great Recession.
TOPLINE Germany’s economy minister Robert Habeck said the country’s federal government is attempting to stabilize energy supplies but warned of potential industry shutdowns and job losses if gas reserves run low in the winter, a day after he said Russia’s throttling of natural gas supply to Germany could ripple into a Lehman Brothers-style collapse of the energy sector.
KEY FACTS
In an interview with German magazine Der Spiegel, Habeck said Germany has never been in a situation like the current “gas crisis” adding that the government was trying to procure replacements and expand its natural gas infrastructure to counteract the drop in supply from Russia.
Habeck once again urged the German people to cut back on gas consumption wherever possible.
The minister said if the government's efforts to resolve the crisis fail and there is not enough gas some industries that consume the fuel will have to be shut down, which could be “catastrophic.”
He added that the impact of such a shutdown will be felt for a long time, not “two days or weeks” and many people would lose their jobs.
Habeck also noted that more people will feel the pinch of the gas shortage and high prices as the cost is gradually passed down to the consumers.
On Putin’s plan, the minister said the Russian leader was gradually throttling gas supply volumes and keeping prices high in an effort to increase “insecurity and fear,” fan populism and undermine democracy.
CRUCIAL QUOTE
Speaking at a press conference on Thursday, Habeck pointed to a chart projecting a depletion in the country’s gas storage levels and said: “If this minus gets so big that they can’t carry it anymore, the whole market is in danger of collapsing at some point… a Lehman effect in the energy system.” Drawing parallels with the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank in 2008 the fallout of which snowballed into the 2008 global financial crisis and the Great Recession.
Germany’s Union Head Warns of Collapse of Entire Industries
Top German industries could face collapse because of cuts in the supplies of Russian natural gas, the country’s top union official warned before crisis talks with Chancellor Olaf Scholz starting Monday.
“Because of the gas bottlenecks, entire industries are in danger of permanently collapsing: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry,” said Yasmin Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions (DGB), in an interview with the newspaper Bild am Sonntag. “Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany.”
The energy crisis is already driving inflation to record highs, she said. Fahimi is calling for a price cap on energy for households. The rising costs for Co2 emissions mean further burdens for households and companies, Fahimi added. The crisis could lead to social and labor unrest, she said.
Top German industries could face collapse because of cuts in the supplies of Russian natural gas, the country’s top union official warned before crisis talks with Chancellor Olaf Scholz starting Monday.
“Because of the gas bottlenecks, entire industries are in danger of permanently collapsing: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry,” said Yasmin Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions (DGB), in an interview with the newspaper Bild am Sonntag. “Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany.”
The energy crisis is already driving inflation to record highs, she said. Fahimi is calling for a price cap on energy for households. The rising costs for Co2 emissions mean further burdens for households and companies, Fahimi added. The crisis could lead to social and labor unrest, she said.
German Industry Body Slashes Forecast, Warns of Recession if Russian Gas Halted
BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's BDI industry association slashed its economic forecast for 2022 on Tuesday and said a halt in Russian gas deliveries would make recession inevitable in Europe's largest economy.
German gross domestic product is now expected to grow by 1.5%, rather than the 3.5% forecast given before war broke out in Ukraine, the BDI said, adding that a return to pre-crisis levels is not expected before the end of the year at the soonest.
The IWH economic research institute, which is part of a group of institutes that advise the German government, also slashed its forecast to 1.5% on Tuesday.
In March it had predicted growth of 3.1%.
Hamburg Senator Warns of Hot Water Rationing if Gas Shortage Becomes Acute
BERLIN (Reuters) - The German city of Hamburg will ration hot water for private households and limit the maximum heating temperature in the event of an acute gas shortage, its environment senator said as Germany braces for possible outages of Russian gas imports.
Germany moved last month to stage two of its three-tier emergency gas plan after Russia reduced deliveries via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline -- a step before the government rations fuel consumption.
The government is appealing to citizens and companies to cut energy consumption and help the country fill its gas storage capacity by winter but cities are also considering measures if gas runs out.
"In an acute gas shortage, warm water could only be made available at certain times of the day in an emergency," Hamburg Senator for the Environment Jens Kerstan was quoted as saying by Welt am Sonntag newspaper on Saturday.
Kerstan said the city could also consider a general reduction of the maximum room temperature in the district's heating network.
BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's BDI industry association slashed its economic forecast for 2022 on Tuesday and said a halt in Russian gas deliveries would make recession inevitable in Europe's largest economy.
German gross domestic product is now expected to grow by 1.5%, rather than the 3.5% forecast given before war broke out in Ukraine, the BDI said, adding that a return to pre-crisis levels is not expected before the end of the year at the soonest.
The IWH economic research institute, which is part of a group of institutes that advise the German government, also slashed its forecast to 1.5% on Tuesday.
In March it had predicted growth of 3.1%.
Hamburg Senator Warns of Hot Water Rationing if Gas Shortage Becomes Acute
BERLIN (Reuters) - The German city of Hamburg will ration hot water for private households and limit the maximum heating temperature in the event of an acute gas shortage, its environment senator said as Germany braces for possible outages of Russian gas imports.
Germany moved last month to stage two of its three-tier emergency gas plan after Russia reduced deliveries via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline -- a step before the government rations fuel consumption.
The government is appealing to citizens and companies to cut energy consumption and help the country fill its gas storage capacity by winter but cities are also considering measures if gas runs out.
"In an acute gas shortage, warm water could only be made available at certain times of the day in an emergency," Hamburg Senator for the Environment Jens Kerstan was quoted as saying by Welt am Sonntag newspaper on Saturday.
Kerstan said the city could also consider a general reduction of the maximum room temperature in the district's heating network.
川普：不支持我你就是不爱美国
拜登：不支持我你就是反对普世价值
所以 哪一个更极端？
拜登：不支持我你就是反对普世价值
所以 哪一个更极端？
国庆日笑话：
Gavin Newsom @GavinNewsom
We’re about to celebrate Independence Day - but Freedom is under attack by Republican leaders in states like Florida.
Banning books.
Restricting speech.
Making it harder to vote.
Criminalizing women and doctors.
It’s time to stand up. Don’t let them take your freedom.
https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1543610674873438208
加州人好像不大喜欢他们的自由呢：
More than 360,000 people left California in 2021, in what some are calling “The California Exodus” — many leaving for states like Texas, Arizona and Washington.
And a rising number of former Californians are migrating out of the country altogether and are instead heading south of the border. Many are seeking a more relaxed and affordable lifestyle in Mexico.
California continuously ranks high as one of the country’s most expensive states to live in. The median asking price for a home in California is about $797,470 — only 25% of the state’s households could afford that in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Gavin Newsom @GavinNewsom
We’re about to celebrate Independence Day - but Freedom is under attack by Republican leaders in states like Florida.
Banning books.
Restricting speech.
Making it harder to vote.
Criminalizing women and doctors.
It’s time to stand up. Don’t let them take your freedom.
https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1543610674873438208
加州人好像不大喜欢他们的自由呢：
More than 360,000 people left California in 2021, in what some are calling “The California Exodus” — many leaving for states like Texas, Arizona and Washington.
And a rising number of former Californians are migrating out of the country altogether and are instead heading south of the border. Many are seeking a more relaxed and affordable lifestyle in Mexico.
California continuously ranks high as one of the country’s most expensive states to live in. The median asking price for a home in California is about $797,470 — only 25% of the state’s households could afford that in the fourth quarter of 2021.
>>More than 360,000 people left California in 2021, in what some are calling “The California Exodus” — many leaving for states like Texas, Arizona and Washington.
And a rising number of former Californians are migrating out of the country altogether and are instead heading south of the border. Many are seeking a more relaxed and affordable lifestyle in Mexico.
水该流到哪儿，就得流到哪儿。
自然规律。
----------------------
过去的时代常说：愚蠢没有救。
如今的新时代新气象：理性的疯子拒绝救，也反对自救。（因为「左」的一切，无论出发点是哪儿，只要按照现实的逻辑，归结到最后，始终就只有一个字：「死」）
然而，当前这种无处不在的 cult 气氛并不是什么真正的新鲜事。左派们自然而然向任何一种邪教靠拢，哪怕观察范围仅限于现代的美国，也并不是头一回。
1950年代到1970年代的「人民圣殿」就在「加州共和国」辉煌灿烂，教主琼斯还把马克思列宁主义和毛泽东思想奉为教义，受到马克思主义派的「解放的神学（Liberation Theology）」极大影响。琼斯还号召信徒跟随自己，一起在圭亚那建立了「人民圣殿的农场公社」。
至于后来的事情，大家都知道了。对这种「永恒悲剧」感兴趣的人，自己Google一下："Peoples Temple Agricultural Project"，或者"Jonestown"
可惜的是，「邪教」一词也仅仅只在其梦幻泡影彻底破灭之后才出现。近1000具尸体，终于凑合成了响彻国际的声音。
----------------------
相较之下，当前的「主流」邪教还算处在比较「初级」的阶段。要问是不是能够像「伟大的毛主席」一样玩儿死总人口的 6%，目前那种可能还是相当小的。
----------------------
忘了补一句。
拉丁美洲，乃是这种马主义 Liberation Theology 的重灾区。当然，那是「梵蒂冈的烦恼」，在80年代，教廷就批判过「拉丁美洲的解放神学」中那些或强调「系统原罪（Systemic Sin）」，或声称「南美天主教廷是特权阶级一部分（members of the same privileged class）」，「长久以来压迫原住民（long been oppressing indigenous populations since the arrival of Pizzaro）」。
这些词句，是不是一听就产生了 de javu ?
噢，那你真应该看看法国大革命「之前」的妙词绝句：
“Man will only be free when the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest.”
“Christianity preaches only servitude and dependence. Its spirit is so favourable to tyranny that it always profits by such a regime. True Christians are made to be slaves, and they know it and do not much mind. This short life counts for too little in their eyes.”
“Every sensible man, every honorable man must hold the Christian religion in horror.”
"There is no necessity to have recourse to supernatural powers to account for the formation of things."
（这句是我唯一想回的：看到你们这些穿越时空的样板，或者叫做「在同一首命运之歌中重复的回旋曲」，除了 supernatural 之外，咱真的想不到别的了。）
想知道以上那些话谁说的，自己搜。
----------------------
最后问题是：革命党们失败了，还是成功了？
如今的 Holy See 本人，咱就不知道究竟该算是哪一派的胜利。
Ignoring the ghosts of the ‘Great War’ — at our own peril
...two other historic cities loomed large in the background of these meetings, with Western leaders determined neither to repeat the mistakes of Munich in 1938 by appeasing Russian president Putin, nor to reprise the moral failures of Yalta in 1945 by cynically bargaining away the freedoms of East Europeans. Discussions focused on how to tighten economic sanctions on Russia, how to stiffen NATO’s military posture against the threat of Russian aggression, and how to deepen military support for Ukraine in preparation for months if not years of warfare.
But in its singular focus on these lessons of World War II, the West is failing to heed some of the important lessons of World War I.
One of these is that great powers can be dragged unexpectedly into war by the ill-considered actions of smaller allies. In this regard, the potential for things to get out of hand in Kaliningrad should be most worrisome. ...
...
Another lesson from “The Great War” is that alliances meant to protect and deter can also entangle their member states and threaten outsiders. In this regard, NATO’s decision this week to approve Swedish and Finnish membership, its plans to greatly expand deployed forces near Russia, and its reaffirmation that Ukraine and Georgia will one day join the alliance should be subject to considerably more debate than they have received in Washington.
...
Finally, in shaping the West’s response to the war in Ukraine, we should recall a third important lesson from World War I, involving how it ended. The animating principle of the Versailles treaty was retributive: depriving Germany of territory, inflicting pain on its economy, and crippling its defense industry so as to minimize chances that it might once again pose a threat to its neighbors. That this approach boomeranged on the war’s victors so spectacularly, yet so closely mirrors the war objectives that many insist the West should now have for Russia, should give us all pause.
...two other historic cities loomed large in the background of these meetings, with Western leaders determined neither to repeat the mistakes of Munich in 1938 by appeasing Russian president Putin, nor to reprise the moral failures of Yalta in 1945 by cynically bargaining away the freedoms of East Europeans. Discussions focused on how to tighten economic sanctions on Russia, how to stiffen NATO’s military posture against the threat of Russian aggression, and how to deepen military support for Ukraine in preparation for months if not years of warfare.
But in its singular focus on these lessons of World War II, the West is failing to heed some of the important lessons of World War I.
One of these is that great powers can be dragged unexpectedly into war by the ill-considered actions of smaller allies. In this regard, the potential for things to get out of hand in Kaliningrad should be most worrisome. ...
...
Another lesson from “The Great War” is that alliances meant to protect and deter can also entangle their member states and threaten outsiders. In this regard, NATO’s decision this week to approve Swedish and Finnish membership, its plans to greatly expand deployed forces near Russia, and its reaffirmation that Ukraine and Georgia will one day join the alliance should be subject to considerably more debate than they have received in Washington.
...
Finally, in shaping the West’s response to the war in Ukraine, we should recall a third important lesson from World War I, involving how it ended. The animating principle of the Versailles treaty was retributive: depriving Germany of territory, inflicting pain on its economy, and crippling its defense industry so as to minimize chances that it might once again pose a threat to its neighbors. That this approach boomeranged on the war’s victors so spectacularly, yet so closely mirrors the war objectives that many insist the West should now have for Russia, should give us all pause.
卧龙凤雏
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/6/30/n13770288.htm?utm_source=dable
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/6/30/n13770288.htm?utm_source=dable
Ralph Schoellhammer @Raphfel
In the next few years European politicians & pundits should worry less about dismantling the Russian Federation and ensure that it is not the EU that is being dismantled.
Neither the Eurozone or the broader European project can survive a year long recession with energy shortages.
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1543941735142854659
Ralph Schoellhammer @Raphfel
Expect more of this to happen in the future.
The European Union is cruising for a massive legitimacy crisis, especially since Eastern Europeans will increasingly put their national interests before demands from Brussels.
Esp. Poland will start to pursue its own grand strategy.
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1543944243894444032
In the next few years European politicians & pundits should worry less about dismantling the Russian Federation and ensure that it is not the EU that is being dismantled.
Neither the Eurozone or the broader European project can survive a year long recession with energy shortages.
Alexander Stahel @BurggrabenH
Here is a way to grasp what is ahead for most of the EU economy due to gas &, perhaps, electricity shortages.
If Gazprom keeps 60mcm/d through 22/23 at NS1 (-60%), curtailments are needed; if the flows stop in Aug (post maintenance; what I expect), the below applies…
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1543941735142854659
Ralph Schoellhammer @Raphfel
Expect more of this to happen in the future.
The European Union is cruising for a massive legitimacy crisis, especially since Eastern Europeans will increasingly put their national interests before demands from Brussels.
Esp. Poland will start to pursue its own grand strategy.
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24
Lithuania will ignore the EU top court’s verdict and will continue to execute pushbacks against migrants sent to Lithuania by Belarus and Lukashenko.
Interior Minister Agnė Bilotaitė says Lithuania will also continue detaining migrants
She says its a matter of national security
https://twitter.com/Raphfel/status/1543944243894444032
Ben Judah @b_judah
Europe continues to lose the battle for the 21st century. Essentially, Italy never had a growth model for the it; UK’s broke after 2008; Macron failed to qualitatively repower France’s and now Germany’s is at risk. The continent continues to lose competitiveness and power.
https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1543967815094378496
Ben Judah @b_judah
The aim of the Lisbon Strategy, launched in 2000 by the EU heads of state and government, was to make Europe — "the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion".
https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1543971214103814144
Luka Ivan Jukic @lijukic
All of Europe slowly becoming a big Japan. Stagnant, old, geopolitically irrelevant under American security umbrella, but with really nice trains.
https://twitter.com/lijukic/status/1543972448747528193
Europe continues to lose the battle for the 21st century. Essentially, Italy never had a growth model for the it; UK’s broke after 2008; Macron failed to qualitatively repower France’s and now Germany’s is at risk. The continent continues to lose competitiveness and power.
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
Good Morning from #Germany, which is falling as an economic powerhouse on a global scale. Germany’s trade surplus is gone. Foreign trade balance came in at MINUS €1bn in May, which is the 1st negative print since 1991 due to its energy problems & weakness in manufacturing.
https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1543967815094378496
Ben Judah @b_judah
The aim of the Lisbon Strategy, launched in 2000 by the EU heads of state and government, was to make Europe — "the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion".
https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1543971214103814144
Luka Ivan Jukic @lijukic
All of Europe slowly becoming a big Japan. Stagnant, old, geopolitically irrelevant under American security umbrella, but with really nice trains.
Ben Judah @b_judah
Europe continues to lose the battle for the 21st century. Essentially, Italy never had a growth model for the it; UK’s broke after 2008; Macron failed to qualitatively repower France’s and now Germany’s is at risk. The continent continues to lose competitiveness and power.
https://twitter.com/lijukic/status/1543972448747528193
未来十年，欧洲可能面临三次摊牌：1. 对乌克兰摊牌：欧洲没有做好准备接纳乌克兰，因为欧陆当权派缺乏足够的意愿，而乌克兰缺乏足够的资质；2. 东西欧彼此摊牌：两边在欧洲未来发展方向上没有共识，而东欧不愿再做德法的附庸；3. 被美国摊牌：一旦东亚事发，或者美国下一届政府为了预防东亚事发而把防务资源移向太平洋，拜登团伙增强欧洲防卫的许诺将无法兑现，欧洲人会被迫认清他们在地缘政治上的真实价值。
几年前看的一部BBC剧，37 Days:
37 Days - One Month In Summer (Episode 1 of 3)
37 Days - One Week In July (Episode 2 of 3)
37 Days - One Long Weekend (Episode 3 of 3)
37 Days is a British documentary drama miniseries that was first broadcast on BBC Two from 6 to 8 March 2014. The three-part miniseries covers the weeks before World War I, from the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria on 28 June 1914 to the United Kingdom declaring war on Germany on 4 August 1914.
37 Days - One Month In Summer (Episode 1 of 3)
37 Days - One Week In July (Episode 2 of 3)
37 Days - One Long Weekend (Episode 3 of 3)
37 Days is a British documentary drama miniseries that was first broadcast on BBC Two from 6 to 8 March 2014. The three-part miniseries covers the weeks before World War I, from the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria on 28 June 1914 to the United Kingdom declaring war on Germany on 4 August 1914.
气候政治会不会让一些社会逐渐变得ungovernable, 值得观察：
Dutch farmers block food distribution centers over new environmental rules
Dutch farmers angry at government plans to slash emissions used tractors and trucks to blockade supermarket distribution centers on Monday.
Fishermen also blocked some ports in a show of support for farmers.
Their actions were part of ongoing protests against a government proposal to slash emissions of pollutants like nitrogen oxide and ammonia by 50% by 2030.
Provincial governments were given a year to draw up ways of making the cuts, which were expected to include buying out some farms with livestock that produce large amounts of ammonia.
Dutch farmers block food distribution centers over new environmental rules
Dutch farmers angry at government plans to slash emissions used tractors and trucks to blockade supermarket distribution centers on Monday.
Fishermen also blocked some ports in a show of support for farmers.
Their actions were part of ongoing protests against a government proposal to slash emissions of pollutants like nitrogen oxide and ammonia by 50% by 2030.
Provincial governments were given a year to draw up ways of making the cuts, which were expected to include buying out some farms with livestock that produce large amounts of ammonia.
After 30+ Years, NPR Cancels Declaration of Independence Reading
The woke taxpayer-funded social justice warriors at National Public Radio ended a tradition started in 1988 on Monday, canceling the annual July Fourth reading of the Declaration of Independence and instead hosting more liberal thinkers in its broadcast echo chamber for a conversation on "equality."
"This July 4th we break with tradition," tweeted Morning Edition host Leila Fadel. Instead of reading the Declaration of Independence — as National Public Radio has done every Fourth of July for more than three decades — the broadcaster put on an America-bashing feature asking "on this July 4th, what does equality mean?"
...
Leila Fadel @LeilaFadel
This July 4th we break with tradition. Instead of a reading of the Declaration of Independence
@NPRinskeep examines what equality means and has meant in this document. Important segment about our past and future...
https://twitter.com/LeilaFadel/status/1543911485465923585
Graham Lee Brewer @grahambrewer
After years & years of Indigenous people, and Indigenous journalists, asking NPR to stop reading this document every year, they finally put a stop to it. For the first time in over 30 years, Native listeners don’t have to wake up today and hear an NPR host call them a slur.
https://twitter.com/grahambrewer/status/1543965428313165825
The woke taxpayer-funded social justice warriors at National Public Radio ended a tradition started in 1988 on Monday, canceling the annual July Fourth reading of the Declaration of Independence and instead hosting more liberal thinkers in its broadcast echo chamber for a conversation on "equality."
"This July 4th we break with tradition," tweeted Morning Edition host Leila Fadel. Instead of reading the Declaration of Independence — as National Public Radio has done every Fourth of July for more than three decades — the broadcaster put on an America-bashing feature asking "on this July 4th, what does equality mean?"
...
Leila Fadel @LeilaFadel
This July 4th we break with tradition. Instead of a reading of the Declaration of Independence
@NPRinskeep examines what equality means and has meant in this document. Important segment about our past and future...
https://twitter.com/LeilaFadel/status/1543911485465923585
Graham Lee Brewer @grahambrewer
After years & years of Indigenous people, and Indigenous journalists, asking NPR to stop reading this document every year, they finally put a stop to it. For the first time in over 30 years, Native listeners don’t have to wake up today and hear an NPR host call them a slur.
https://twitter.com/grahambrewer/status/1543965428313165825
More Americans Struggling; Inflation, Gas Prices Top Family Concerns
Majority say federal government actions are hurting them
West Long Branch, NJ – The number of Americans who are financially struggling has increased by double digits in the past year as inflation and gas prices top the list of problems faced by the nation’s families. The Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll finds a majority say the federal government’s actions are hurting them and that President Joe Biden’s policies are not benefitting the middle class. Preference for party control of Congress remains divided, with no real movement since the spring.
Majority say federal government actions are hurting them
West Long Branch, NJ – The number of Americans who are financially struggling has increased by double digits in the past year as inflation and gas prices top the list of problems faced by the nation’s families. The Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll finds a majority say the federal government’s actions are hurting them and that President Joe Biden’s policies are not benefitting the middle class. Preference for party control of Congress remains divided, with no real movement since the spring.
Boris Johnson's government in crisis as two Cabinet ministers resign
Two of the U.K.'s top Cabinet ministers resigned in quick succession Tuesday in protest of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's handling of misconduct allegations against a Conservative Party lawmaker.
Why it matters: Johnson's premiership is on the brink of collapse. He survived a no-confidence vote last month over lockdown-breaking parties that have severely damaged his popularity, but will now face new pressure to resign.
Driving the news: In the latest scandal to rock the British government, Johnson's spokesperson admitted Tuesday that the prime minister had been made aware of a sexual misconduct complaint against Conservative MP Chris Pincher in 2019 — but then "forgot" about it.
- Pincher was promoted to deputy chief whip under Johnson's government in February, before dramatically resigning over the weekend over allegations he groped two men at a club.
- Pincher said he had "embarrassed himself" after drinking too much and is now seeking professional support.
- Johnson said Tuesday he "bitterly" regretted the decision not to act on the complaint against Pincher, and that elevating him to a top position "was the wrong thing to do."
What they're saying: Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who resigned as Johnson's Chancellor of the Exchequer once before in 2020, wrote Tuesday that last month's no-confidence vote should have been a "moment for humility, grip and new direction."
- "I regret to say, however, that it is clear to me that this situation will not change under your leadership - and you have therefore lost my confidence too," Javid wrote.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who was once seen as the likeliest successor to Johnson before seeing his own popularity plunge during the "Partygate" scandal, wrote in his resignation letter that the "public rightly expect government to be conducted properly, competently and seriously."
- "I [recognize] this may be my last ministerial job, but I believe these standards are worth fighting for and that is why I am resigning," Sunak wrote.
The latest: Several junior government ministers and MPs who supported Johnson during the no-confidence submitted their resignations after Sunak and Javid — another indication that Johnson's days may be numbered.
Two of the U.K.'s top Cabinet ministers resigned in quick succession Tuesday in protest of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's handling of misconduct allegations against a Conservative Party lawmaker.
Why it matters: Johnson's premiership is on the brink of collapse. He survived a no-confidence vote last month over lockdown-breaking parties that have severely damaged his popularity, but will now face new pressure to resign.
Driving the news: In the latest scandal to rock the British government, Johnson's spokesperson admitted Tuesday that the prime minister had been made aware of a sexual misconduct complaint against Conservative MP Chris Pincher in 2019 — but then "forgot" about it.
- Pincher was promoted to deputy chief whip under Johnson's government in February, before dramatically resigning over the weekend over allegations he groped two men at a club.
- Pincher said he had "embarrassed himself" after drinking too much and is now seeking professional support.
- Johnson said Tuesday he "bitterly" regretted the decision not to act on the complaint against Pincher, and that elevating him to a top position "was the wrong thing to do."
What they're saying: Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who resigned as Johnson's Chancellor of the Exchequer once before in 2020, wrote Tuesday that last month's no-confidence vote should have been a "moment for humility, grip and new direction."
- "I regret to say, however, that it is clear to me that this situation will not change under your leadership - and you have therefore lost my confidence too," Javid wrote.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who was once seen as the likeliest successor to Johnson before seeing his own popularity plunge during the "Partygate" scandal, wrote in his resignation letter that the "public rightly expect government to be conducted properly, competently and seriously."
- "I [recognize] this may be my last ministerial job, but I believe these standards are worth fighting for and that is why I am resigning," Sunak wrote.
The latest: Several junior government ministers and MPs who supported Johnson during the no-confidence submitted their resignations after Sunak and Javid — another indication that Johnson's days may be numbered.
Wishful thinking:
Russian cosmonauts board ISS wearing colours of Ukraine flag
19 Mar 2022
Reality:
Russia releases photo of cosmonauts holding Luhansk flag on ISS
4 Jul 2022
Russian cosmonauts board ISS wearing colours of Ukraine flag
19 Mar 2022
Reality:
Russia releases photo of cosmonauts holding Luhansk flag on ISS
4 Jul 2022